Mizzou, meet Miami in St. Louis.
No. 10-seed Missouri basketball is going back to the NCAA Tournament and facing a short trip to its first-round site, taking on 7-seed Miami on Friday night at Enterprise Center in St. Louis.
Missouri (20-12) is riding a three-game losing streak into the tournament, but Dennis Gates’ team avoided a play-in game and is now setting up for what should look a lot like a home game for the Tigers.
Miami (25-8) has staged one of the biggest year-over-year turnarounds in the country this season under first-year head coach Jai Lucas, who is a former Duke assistant. The Hurricanes went from a seven-win team last year to third in the ACC and back in the Big Dance.
Mizzou hasn’t made the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament since 2009. If the Tigers are going to end that streak, they’ll need to open with a win against an extremely talented Miami team.
Here’s what you need to know about the ’Canes before Friday’s NCAA Tournament game in St. Louis:
What are Miami’s strengths?
There’s going to be a lot of downhill drivin’ on Friday.
The Hurricanes have been one of the best teams in the nation at scoring in the paint. In Division-I, only Florida and Gonzaga, according to CBB Analytics, score more points in the painted area per game than the Hurricanes. That is a lot.
Miami is among the nation’s top-20 offensive rebounding teams, pulling in second-chance opportunities on 37% of its missed shots.
Only .3% separates Miami and Mizzou in effective field goal percentage, which are both top-35 teams in the category.
Getting downhill and scoring points from close range are a shared strength for Friday’s competitors.
Mizzou does it well. The Tigers are going to have a big challenge Miami doesn’t do it better.
Where can Missouri basketball create advantage over Miami?
When you adjust Miami’s effective field goal percentage for opponents, the Hurricanes are ranked No. 167 nationally.
And the slightly odd part: The ’Canes do that while still forcing turnovers and getting defensive rebounds, meaning opponents aren’t getting a lot of what coaches like to call “extra possessions.”
So, where does that low ranking come from?
Mizzou fans might not love the sound of this, but Miami allows one of the worst opponent 3-point percentages at 35.4% in the country.
The ‘Canes have been generally good at defending the inside, and they don’t send opponents to the free throw line especially often. But, a lot like Missouri, it has not been particularly efficient at defending the perimeter.
The Tigers have to keep up with Miami inside the arc. It’s not a competitive game if the Tigers get blown away there.
But the separation may very well come from a player like Jayden Stone or Jacob Crews, if Mizzou can get them connecting from behind the arc.
Player to watch: Malik Reneau
The Malik Reneau vs. Mark Mitchell matchup is going to be fascinating. It may very well be the defining matchup of this first-round game.
Reneau, a Miami native who, like Mitchell, stands 6-foot-9, is an Indiana transfer who has found his footing in Coral Gables this season. He averages a team-high 18.8 points per game, and he grabs 6.6 rebounds per outing. He shoots 35.3% from 3-point range and gets to the line more often than any of his teammates with about six attempts from the stripe per outing
Just for comparison, Mitchell is averaging a team-high 18.3 points, 5.2 rebounds and is shooting 35.6% from 3-point range and takes a team-best eight free throws per game.
The similarities are remarkable.
Mitchell is coming off back-to-back career days that didn’t end up translating to wins. He’s had Mizzou on his back recently on the offensive end.
He’s got important defensive duties ahead of him Friday, too. Renaud is going to be his responsibility for a lot of the night, and probably vice versa.
Lace ‘em up and let ‘em at it. This should be a really fun battle.
Score prediction: Miami 76, Missouri 72
Can Missouri win this matchup? We watched the Tigers take down the reigning national champions, win at Rupp Arena, beat one one of the most physical teams we’ve seen all season in Tennessee, take down BuckyBall on the road and knock off SEC Tournament runner-up Vanderbilt.
Yes, Missouri certainly can win this game.
But we are spooked by the last three games that Mizzou put together. The trio of losses were often tough to watch, and they threatened to derail a wonderful month of February from the Tigers.
That didn’t happen. Missouri is getting an opportunity to rebound in March Madness, and to do so in its home state in front of a crowd that likely will have a hefty gold-and-black lean.
If Mizzou gets the job done, we will not be surprised, but it’s not what we’re picking. The recent flaws are too much to ignore, and Miami is a very strong basketball team.
