Perhaps the biggest story of the 2025 men’s NCAA tournament was the lack of a true Cinderella story. It was as chalky a tournament as you’ll find, and even the one, big seed-line upset (Colorado State over Memphis) didn’t turn into a deep run thanks to Derik Queen’s round of 32 heroics. That produced plenty of takes about the future role of Cinderella in the tournament. Has NIL and the transfer portal made it impossible for a mid-major run like the ones we’ve become accustomed to seeing? While it’s certainly possible that changes to the sport’s landscape may cut down on Cinderella runs long term, it’s too early to write off big upsets as a thing of the past. After all, we had more massive upsets in the previous few years before 2025 than almost any other stretch in the history of the event.
So who are the best candidates to wear this year’s magic slipper? Sports Illustrated is here to help you find them, and maybe help you win your bracket pool in the process. Here’s a look at the top 10 candidates to blow up your bracket:
1. VCU (No. 11 Seed, South Region)
VCU got only a shred of the attention Saint Louis did in the Atlantic 10 this season, but the two ended up tied for the regular-season title and VCU won the conference tournament. After starting just 11–6, the Rams won 16 of 17 down the stretch to surge into the NCAA tournament and look increasingly like a team no one wants to play.
The major catalysts of the Rams’ improvement is the play of sophomore guards Terrence Hill Jr. and Brandon Jennings. Hill is an elite bucket-getter who takes care of the ball and scores it efficiently, while Jennings is a monster on the defensive end who changes games in certain matchups. Add in highly skilled big Lazar Djokovic and a stable of big wings that have defensive versatility, and you have a group that looks really dangerous at the moment.
VCU has better guards than North Carolina, whose backcourt has been inconsistent all season. The matchup the Rams likely couldn’t solve would have been with likely top-five NBA draft pick Caleb Wilson, but Wilson is out for the season with a broken thumb. VCU has the bodies to throw at Henri Veesaar and looks like a very real live underdog to potentially pull an upset in the first round against the Tar Heels. And if that happens, don’t be shocked if the Rams scare Illinois, too. Jennings is a good potential Keaton Wagler defender, and the Illini have struggled of late.
2. Santa Clara (No. 10 Seed, Midwest Region)
The Broncos have been knocking on the door of the Big Dance for a while under Herb Sendek with 20-plus wins per year in their last six full seasons and finally broke through this season for their first NCAA tournament berth in 30 years. And as Cinderellas go, they’re as battle-tested as they come, having played three power-conference opponents and 13 total games against top-100 KenPom foes.
From a pure talent perspective, Santa Clara is more than capable of making a deep run. Freshman forward Allen Graves comes off the bench, but has the NBA intrigued playing a Cameron Boozer–like role for the Broncos. Big wing Elijah Mahi could get a look at the next level, too. Guards Christian Hammond and Sash Gavalyugov are studs, and 7-footer Bukky Oboye can change games as a shot blocker. The Broncos were the WCC’s most efficient offense this season and have plenty of firepower to keep pace with Kentucky.
The biggest concern in backing Santa Clara as a Cinderella is its poor free throw disparity. The Broncos get to the line at one of the 10 lowest rates in the country while simultaneously fouling at a high rate, a symptom of their aggressive defense that looks to force turnovers. Santa Clara has the depth to deal with foul trouble, but sending teams to the stripe over 20 times per game is a poor recipe especially against a Kentucky team that had one of the highest free throw rates in the SEC.
That said, it’s a relatively manageable pod for the Broncos. Kentucky is beatable, especially in its current form, and a second-round matchup with Iowa State would be intriguing given how skilled Santa Clara’s frontcourt is, a nice asset to have against a Cyclones defense that forces you into scrambled situations. A Sweet 16 run is not out of the question here.
3. Northern Iowa (No. 12 Seed, East Region)
The Panthers are a familiar Cinderella, having gone to the Sweet 16 in 2010 and winning games in the tournament in ’15 and ’16. And in rare fashion for a mid-major, Northern Iowa has managed to retain its head coach from those runs. Ben Jacobson has long been one of the best coaches outside the power conferences in the sport and is just three wins from 400 in his Northern Iowa career.
