The Association’s experts reflect on Kevin Durant’s scoring totals and his overall career.
How many players get the chance to top Michael Jordan in anything basketball-related, from championships to MVPs to even shoe sales?
Not often. Except in the coming days, he’ll get leapfrogged by Kevin Durant, who will climb the mountaintop known as the NBA’s all-time career scoring list and give it some fresh Air. Durant needs 69 points to surpass Jordan (32,292 career points) entering Wednesday’s game against the Lakers (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). That would put Durant at No. 5 overall on the chart and, even for a scoring savant like Durant, this is quite the flex.
But not unexpected. Durant, 37, has been trending in this direction through much of a career filled with big bucket games, a stream of seasonal scoring averages in the high 20s and the type of longevity that creates such opportunities.
“It’s pretty cool to be in the same category as some of the greats that ever played the game,” Durant said. “They’ve added so much to the game that have inspired me to stick around this long.”
Durant is like most of his generation who missed Jordan’s prime. They mostly know Jordan from videos or sneakers, although Durant grew up near Washington, D.C., and said he saw Jordan in person once Jordan finished his career with the Wizards.
“I just remember the excitement in the building, the excitement around town,” Durant said. “The reaction to Mike was just different, man.”
It’s a perfect basketball storm that created Durant into a force; he’s among the handful of elites who can score a variety of ways — at the rim, mid-range, 3-pointers, off the dribble, catch and shoot. That assortment made him so lethal for almost two decades and a tough assignment even for the best defenders.
This diversity gives him something in common with virtually everyone else among the top 10 scorers, some of whom are recognized as all-time greats. When the defense took something away from those players, they chose another method, which was either just as successful or close enough. That explains the Kevin Durant experience.
And understand, Durant missed the entire 2019-20 season and played just 35 games in 2020-21 after recovering from Achilles surgery. If not for that pause between stints with the Golden State Warriors and Brooklyn Nets, his rise on the list would’ve been sooner.
What’s also impressive about Durant over his career is his ability to blend in quickly and make a scoring impact, no matter the system, coach or team. He managed to score in bunches next to Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City and alongside Stephen Curry with the Warriors. He did so beside Devin Booker with the Phoenix Suns and playing with James Harden and Kyrie Irving in Brooklyn.
Westbrook, Harden and Curry are all former scoring champs, while Curry is a two-time Kia MVP and the league’s all-time leader in 3-pointers made. Yet Durant didn’t conflict much, if at all, with those players. That’s mainly because his trademark efficiency (he’s a career 50.3% shooter) never took shots away from them.
Durant won the scoring championship four times in five seasons (2009-12 & 2013-14). He averaged 30 points only twice (30.1 ppg in 2009-10 and 32 ppg in 2013-14) but never averaged below 20 points in a season. And since that rookie season in 2007-08, Durant has never averaged less than 25 ppg in a season.
If a sudden drop-off in production is approaching, as with all players who reach a certain age, it’s not happening tomorrow. Durant is at 25.8 ppg in his first season with the Rockets and still commands respect from opposing defenses. In his second game with Houston, he dropped 37 points. He’s had multiple 30-point games every month with a season high of 40.
“If you know him or know about him, you expect that,” said Rockets coach Ime Udoka. “The last few years, he’s had the same efficiency, same percentages, so his game is going to translate well with age. You don’t trade for somebody if you think they’re going to have a drop-off or fall off … he’s doing exactly what we thought coming in.”
That said, Durant also has advantages that a majority of players on the all-time list didn’t enjoy: he’s the product of an era that tilts in favor of offensive players and provides them much more freedom, room to create and ease of scoring.
This doesn’t shortchange Durant’s accomplishments or his eventual place in the top five. He stands almost 7 feet and is highly skilled. He would likely excel in any era. It just helps provide context and explain why he has more forces working for him than against him, which can’t be said for great scorers of the past — even Jordan.
Playing in today’s scoring culture can only help Durant climb even higher on the list in the near future, before he retires, assuming good health.
