Stock market today: TSX, Wall Street futures edge up ahead of Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve decisions
Markets update
- Global markets were higher as steadying crude prices boosted sentiment, while investors awaited interest rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada.
- March futures on the S&P/TSX composite index were up 0.4 per cent as of 06:12 a.m. ET in low volumes.
- U.S. stock index futures rose, buoyed by a modest drop in oil prices, while jittery investors awaited an update on the monetary policy and the economy from the Federal Reserve to assess the impact of the Middle East conflict.
- Oil prices fell after Iraq resumed crude exports via pipeline to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, providing hopes for some relief amid disrupted supply from Gulf producers.
- The pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.6 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.25 per cent, Germany’s DAX gained 0.82 per cent and France’s CAC 40 climbed 1.08 per cent.
- In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 2.87 per cent higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced 0.61 per cent.
03/18/26 08:12
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s thank you to programmers received as ‘tone-deaf and borderline vindictive’
– Scott Barlow
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CEO of OpenAI Sam Altman speaks during the 2026 Infrastructure Summit of government officials, corporate executives, and labor leaders, in Washington, D.C., on March 11.Kylie Cooper/Reuters
Sam Altman’s heart might have been in the right place, thanking programmers for their contribution to the industry, but the message was interpreted as a sanctimonious good-bye and the result was a lot of harsh language according to a Futurism report.
“Thousands of tech workers are being laid off, from Atlassian slashing 1,600 jobs to Jack Dorsey’s fintech company Block firing almost half its workforce. Meta’s latest round of layoffs is rumoured to affect an astonishing 20 percent or more of the company. A common thread among these devastating cuts is industry leaders touting the capabilities of AI, In a Tuesday tweet that can only be described as twisting the knife, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman argued that “I have so much gratitude to people who wrote extremely complex software character-by-character.”
“It already feels difficult to remember how much effort it really took,” he added. “Thank you for getting us to this point.” It’s a particularly tone-deaf and borderline vindictive missive that suggests Altman has long given up on the idea of fairly compensating content creators and coders for their work. It’s no secret that OpenAI’s AI models were trained on data that was shamelessly scraped from the web, a controversial practice that has triggered a litany of copyright infringement lawsuits. Altman’s remarks drew an overwhelmingly negative reaction.”
03/18/26 08:10
What every Canadian investor needs to know today
– S.R. Slobodian
Global markets were higher as steadying crude prices boosted sentiment, while investors awaited interest rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada.
Wall Street futures were in positive territory after major North American markets closed up yesterday.
TSX futures were in the black as investors expect the Bank of Canada to keep rates steady.
In Canada, investors are getting results from Power Corp. of Canada.
On Wall Street, markets are watching earnings from Micron Technology Inc., General Mills Inc. and Macy’s Inc.
The Fed is widely forecast to keep its policy steady but the debate will very much centre on whether conflict with Iran is likely to disrupt economic growth, threaten more persistent inflation or create a confounding mix of economic slowing and rising prices.
“Consensus still points to the median dot plot showing one 25-basis-point cut for 2026, aligning with current market pricing,” said IG analyst Tony Sycamore.
“That said, there’s a decent chance the dots could shift more hawkish, perhaps even to zero cuts, if the committee views the oil shock as leading to stickier inflation.”
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.6 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.25 per cent, Germany’s DAX gained 0.82 per cent and France’s CAC 40 climbed 1.08 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 2.87 per cent higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced 0.61 per cent.
03/18/26 08:03
Citi analysts sees ‘Three Reasons to Like Netflix’
– Scott Barlow
Citi analyst Jason Bazinet has resumed coverage of Netflix Inc. with a report called “Three Reasons to Like Netflix.”
“Three Reasons to Like Netflix — 1) We expect 2026 operating margins to rise ~40 bps above consensus. 2) We believe NFLX is likely to raise US prices in 4Q26. 3) Lack of large-scale M&A may increase the opportunity for capital returns.
One Risk: LT Ad Revenue — Current consensus estimates call for ad revenue of ~$11 billion in 2030, with ~$2 billion of annual growth between 2027 to 2030. We believe annual growth may come in closer to ~$1.5 billion, with 2030 ad revenue of ~$9 billion. As such, we suspect Street ad revenue estimates may fall. Updating our Model — We are updating our model to reflect 4Q25 results and our latest outlook. We made three key changes: 1) raised revenue, 2) lifted OI margins, and 3) rolled forward our valuation from 2026 to 2027. Following our update, we resume coverage with a Buy and a target price of $115, akin to 28x 2027 EPS.”
03/18/26 07:59
Good quarter from Lululemon despite challengers
– Scott Barlow
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A logo is displayed above a Lululemon outlet retail store at Bicester Village in Oxfordshire, Britain.Hollie Adams/Reuters
Citi analyst Paul Lejeuz details a good quarter for Lululemon but also recognizes challenges.
“4Q EPS beat consensus, driven by better sales. China comps were well above consensus/our est (+26% vs our +8%E) and Americas comps were weak but above consensus/our est (-2% vs our -5%E). Mgmt plans to add more newness to help improve the Americas biz (which they believe will drive more full price sales), and there have been some early successes. With its weak 1Q guidance (Americas -MSD), we believe mgmt has derisked 1Q, and the combination of a looming CEO announcement and the stock trading at ~7x our F26E EBITDA, skews the risk/reward positive near-term. Still, the challenging category dynamics(with brands such as Alo and Vuori gaining significant share over the past few yrs) means a turnaround won’t be as easy (and we don’t know the future direction of the next CEO). We see the biggest F26 risk that introducing more newness does not drive consistent improvement in full price sales.”