This season’s team was the No. 6 seed in the Missouri Valley tournament but absolutely dominated in St. Louis, trailing for a grand total of 34 seconds in four games. The Panthers tanked in the standings in January when talented power forward Tristan Smith missed time with an injury, losing six of eight games he sat out, before surging in February and March. On the whole this season, Northern Iowa is more than 16 points per 100 possessions better with Smith on the floor than off, an offensive catalyst who brings everything together with his physical attacks of the basket. Add in star guard Trey Campbell’s bucket-getting capability and plenty of wing sharpshooters, and you have an offense far more potent than its analytical profile suggests.
Plus, Northern Iowa fits the profile of a team built for March. It plays one of the slowest tempos in the country, limiting possessions and making it hard to go on the type of game-changing runs. It has real roster continuity, bringing back all 11 players with eligibility remaining from last season. And they can really defend, ranking in the top 25 nationally in defensive efficiency on KenPom.
That said, they didn’t get many favors playing at St. John’s team entering the tournament on a heater, winners of 19 of 20 including a 20-point win over UConn in the Big East title game. That first-round matchup should be a slugfest: Northern Iowa controlling the pace would give them a chance. A win there could set the stage for Northern Iowa to take on Kansas State in a rematch of an iconic game from the 2010 NCAA tournament.
Northern Iowa scores 16 more points per 100 possessions with forward Tristan Smith on the floor than when he is off. | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images
4. Saint Louis (No. 9 Seed, Midwest Region)
Josh Schertz and Robbie Avila were the snubs of the 2024 NCAA tournament at Indiana State. This time, the Billikens left no doubt, surging to 24–1 (then finishing 28–5) and eventually landing as a No. 9 seed in this year’s Dance.
The obvious pitch for the Billikens to be this year’s March darlings is their shooting. Saint Louis shoots 40.5% as a team from deep, second nationally, and does so on high volume. Four guys shoot 40% or better from deep, including Xavier transfer Trey Green’s ridiculous 47% for his 90 makes. Having a big man in Avila that can really pass with so many elite shooters around him puts incredible pressure on the defense, and athletic cutters like Dion Brown, Kellen Thames and Amari McCottry take advantage of that elite spacing.
Those athletic wings are also a big reason for the Billikens being a top-50 defense on KenPom. This isn’t the biggest team, but Saint Louis does an outstanding job of protecting the paint and forcing teams to settle for tough threes on the perimeter. And with Saint Louis’s depth, Schertz has the ability to really tailor lineups to different matchups. He can play bigger with Paul Otieno at center, smaller with more versatile wings, or lean more into shooting with Ishan Sharma and Brady Dunlap off the bench.
That said, Saint Louis has shown some cracks of late. After going 24–1, they had a head-scratching loss to Rhode Island and got blown away by Dayton and George Mason before losing a heartbreaker to Dayton in the A-10 tournament. Is this the classic example of a team that peaked too early? Those late losses left Saint Louis in a difficult seeding spot. After a manageable first game against Georgia, the Billikens would take on Michigan in the second round. Of the No. 1 seeds, that’s probably the best matchup possible for them given their ability to pull bigs away from the rim, but it’s still a very tall order.
5. South Florida (No. 11 Seed, East Region)
For the first time since the Big East fractured, South Florida is headed to the NCAA tournament. It’s all thanks to a rapid rebuild engineered by head coach Bryan Hodgson, who built one of the most talented teams outside the power conferences in one spring and ripped through the American Conference down the stretch. The Bulls haven’t lost since Jan. 31 at Temple and won six of their final seven games by 15 points or more.
USF possesses a scary combination of being able to dominate athletically around the rim with elite three-point shooting. In the backcourt, Wes Enis and Joseph Pinion each made 100-plus threes this season, with Enis making 10 threes in a game twice. And almost any three-point shot is a good shot when you rank in the top 10 nationally in offensive rebounding rate like USF does. Izaiyah Nelson is an absolute monster on the boards, and some of the Bulls’ athletic wings crash the glass hard as well.
