Are NIL and the transfer portal causing a reduction in upsets in the NCAA Tournament?
Ultimately, we don’t have enough information to make a call on that, yet. We’re only a few years into college teams being able to pay players, and name, image and likeness rules are constantly evolving. But last year was one of the chalkiest tournaments we’ve seen, with only four total upsets (using the definition of a team beating another that is five seed lines or mor ahead of them, i.e. 11 over 6). The year before had seven in the first round but only two in the rounds thereafter.
There is an argument to be made that this system encourages players who thrive at mid-major schools to transfer to power conference schools with higher NIL budgets. By the time those players are experienced and ready to lead an NCAA Tournament team, they’re doing so for teams already stacked with talent.
If upsets are getting fewer and farther between, that means each one is more precious. Nicole Auerbach and John Fanta discussed these developments and teams that should be on upset alert in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
No. 11 South Florida vs. No. 6 Louisville
Fanta picked this upset where Auerbach didn’t. He pointed to Bryan Hodgson as a coaching star who can help the Knights against a banged up, inconsistent Louisville squad.
“This is a team that has terrific guard play,” Fanta said. “Wes Enis, for those who don’t know, can just flat out score it, Izaiyah Nelson as well. Their pace, their ability to also swarm the ball, I think is going to give Louisville some problems.”
No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 North Carolina
Fanta and Auerbach both like the Rams in this one. No Caleb Wilson is a concern for the Tar Heels, and VCU can carry on the tradition of Atlantic 10 teams thriving in the NCAA Tournament.
Fanta especially liked what head coach Phil Martelli Jr. brings to the Rams.
“Whenever I look at an upset candidate, I say ‘OK, do they have multiple ways that they can get made threes?’ And they {VCU] do,” Fanta said.
No. 14 Penn vs. No. 3 Illinois
Auerbach was willing to go further than Fanta on this one because of TJ Power, the junior forward who dropped 44 points in the Ivy League championship game.
She also pointed to Fran McCaffery, who never made it past the first weekend at Iowa but is now leading his alma mater.
“Wouldn’t that be something, against a team that he is familiar with in Illinois from the Big Ten, a team that was pretty inconsistent down the stretch, lost three of five before we head into the NCAA Tournament,” Auerbach said. It’s a weird pick, but listen, that would create so much chaos in the South Region. And I always root for chaos.”
No. 10 Santa Clara vs. No. 7 Kentucky
While not technically an upset by the five-seed line rule, the name value of these two programs does paint a picture of a David and a Goliath. Kentucky is one of the most accomplished programs in college basketball history, while Santa Clara is making the tournament for the first time since Steve Nash ran the offense in 1996.
However, both Auerbach and Fanta like the Broncos against a Wildcats team that has not been consistent over the course of the season.
