Date 3/19 || Time 2:50 || Venue Bon Secours Wellness Arena || Video CBS
Update – Patrick Ngongba has not been ruled out for Thursday, but is “highly unlikely” to play
Duke opens up NCAA tournament play on Thursday with the Siena Saints. As you probably know by now, former Syracuse star Gerry McNamara is the coach there now. After a slow start last season, where the Saints finished with a modest 14-18, Siena finished this year 3rd in the MAAC with a 23-11 record and won its conference tournament.
Siena runs a relatively tight rotation, and the starters play fairly heavy minutes. Their best player, Gavin Doty, pulls 36.7 mpg, Justice Shoats gets 35.4, and Brendan Coyle plays 30.3. Francis Folefac is in for 27.7, while Tasman Goodrick averages 23.3
Antonio Chandler, Christian Jones, Riley Mulvey, and Isaiah Henderson flesh out the rotation.
As noted, Doty, a 6-5 sophomore, is the best of the Saints, and his backcourt running mate, Shoats, a 5-11 senior, are the heart of the team.
Coyle is a 6-7 senior, Folefac is a 6-7/245 lb. freshman, and Goodrick is a 6-10/230 lb. junior out of Sydney, Australia.
You might think that as a former Jim Boeheim player and assistant at Syracuse that McNamara would run the ol’ 2-3. You would be wrong.
Siena goes mostly man-to-man, and they’re pretty good defensively, too: Siena only allows 67.7 ppg, and in the last 10 games, they’ve held teams to 47.9% at the rim. McNamara at times pairs Folefac and Mulvey, a 7-0/240 lb. senior, and that gives them some serious beef inside.
The Saints also don’t foul a lot.
Siena’s offense is one of the slowest in the nation and, unlike a lot of teams that follow analytics closely, depends on a lot of mid-range offense rather than focusing on three-point shots and layups.
Siena only gets about 22% of its points from threes, which is 357th nationally, and only hits about 30% of their attempts from behind the line.
Doty averages 17.9 ppg, 7 rpg, and 2.2 assists. Shoats racks up 13.2 ppg, 4.4 apg and 1.4 steals. Coyle is an excellent rebounder (10.3 per game), and can get hot from behind the line. As you might expect, Folefac operates primarily inside.
Since Duke typically takes opponents deep into the shot clock, Siena’s slow pace may work against them. And then you have to consider where Duke will opt to primarily use Dame Sarr. He’s emerged as a great defender, and Coach Jon Scheyer typically sics him on the opposing point guard. At 6-7, Sarr would tower over Shoats, but he could also try to stifle Doty. It’s an interesting choice.
Since Duke tends to switch beautifully, that may help to limit Siena’s mid-range game. And while Sarr provides immense pressure on the perimeter, Maliq Brown is a shut-down defender all over the court. Those two pose serious issues for McNamara.
Defensively, Siena has to deal with Cameron Boozer and Isaiah Evans as Duke’s primary offensive threats. Boozer has had a sensational season and is solid in nearly every area, though he is still sometimes turnover-prone.
For his part, Evans is always a dangerous threat from outside, but he also has shown that he can drive, and has developed a solid all-around game. He’s advanced tremendously from his freshman year.
Then there’s Sarr, who has also become a dangerous perimeter sniper. He is making strides as a slasher, but still struggles to finish on breaks.
Brown and Cayden Boozer are both competent offensively and in Charlotte, Boozer made huge advances.
Nik Khamenia and Darren Harris have been asked to step up and both have, and particularly Khamenia. His three-point shooting and overall toughness have been huge assets, and we’re starting to see more of his all-around game. He’s going to become a really good player.
Duke is favored by a wide margin here, not least of all because the Blue Devils have a huge advantage in athleticism, but also, the Blue Devils have faced a much tougher schedule. This is not a surprise of course, but still, Duke has played 10 of the current Top 25, and one more (Tennessee) in an exhibition game.
Still, Siena’s schedule was notably anemic, with only one Quad 1 game, a 21-point loss to 18-14 Indiana.
The best-case scenario for Duke is that this is a blowout, an easy win, and Scheyer gets to rest his starters as much as possible.
Look, there’s always a chance that a massive upset could shock the world. It happened to Purdue a few years ago when a small but very quick #16 Fairleigh Dickinson pulled off a stunning win against the bigger, lumbering Boilermakers. It’s highly unlikely, but not impossible.
There’s still no word on Pat Ngongba’s status, but he’s not expected to play this weekend, so getting as much rest as possible is vital. The last thing Duke needs to do is to win Thursday, then go into Saturday’s match against either Ohio State or TCU with tired legs.
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