But what has really allowed South Florida to turn the corner lately has been its improvement on the defensive end. The Bulls are a top-25 defense nationally since Feb. 1. Teams have really struggled to score on them at the rim of late, and they’ve also been very disruptive forcing turnovers. Their first-round opponent, Louisville, was one of the sloppiest teams with the ball in ACC play, making that a potential matchup to watch.
Talent-wise, South Florida is as equipped as anyone to make a Cinderella push. Several players could have landed at high-majors in the portal but instead chose to play for Hodgson. That gets negated some against a Louisville team that is loaded with top-tier high school and portal talent, but man-for-man South Florida can match up from a size and athleticism standpoint with Louisville better than just about anyone outside the power conferences. That matchup figures to be one of the most up-tempo, high-scoring games of the first weekend.
6. Utah State (No. 9 Seed, West Region)
Utah State has become an NCAA tournament mainstay, going dancing now in six of the last seven tournaments. The Aggies have yet to truly break through though, winning only a game in one of those five trips and that victory coming two days before getting blitzed by Purdue in the second round. Will this year be different?
Mason Falslev is the type of player primed to be a March star. He’s one of college basketball’s do-everything guys, stuffing the stat sheet with rebounds, assists and steals while still being one of the nation’s most efficient scorers. He’s on his third college coach at Utah State and has stayed loyal to the place even as suitors have attempted to push him into the portal each of the last two offseasons. If there’s a player in this tournament who deserves a deep run, it’s him.
Falslev is the engine of a legitimately elite offensive unit, one that ranks in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency. They’re incredibly opportunistic in transition which plays well in March, and head coach Jerrod Calhoun has done a great job of recruiting high-feel guys who turn good shots into great ones.
The issue is, for true Cinderella potential, Utah State has to find a way past Arizona in the round of 32. That figures to be a very tall order, particularly with Utah State’s athletic limitations in the frontcourt. The Aggies have a great chance to win their opener against Villanova, but there’s a chance it could get ugly against the Wildcats in the second round.
7. Miami (Ohio) (No. 11 Seed, Midwest Region)
These rankings would be remiss not to include Miami (Ohio) after its perfect regular season. They’re one of the most difficult teams to evaluate in the field. Miami has run incredibly hot in close games (likely part luck, part skill) and has feasted on a soft schedule, but 31–1 is 31–1. If it were easy to do, we’d see it happen a lot more often. Its reward for that? A First Four matchup with SMU on Wednesday, hoping to play its way into the main draw against Tennessee on Friday.
Beyond the “winning intangibles” angle with Miami, the strongest case for Miami as this year’s Cinderella is its skill level on the offensive end. Shooting forwards Brant Byers and Almar Atlason are major matchup problems that pull bigger defenders away from the rim and open up the floor for drives from star guard Peter Suder. The RedHawks shoot elite percentages from both two and three, rarely turn the ball over, and get to the line at a high clip. To an extent, they’ll need to outscore teams in this tournament to advance, but Miami has the juice on that end of the floor to get hot.
That said, the concern with Miami is that every team they play in this tournament will be by far the best and most talented opponent to date. How will the RedHawks deal with being at a substantial athletic disadvantage against a team in SMU that can really hunt them off the dribble with stud guards like Boopie Miller? Can Miami get much done around the rim with 7-footer Samet Yigitoglu patrolling the paint? And even if Miami can get by the Mustangs, the idea of facing a team with Tennessee’s level of physicality is certainly a disconcerting one.
But even with their flaws, this is obviously not a team you want to see in a close game late. Until the loss to UMass, Miami’s biggest strength had been how clutch they had been in end-of-game situations. Suder in particular has been absolute nails in the clutch. Don’t be surprised to see some March “onions” from him this week.
Miami (Ohio) guard Brant Byers is a major matchup problem. | Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
8. Hofstra (No. 13 Seed, Midwest Region)
Back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since Jay Wright was coaching on Long Island, the Pride may have what it takes to make noise in the Big Dance after coming out of the CAA tournament as the No. 3 seed.
