Heavyweights
BETTING ODDS: Pericic (-270); Sutherland
(+220)
Sutherland (10-4; 0-1 UFC) is still in search of his first Octagon
win. “The Vanilla Gorilla” got heel-hooked quickly by Valter
Walker in his debut at UFC 321 last fall. The good news for
Sutherland is that literally nobody else in the UFC heavyweight
division is going to try that on him; the bad news for us is that
because nobody else is going to try that on him, and the whole
thing was just 84 seconds, the Walker fight is completely useless
for scouting purposes. However, the 32-year-old is pretty much a
known quantity at this point. On the plus side, he is a hulking
heavyweight who punches in combination and delivers good but not
overwhelming power—his high ratio of knockout wins is due more to
diligent boxing and accumulated punishment than single, Derrick
Lewis-esque killshots. His limitations are a matter of record
as well; both of his losses in
Professional Fighters League saw Sutherland get taken down
easily, repeatedly, by good-not-great wrestlers who gave up 30
pounds or more in the cage. Worse, Sutherland struggled to do much
more from the bottom than survive, and his get-up game, such as it
is, tired him out quickly.
“The Balkan Bear” (5-1; 1-0 UFC) is less than a year younger than
Sutherland but has fewer than half as many fights, and this is
arguably a step up from any of his former foes. The Australian of
Croatian descent fighting out of New Zealand is yet another example
of the towering Balkan kickboxer exemplified by fellow UFC
heavyweight Ante Delija,
to whom Pericic bears more than a little resemblance, in appearance
as well as fighting style. On the feet, Pericic uses his size and
reach well, preferring to keep his opponents on the outside with
low kicks and long one-twos, but he has good knees and short
punches for shorter fighters who manage to close the distance.
Where Pericic diverges from a fighter like Delija is in the
wrestling and grappling: Pericic has thus far shown little
inclination to initiate a ground battle, and his own takedown
defense is suspect. In his lone career loss to date, Pericic was
frankly manhandled by a smaller, older fighter in Randall
Rayment, who dragged Pericic down any way he wanted to,
including conventional takedowns, trips and standing back-takes,
before tapping him out in the second round. While that
vulnerability is unlikely to have much impact on this particular
matchup, it bears watching in the future.
This is a tough style matchup for Sutherland, but most of them will
be at this level; despite the nearly 3-to-1 odds in Pericic’s
favor, at least this is likely to play out as a standup battle by
mutual assent. Sutherland’s issue is that, as a boxer who needs to
land a certain volume of strikes to win, his success will always be
dependent on his takedown defense and cardio, and both have shown
to be lacking at times. In this case, expect a competitive—and
probably fun—heavyweight punch-out, but Pericic’s greater diversity
of weapons and his advantages in reach and footwork, should be
enough to earn him the decision nod.
Jump To »
Jones vs. Sola
Wood vs. Keita
Sutherland vs. Pericic
Kondratavicius vs. Trocoli
Pinto vs. Franco
Rock vs. Al-Selwady
Dyer vs. Oliveira
Mullins vs. Carolina
