Bracket busters: Sometimes you love them, sometimes you hate them. Most of the time, you don’t see them coming.
Yet, we’re trying to provide a remedy for that, helping you identify teams early that could make or break your bracket. We’re not necessarily advising you to pick these teams deep or pick them to go out early; we’re just saying, pick wisely.
Kansas
Houston coach Kelvin Sampson said it best earlier this season when he remarked, “Kansas is one of those teams that you just never know.”
We hear you, coach, and we agree. Which KU shows up in the NCAA Tournament is anyone’s guess. The Jayhawks have been brilliant and baffling this season. They won three games in three days at the Players Era showcase just before Thanksgiving, without Darryn Peterson, who’s projected as the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. That implied even better things were to come when Peterson (19.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 44.2 FG percentage) joined the team.
Instead, they’ve been, to put it mildly and kindly, inconsistent. They lost at UCF and West Virginia and dropped a home game to Cincinnati — and they had Peterson for all of those games. Add the fact that coach Bill Self continues to struggle with health issues and missed the Jan. 20 game at Colorado.
It’s been a weird year in Lawrence, to say the least. Peterson is brilliant when he plays, and 6-foot-10 forward Flory Bidunga can erase mistakes on the defensive end. (Flory, who averages 13.5 points and 9.2 rebounds, was the Big 12 defensive player of the year.) Still, is it enough for KU to make a run?
Kentucky
The Wildcats reportedly spent $22 million on their roster, and to say they’ve underwhelmed is the understatement of the season. The low point came Dec. 5, when Gonzaga thumped Kentucky 94-59. Third-year coach Mark Pope is under pressure to get past the Sweet 16. On paper, the UK has the talent to do that, but whether they can put it together this month remains to be seen.
The Wildcats are wildly unpredictable: Since Feb. 14, they’ve beaten one ranked team, lost to the same ranked team twice and lost to three different unranked teams. For Kentucky to do anything noteworthy in the Tournament, someone other than guards Otega Oweh (18.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.8 spg) and Denzel Aberdeen (13.2 ppg, 3.6 apg) must step up.
Miami shoots 39.16 percent from 3, eighth-best in Division I, and third-best among tournament teams. (Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
Miami (Ohio)
Are the Redhawks a legit Cinderella contender with a run in them? Or an overhyped, underchallenged team, evidenced by their 340th-ranked strength of schedule?
There’s probably no team in the tournament that’ll spark more debate than Miami. As ESPN’s Scott Van Pelt said, they’re “the team America loves … or loves to pick apart.”
Regardless of where you fall on the Miami love meter, just know that when the Redhawks get hot from 3, they’re pretty tough to beat. Miami shoots 39.16 percent from 3, eighth-best in Division I, and third-best in the tournament behind Saint Louis and Texas Tech. They make just over 10 a game and lead the country in effective field goal percentage (61.2).
There’s also an argument to be made that after finally losing a game — the Redhawks won 31 straight in the regular season, then got upset by Massachusetts in their conference tournament quarterfinals, making the MAC a two-bid league — the pressure is off them going into the First Four. That might make them more dangerous.
Gonzaga
Believe it or not, but this modern-day blue blood enters the 2026 tournament somewhat under the radar. The Zags have been beset by injuries all season, and are still missing big man Braden Huff, who hasn’t played since Jan. 8 because of a left knee injury. Their other big man, Graham Ike (19.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 57.3 FG percentage) is having an All-American-worthy season, but if Gonzaga is going to reach its 10th Sweet 16 in the last 11 tournaments, it will do so with its defense, which KenPom ranks No. 9 in the country.
The key offensively will be whoever is running GU’s offense. Too many times this season, point guards Mario Saint-Supéry (8.6 ppg, 3.6 apg) and Braeden Smith (5.4 ppg, 3.8 apg) haven’t been scoring threats. When those guys can put the ball in the hoop, Gonzaga can play with anyone.
Don’t discount the belief factor, either: Everyone on the roster went to Spokane because they expected to make deep NCAA Tournament runs, and sometimes, winning the mental game goes a long way in March.
BYU
Would you want to play an angry AJ Dybantsa? Me, either.
The sixth-seeded Cougars started the season strong, but fell significantly down the seed line after fading in the Big 12. They don’t have a favorable path to the Sweet 16 or beyond, but no one will want to play them the first weekend. Dybantsa will be the best player on the floor no matter who they match up against, and that’s a lot to prepare for. He leads the country at 25.3 points per game, while grabbing 6.7 rebounds, dishing 3.8 assists and shooting 51.3 percent from the field.
However, Dybantsa is hardly the only player you have to worry about. Yes, the Cougars are missing guard Richie Saunders, who tore his ACL and is out for the season. Yet, point guard Robert Wright III (18.2 ppg, 4.7 apg, 42.2 3-point percentage) is a handful and loves the big moment. He hit the game-winning 3 against Clemson on Dec. 9 in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden, and in a huge game in Provo on March 7, he scored 23 of his 27 points in the second half to upset then-No. 10 Texas Tech.
In the paint, 6-foot-8 forward Keba Keita (6.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 67.7 FG percentage) isn’t a dominant big, but he’s strong, which means scoring on him isn’t easy.
