This year’s men’s NCAA Tournament might not feel like it has one clear favorite, with Duke, Arizona and Michigan all enjoying dominant regular seasons.
But a preferred choice emerged in The Athletic’s annual staff survey. Arizona was the national championship pick for 14 of the 28 writers and editors we surveyed this week.
Naturally, an aggregated bracket of 28 staff picks tends to ultimately lead toward favorites advancing. But our staff bracket this year did feature a few surprises: Two 11-seeds advancing over their sixth-seeded opponents, a 10th-seeded mid-major knocking out a blue blood, and one No. 2 seed — Houston — preventing us from mocking all 1-seeds to the Final Four.
Here’s a look at which teams got the most votes to advance, along with round-by-round voting tallies and some of our staff’s boldest predictions for this year’s madness.
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet 16
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Four
Elite
Eight
Sweet 16
Second
Round
First
Round
We’ll go round-by-round and highlight some of our biggest takeaways.
First-round picks
Seed
Team
Votes
Opponent
Votes
1
28
16 Siena
0
1
28
16 Prairie View A&M/Lehigh
0
1
28
16 Howard/UMBC
0
1
28
16 Long Island
0
2
28
15 Idaho
0
2
28
15 Tennessee State
0
2
28
15 Furman
0
3
28
14 North Dakota State
0
3
28
14 Wright State
0
5
28
12 Northern Iowa
0
2
27
15 Queens
1
3
27
14 Penn
1
3
27
14 Kennesaw State
1
4
27
13 Hawaii
1
4
25
13 Cal Baptist
3
9
24
8 Villanova
4
5
23
12 McNeese
5
10
23
7 Kentucky
5
11
23
6 Louisville
5
4
22
13 Troy
6
9
21
8 Clemson
7
4
20
13 Hofstra
8
5
20
12 High Point
8
8
20
9 TCU
8
6
19
11 Texas/NC State
9
6
19
11 Miami (OH)/SMU
9
7
19
10 UCF
9
9
19
8 Georgia
9
7
18
10 Texas A&M
10
7
17
10 Missouri
11
11
17
6 North Carolina
11
5
16
12 Akron
12
• Three double-digit seeds got enough votes to advance to the second round: No. 10 Santa Clara (against No. 7 Kentucky), No. 11 South Florida (against No. 6 Louisville), and No. 11 VCU (against No. 6 North Carolina). Interestingly, our staff picked overwhelmingly in favor of Santa Clara and USF against the two schools from Kentucky.
• While there were no 12-over-5s, 13-over-4s or even larger upsets that got a majority vote, there were a number of individual longshot picks. Akron — facing a short-handed Texas Tech team without star JT Toppin — was the most popular No. 12 seed pick. Hofstra, facing Alabama, was the most popular 13-over-4. Two 14-seeds — Penn (playing Illinois) and Kennesaw State (playing Gonzaga) — and one 15-seed (Queens against Purdue) received one vote from the most daring in our group.
Jon Greenberg on Akron over Texas Tech: “Like everyone else, I’m skittish on big upsets in the NIL era, but why not Akron? John Groce is money in March and the No. 12 Zips have size, experience and talent.”
Ian O’Connor on Penn over Illinois: “Penn, a 14 seed, coming off an incredible victory over Yale, has a player (TJ Power) good enough to score 44 points in a sudden-death game and a team confident enough to upset Illinois.”
• We’ll learn Wednesday whether Miami (Ohio) can advance out of the First Four and enter the main bracket at 32-1. The RedHawks got seven of 28 votes to advance past Tennessee (SMU, Miami’s opponent Wednesday, got two).
Who will advance to the Sweet 16?
• A total of 36 teams received at least one vote to make the Sweet 16, including 14th-seeded Penn and 13th-seeded Troy. Only Arizona, Michigan, Florida and Houston were unanimous choices to get to the second weekend. (One voter chose Ohio State to beat Duke.)
• Are the No. 5 seeds better than the No. 4s this year? They might be in better March form, at least. Fifth-seeded St. John’s took 27 of 28 votes from its pod, leaving just one for No. 4 Kansas. Our staff likes Vanderbilt to advance out of a pod with Nebraska, and Texas Tech to get out of one featuring Alabama, too.
• The most vulnerable No. 3 seed? Gonzaga, which might have to face BYU in the second round. No. 2 seed? UConn, which is coming off a loss to St. John’s in the Big East championship and could face a red-hot UCLA squad in the second round.
Who got an Elite Eight vote?
• Now we’re whittling it down. Nineteen teams got votes to each the Elite Eight. Only Michigan was unanimous. And no seed worse than a No. 7 got a vote.
• The most difficult decision came in the West, where we actually had a tie between No. 2 Purdue and No. 3 Gonzaga. We broke the tie by looking at how many Final Four votes each got — Gonzaga got the only one that didn’t go to No. 1 Arizona, so the Zags move on.