The biggest reason to believe the Pride could pull an upset or two this week is their tremendous guard play. Junior guard Cruz Davis, who spent the first two years of his career playing for Rick Pitino, is among the nation’s best bucket-getters. He has scored 30-plus points five times this season and is capable of scoring at all three levels. But the star of the Pride’s CAA tournament run was his backcourt mate, diminutive freshman Preston Edmead. Edmead is an incredible shotmaker with elite ability off the dribble. Teams may have one strong perimeter defender to take one of the two out of the game, but it will be hard to slow down both.
Hofstra’s defense is built to protect the paint, something the Pride did well in early season wins over Syracuse and Pittsburgh. With 7-footer Silas Sunday and 6′ 10″ Victory Onuetu splitting time at center, Speedy Claxton’s team has the size to battle around the rim with Alabama and make life difficult for the Tide around the basket. Their size could also cause Alabama some serious issues on the glass. Hofstra is an excellent offensive rebounding team, an area Alabama struggles.
Remarkably, all 10 losses for the Pride this season have come by eight points or fewer. You can at least expect this Hofstra team to be in it late against the Tide, and once you get that far Hofstra has a real chance at the upset with their guards’ shotmaking ability.
9. Akron (No. 12 Seed, Midwest Region)
The Zips have been a mainstay in the Big Dance of late under John Groce and claimed the MAC’s automatic bid in a thriller over Toledo. Is this the year they advance in the Big Dance?
This is the most electric offense of Groce’s time at Akron, one built on elite three-point shooting. Tavari Johnson, Shammah Scott and Bowen Hardman have each made over 70 threes this season on elite efficiency. Even starting center Amani Lyles can burn you from distance, having made more than one three per game at 38%. It’s a fast, high-variance style of offense that can stack up buckets in a hurry and put a ton of pressure on a higher-seeded team in a tournament setting.
The concern comes on the defensive end, where top-tier competition has shredded the Zips the last two years. Purdue scored 1.34 points per possession against them in November, and last year Arizona put up 1.24 points per possession in its blowout NCAA tournament win over Akron. This is a small backcourt that will likely get hunted defensively off the dribble, and athletic wings Evan and Eric Mahaffey are not enough to single-handedly keep the defense afloat. If Akron wants to beat Texas Tech, it will likely need to find ways to score with them.
Akron is one of the best overall mid-majors in the field, with a top-65 ranking on KenPom and just two losses since mid-December. There are some red flags here though. The Zips are the shortest team in the field, have struggled in “up” games in recent years and play an up-tempo brand of basketball that doesn’t always translate to situations where you’re the underdog.
That said, the matchup here is about as favorable as Akron could have hoped for. Especially without JT Toppin, the Red Raiders don’t have the same size up front to overwhelm, and star Christian Anderson is coming off a groin injury in the Big 12 tournament. If he’s not 100%, Tech becomes vulnerable, especially against a team that can shoot like Akron.
10. High Point (No. 12 Seed, West Region)
High Point let many Cinderella chasers down last season when it couldn’t upset Purdue in the first round. Can the Panthers redeem themselves this time around?
High Point has lost just once since Dec. 15, winners of 14 straight and 22 of 23. Flynn Clayman’s team has largely done it by simply overwhelming far less talented Big South foes, with a roster loaded with proven production at the Division I level thanks to NIL resources that lap their league. They have transfers from Kentucky, Arizona and UConn coming off their bench, and four of their five starters were high-level mid-major starters at other destinations before joining the Panthers.
High Point wins on turnover margin (ranking top five nationally both in turning you over and taking care of the ball) and attacking the rim. Traditionally, that hasn’t been a model for tons of tournament success. In T-Rank’s similar profiles tool, just one of the 10 most comparable teams to High Point since 2008 advanced in the tournament (’24 James Madison). But who did that ’24 JMU team beat? Wisconsin, the same team the Panthers will draw in the first round. Wisconsin is more dynamic in the backcourt now with Nick Boyd and John Blackwell than they were two years ago, but Greg Gard will certainly be having nightmares going through the film of High Point and seeing some of the similarities in terms of depth, athleticism and turnover dominance.
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