6 factors to consider about Durant’s rise
• At the start of this week, 35 players were averaging 20 ppg or more. Twenty-five years ago, 25 players finished the season averaging at least 20 ppg. The pace is quicker and the floor is spaced to give offensive players more options and leverage. They’re more likely to see one-on-one coverage or get open looks, which helps them shoot more efficiently.
• The emphasis on 3-point shooting today gives scorers an additional weapon that either wasn’t embraced or available to scorers of the past, such as Pete Maravich, Jerry West and John Havlicek, among others. Larry Bird, one of the greatest distance shooters ever, wasn’t a volume 3-point shooter. (Bird made just 649 3-pointers in his career and by comparison, mid-range specialist DeMar DeRozan has 658 career 3-pointers.) Jordan (581) never made it part of his game, either, despite the famous “shrug” performance in the NBA Finals against Portland. The 3-pointer will allow Durant to overtake Jordan despite attempting over 2,000 fewer shots.
• The post-up big man has virtually disappeared in the NBA. Denver Nuggets star Nikola Jokić and San Antonio Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama are currently the only centers among the top 30 scorers this season. The NBA is now a perimeter game and the days of dumping the ball inside are all but gone. With fewer centers taking shots and serving as a primary option, wing players such as Durant get most of the looks.
• Rule changes and interpretation in the last few decades favored the offense. The league felt the game grew stale and uninteresting in the 1990s when sub-100 game scores were not uncommon. The plan was to make it more exciting and breezy and take advantage of the abundance of athleticism and outside shooting.
Suddenly, hand-checking was outlawed. The game became less physical. The art of dribbling evolved to the extent that the crossover and hesitation dribble — neither are possible without placing the hand on the side or even slightly underneath the ball — became widely accepted and practiced. The league initially cracked down on Allen Iverson, who popularized the crossover and hesitation, then ignored any infractions, both perceived and real, and the floodgates opened. With those deceptive dribbles, defenders are frozen in place, allowing the offensive player to blow by, and scoring increases, which was the goal all along.
• Players can get from Point A to B in a variety of ways in this era. That signals another offensive revolution — the Eurostep, gather step, hop step and step-back (to the 3-point line) all helped offensive players create space, gain a significant advantage over defenders and led to increased scoring.
• Careers last longer today than yesterday. Modern medicine, therapy, travel, training, personal habits and the realization that generational wealth and franchise values are at stake, players and teams do whatever it takes to keep superstars productive well into their late 30s.
Regarding NBA records and all-time lists, context and eras matter in that debate. Perhaps 20 years from now, when someone else — say, Cooper Flagg — prepares to leapfrog Durant, that player will enjoy benefits that Durant lacked. Or vice-versa — future rule changes could rescue the defense. In that case, the task of climbing all-time scoring lists will be more impressive than now.
Speaking of tasks, the challenge for Durant is climbing higher on the all-time scoring list. After passing Jordan, he will be looking up at LeBron James (who’s still active and adding to his record total), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Karl Malone and Kobe Bryant.
He can pass Bryant (33,643) next season. Catching Malone (36,928) might require two seasons at Durant’s current pace.
Then, it gets tricky.
Abdul-Jabbar is at 38,387 points. Durant would need four more seasons of playing 65 or so games each campaign and would need to average roughly 25 ppg when he’s in his 40s to pass Abdul-Jabbar.
When asked about this possibility by reporter Leigh Ellis two months ago, Durant said: “I don’t know if I could get 25 a game for 270 more games, brother. I never wanna say never, but those dudes set the bar so high. I think about the top three or four, you gotta play at least 20 years in the league to even reach that, and still be at that level for 15 or 20 years.
“I’m looking at it more so like that. Play long, play 20-plus years in the league, and see where you end up. If I end up there, it’s cool; if not, I just wanna be around and be in the league.”
Which means: Durant’s desire isn’t the issue, never was. He likes to hoop. He’ll probably play until the legs fall off … which might happen before the production falls off too steeply.
* * *
Shaun Powell has covered the NBA since 1985. You can e-mail him at [email protected]m, find his archive here and follow him on X.