• Once again, the quality of the No. 4 seeds comes into question. Kansas, Nebraska and Alabama didn’t receive any votes to reach the Elite Eight, and Arkansas received only one. Meanwhile, St. John’s and Vanderbilt both received multiple votes.
Our Final Four picks
Name
Champ
East
South
West
Midwest
Matt Baker
Duke
Florida
Arizona
Michigan
Matt Brown
St. John’s
Houston
Arizona
Michigan
Scott Dochterman
Duke
Houston
Arizona
Iowa State
Seth Emerson
Duke
Houston
Arizona
Michigan
Bruce Feldman
Duke
Houston
Arizona
Michigan
Ira Gorawara
Duke
Houston
Arizona
Michigan
Austin Green
Duke
Vanderbilt
Arizona
Iowa State
Jon Greenberg
Duke
Houston
Arizona
Michigan
John Hollinger
Michigan State
Houston
Arizona
Michigan
Mike Hume
Michigan State
Florida
Arizona
Michigan
Christopher Kamrani
Duke
Houston
Arizona
Michigan
Mitch Light
Duke
Illinois
Arizona
Virginia
Brendan Marks
Duke
Florida
Arizona
Michigan
CJ Moore
Duke
Illinois
Arizona
Michigan
Ian O’Connor
Duke
Florida
Arizona
Michigan
Grace Raynor
Duke
Florida
Arizona
Iowa State
Joe Rexrode
St. John’s
Houston
Arizona
Michigan
Jim Root
St. John’s
Houston
Arizona
Michigan
Ralph D. Russo
St. John’s
Houston
Arizona
Michigan
Lindsay Schnell
Connecticut
Houston
Arizona
Michigan
Dan Shanoff
Duke
Houston
Arizona
Michigan
Mitch Sherman
Duke
Houston
Arizona
Michigan
Daniel Shirley
Duke
Houston
Gonzaga
Virginia
Eric Single
Michigan State
Florida
Arizona
Virginia
Jillian Thaw
Michigan State
Illinois
Arizona
Michigan
David Ubben
Michigan State
Florida
Arizona
Iowa State
Chris Vannini
Duke
Houston
Arizona
Michigan
Justin Williams
Connecticut
Florida
Arizona
Michigan
• A total of 13 teams got at least one vote to make the Final Four: Seven of the top eight seeds (all but Purdue), all four No. 3 seeds, and two No. 5 seeds in St. John’s and Vanderbilt.
• While Arizona is the favorite, this could be as good a year as any for the Big Ten to snap a 26-year title drought. Michigan, Michigan State and Illinois all received championship votes.
Why Arizona? “Arizona is the most complete in the tournament. The Big 12 has the best concentration of high-level teams and Arizona led the league in offense and was second in field-goal defense. No team is playing better or checks as many boxes as Arizona.” — Scott Dochterman
Why Duke? “I think last year’s Final Four loss was another necessary lesson in Jon Scheyer’s progression. That lesson helps his talented Blue Devils get over the hump this time.” — Matt Baker
Why Michigan? “An huge, dominating juggernaut all three times I saw them in person.” — John Hollinger
Bold predictions
We also asked our staff to give us some bold takes for the tournament.
“The 2025 tournament featured only one true buzzer-beater, as in 0.0 on the clock: Derik Queen’s bank shot against Colorado State to send Maryland to the Sweet 16. This year, we get four such game-winners by the end of the first weekend.” — Eric Single
“St. John’s plays for the whole thing and falls to Arizona. History says that offensive efficiency in the 40s makes the Red Storm a non-starter, but let’s not forget 12 years ago when UConn won it all. Shabazz Napier on a heater made it possible. This run will be brought to you by the forceful interior play of Zuby Ejiofor.” — Joe Rexrode
“Darius Acuff Jr. enters the discussion as the No. 1 overall pick in the next NBA Draft.” — Justin Williams
“The Big 12 is going to flex in this year’s tournament. I think four teams can reach the Elite Eight with three in the Final Four, with an All-Big 12 championship game between Arizona (winner) and either Houston or Iowa State.” — Scott Dochterman
“Miami (Ohio) wins two games: the play-in against SMU and Round 1 over Tennessee.” — Grace Raynor
“There are even fewer first/second round upsets than last year (11), which becomes a talking point in Congress as lawmakers keep pursuing legislation.” — Matt Baker
“Cinderella-free Sweet 16: Zero teams seeded higher than 5 make the Sweet 16.” — Dan Shanoff
“Iowa State runs the table against the top three teams in KenPom — Michigan, Arizona and Duke — to win a national title.” — Austin Green
“Houston will lose in the title game for the second straight year.” — Daniel Shirley
“A mid-major accuses a power-conference team of tampering during the tournament.” — Chris Vannini
“Dan Hurley is ejected in the second half of the fourth meeting of the season between UConn and St John’s and complains that the regional final was officiated like a Big East game.” — Ralph D. Russo
