Predicting Purdue Men’s Basketball’s Run Through the West Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament

16 teams. That’s how many teams sit in each region. One team will emerge from each region to represent their side of the bracket in the Final Four. Just two years ago Purdue was one of those teams and with the Final Four in Indianapolis this year, just about 60 miles away from the Purdue campus, the narratives have come hard and fast about Purdue making it there, playing in front of a home crowd, and winning their first Men’s Basketball National Championship (NCAA Edition). It’s been an up and down season with Purdue starting as the pre-season number one before stumbling to end the regular season and going 6-7 in their final 13 games. It seemed like a four seed was Purdue’s destiny. Then, enter Chicago. Enter the Big Ten Tournament. And enter, #41 Braden Smith. Purdue went on a tear in the Big Ten Tournament taking down Northwestern, Nebraska, UCLA, and Michigan for the tournament championship. Suddenly, it was Selection Sunday and Purdue found themselves on the two line. Let’s take a look at not just the FanDuel odds that Purdue makes it to the Final Four, I’m a bit like Han Solo, never tell me the odds, but what I think could happen as Purdue makes their way through the West region and all the way to Indianapolis.

Round 1 – #2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens

Just right off the bat, we know that Purdue will face Queens in the first round. That’s the only certainty at this point. You have to take March one game at a time, not me though because I’m just a blogger I’m not actually on the team. Purdue is a heavy favorite in this one with FanDuel favoring Purdue by 25.5 points as of this writing. There are only three games predicted to be as lopsided as this one and those are Duke vs. Siena, Michigan vs. last night’s winner Howard, and Arizona vs. Long Island University. That’s it, that’s the list. A lot of Purdue folks are of course spooked by the FDU loss from three years ago and I get it. Even now as I’ve done my best to research Queens all I can see are things that would give Purdue trouble instead of the advantages that Purdue has going into this game. Purdue has the size and skill advantage on both ends but this is especially true on defense where Queens has allowed 90+ points to every high major team they faced this season. I’m not sure if I’d take the 25.5 points, but I do believe Purdue will have an easy time in the second half here and walk away to the round of 32.

Round 2 – #2 Purdue vs. #7 Miami/#10 Missouri

Here we run into a possible home court advantage should both Purdue and Missouri advance. Playing in St. Louis would allow plenty of Missouri fans to make the (short) trek to the stadium. However, I think that underestimates how well Purdue fans have traveled of late for NCAA Tournament games. Plus, given the performance in the Big Ten Tournament I think a lot of Purdue fans have had their faith in this team restored. I think that will play a big part in the fans really showing up in St. Louis. Plus, this Purdue team, inexplicably, seems to play better on the road than they do at home. It’s something I’ve not seen in any Purdue team in recent memory. Regardless of who Purdue plays here I think the execution of the Purdue offense will be hard to stop. Let’s not forget that the Michigan team Purdue took down in the Big Ten Tournament was the #1 defense in the country according to KenPom. If Purdue can put up 80 points on them they should be able to put the ball in the hoop against anyone they face. Plus, if the Purdue defense from Chicago shows up I trust them to slow down whoever they face. I think Purdue moves onto the second weekend and San Jose.

Round 3 – #2 Purdue vs. ???

Here’s obviously where we move into pure speculation. There are four teams that Purdue could face should they get this far. The NCAA Tournament is nothing if not unpredictable. There’s a reason that no one has ever had a perfect bracket. The possible opponents are BYU, Texas (another winner from last night and the home of former Purdue player Camden Heide), Gonzaga, and Kennesaw State. BYU probably has the best single player in the bunch, but do they have the best team? My gut tells me that if Purdue makes it to the Sweet 16 they would face either Gonzaga or BYU. Interestingly, BYU is favored by just 2.5 in their game against Texas while Gonzaga is favored by 21.5 over Kennesaw State. Purdue and Gonzaga obviously have a history in the NCAA Tournament, and really any tournament, and it seems to me they are the most likely team that Purdue would face in the Sweet 16. I’ll take Purdue to continue their dominance over Gonzaga.

Round 4 – #2 Purdue vs. ???

The list of teams Purdue could face in the Elite 8 is well…8. It’s the other half of the West bracket. Arizona, Long Island University, Villanova, Utah State, Wisconsin, High Point, Arkansa, and Hawai’i. Obviously the odds on favorite to reach this Elite Eight game is Arizona. They are the #1 seed and according to FanDuel they have the second best odds to reach the Championship game at +190. Purdue currently has the 6th best odds to reach the National Championship game at +1000 but anyone who has ever placed a bet can tell you, the difference between +190 and +1000 is a chasm.

Arizona also has the best odds to reach the Final Four, thus winning the West region, at -125. Purdue again finds themselves in the 6th best spot with +400 odds. Still, pretty good odds when you truly take a step back and look at where Purdue was just two weeks ago.

So, the odds tell us that this Elite Eight game will be Arizona vs. Purdue. But I’ll be honest, I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that Arizona is going to be upset. By who you might ask (and I’ll scrub this from the internet should my upset be upset in the first round) well none other than the Wisconsin Badgers. I think this Wisconsin team is built for March with very good guards in John Blackwell and Nick Boyd. They took down Illinois and were this close to taking down Michigan in Chicago. Those two guards can keep Wisconsin in any game. So yes, I think it will actually be Purdue vs. Wisconsin in the Elite Eight with shades of the 2000 Elite Eight matchup between these schools with Wisconsin walking away victorious and heading to the Final Four. That Purdue team had a starting five of Mike Robinson, Jaraan Cornell, Carson Cunningham, Grey McQuay, and Brian Cardinal. That was a heartbreaking loss and it just feels karmacly right that Purdue would exorcise another demon on the way to another Final Four in Indianapolis.

So there ya go, Purdue over Wisconsin in the Elite Eight to head to the Final Four in Indianapolis. Purdue comes away the King of the West with just two more games in front of them before they have a chance to be crowned the National Champion.

So, what do you think? Am I off base or am I right on target? Let me know in the comments.