03/18/26 06:40
Global stocks up on lower oil and AI optimism
European shares rose for a third day on Wednesday as easing oil prices offered relief ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting that could give investors clues on how policymakers are weighing growth and inflation risks amid the Middle East conflict.
Some renewed optimism around artificial intelligence stocks also lifted sentiment.
Focus remained on the conflict in the Middle East, with Israel intensifying its offensive by killing Iran’s security chief and Iran striking oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates. A senior Iranian official said the new supreme leader had rejected de-escalation offers, signaling no quick end to a war that has triggered a global oil shock.
Oil prices eased after Iraq and Kurdish authorities agreed to resume exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan port, though the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed. Brent crude futures fell 0.2 per cent to $102.93 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate eased 1.7 per cent to $94.5.
The pullback bolstered equities. Europe’s STOXX 600 gained 0.6 per cent, while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1.8 per cent earlier.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.5 per cent and Nasdaq futures gained 0.7 per cent, supported by expectations of strong earnings from chipmaker Micron Technology due later on Wednesday, with investors awaiting comments on chip shortages and pricing.
Sentiment was also lifted by reports that Nvidia had won Chinese approval to sell its second-most-powerful AI chips. Earlier this week, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said revenue from its AI chips could reach at least $1 trillion through 2027.
– Reuters
03/18/26 06:30
TSX futures edge up ahead of Fed, BoC decisions
Futures linked to Canada’s benchmark index inched up on Wednesday as easing oil prices lifted sentiment, with investors awaiting monetary policy decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada later in the day.
March futures on the S&P/TSX composite index were up 0.4 per cent as of 06:12 a.m. ET in low volumes, while futures tracking Wall Street’s main indexes also ticked up.
Oil prices slipped on Wednesday, after Iraq resumed crude shipments from its Kirkuk fields to Turkey’s Ceyhan port via pipeline, easing some strain on global supplies. Still, Brent crude futures were trading above $100 a barrel as tensions in the Middle East showed no sign of easing.
The retreat in crude prices, however, could limit gains on the commodities-heavy TSX.
The recent surge in oil prices has lifted Canadian energy stocks, sending them up more than 33 per cent so far this year. While the crude spike has revived inflationary concerns globally, Canada is expected to be relatively insulated from the turbulence as it is a net exporter.
Against this backdrop, markets will be monitoring comments from the BoC and Fed policymakers on the trajectory of monetary policy. Both central banks are widely expected to keep rates unchanged.
Toronto’s S&P/TSX Composite Index ended higher on Tuesday, after clocking its biggest one-day jump since February 26, before the Iran war began, on Monday.
On the day, gold held steady as investors stayed on the sidelines, while copper prices dipped.
– Reuters
03/18/26 05:30
Oil falls after Iraq resumes oil exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan port
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A general view of oil tanks at Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan on February 19, 2014.Umit Bektas/Reuters
Oil prices fell on Wednesday after Iraq resumed crude exports via pipeline to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, providing hopes for some relief amid disrupted supply from Gulf producers.
With no signs of de-escalation in the Iran conflict, benchmark Brent futures prices have settled above $100 per barrel for the past four sessions.
After rising more than 3 per cent on Tuesday, Brent futures were down 31 cents, or 0.3 per cent, to $103.12 a barrel by 9:02 a.m. GMT (4 a.m. ET) on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped $1.56, or 1.6 per cent, to $94.65.
In Iraq, North Oil Company sources said exports had resumed via pipeline after Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) agreed on Tuesday to restart flows. Two oil officials said last week that Iraq was seeking to pump at least 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) through the port.
“Despite this development, supply relief remains limited, with Iraq’s production at roughly one-third of pre-crisis levels and tanker traffic through Hormuz still largely restricted,” MUFG analyst Soojin Kim said.
– Reuters
03/18/26 05:00
Tuesday markets recap: Major indexes gain as oil edges higher
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Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Monday.TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images
The S&P 500 climbed 0.25 per cent on Tuesday to end the session at 6,716.09 points. The Nasdaq gained 0.47 per cent to 22,479.53 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.10 per cent to 46,993.26 points.
Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes rose, led by energy. Modest changes in crude oil prices kept investors from making big moves ahead of the Fed decision on interest rates Wednesday.
The S&P/TSX composite index ended up 0.16 per cent at 32,929.09. Energy stocks climbed 1.1 per cent, their longest winning streak since late January. Tech stocks gained 1.8 per cent.
Oil prices rose as renewed Iranian attacks on the United Arab Emirates heightened concerns about the worsening outlook for global supply if there is no quick resolution to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Brent crude futures settled up US$3.21, or 3.2 per cent, to US$103.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up US$2.71, or 2.9 per cent, to US$96.21.
The loonie was trading 0.1 per cent lower at 72.99 U.S. cents. Canadian government 10-year bond yields fell 2.7 basis points to 3.407 per cent.
– Globe staff, wires
