The first round of the NCAA men’s tournament is in the books. As always, there were plenty of tight contests, interesting storylines, and of course, upsets.
Heading into the second round, here are five bold predictions as competing teams look to punch a ticket to the Sweet 16.
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At least one No. 9 seed will upset a No. 1 seed to advance to the Sweet 16
In one of the oddities of the round of 64, all four No. 9 seeds advanced over their No. 8 seed opponents. Now, at least one will take down a No. 1 seed in the round of 32 to advance to the Sweet 16.
In a year where three out of the four one-seeds looked like a cut above the rest of the field during the regular season (Duke, Arizona, Michigan), I am predicting that at least one will see its dream of cutting down the nets come to an end before the second weekend.
The easy target is the top overall seed in the field, Duke. The Blue Devils entered the Big Dance without the services of lead guard Caleb Foster and star big man Patrick Ngongba II. The Blue Devils are certainly not the same team defensively without either player. Foster is arguably the team’s best perimeter defender, while Ngongba is a key frontcourt piece as a defender and rim-runner.
The Blue Devils showed some of their warts defensively on Thursday when they were down double digits to 16-seed Siena. Duke played a strong defensive second half and came back to win, but now a very well-coached TCU team awaits with a formidable frontcourt led by star David Punch.
Arizona and Michigan have no walks in the park, either. Arizona faces a Utah State team that just ran by Villanova in the second half on Friday, while Michigan battles a Saint Louis squad that eviscerated Georgia in the first round in one of the most impressive showings of the round of 64 thus far.
Could one of the “big three” lose?
It’s on the table.
As for the fourth No. 1 seed, expect Florida to be O.K. against Iowa. It’s a bad matchup for the Hawkeyes, who struggle to score consistently outside of star guard Bennett Stirtz.
Two mid-majors will make the Sweet 16
In the NIL era, much has been made about teams at the top of the sport getting so much better while the mid-majors struggle to keep their own players due to lack of funding relative to top-end power-conference teams.
But there is still enough mid-major talent in this tournament to make a Sweet 16, and I think multiple teams get through.
Two teams from the Atlantic 10 certainly have a shot, with No. 11 VCU taking on No. 3 Illinois in a very interesting matchup of talented backcourts, while No. 9 Saint Louis takes on No. 1 Michigan in a game that certainly could get interesting if the Billikens start filling it up from beyond the arc and attacking the glass the same way they did against Georgia.
The other mid-major in play is No. 12 High Point, who will battle No. 4 Arkansas on Saturday. I’d imagine that the Panthers will struggle to solve the Darius Acuff Jr. puzzle with his athleticism, but High Point just overcame a matchup against a Wisconsin backcourt that’s among the best in college basketball thanks to 15 three-point makes.
Could two of the three make the Sweet 16? It won’t be easy—but these are bold predictions, not chalk predictions.
At least one of the two remaining 11-seeds will make the second weekend
We just discussed VCU and its prospects in the second round, where the Rams will look to run an up-and-down Illinois team into the ground. VCU’s conditioning level was key to the late comeback against North Carolina, where the Rams had the Tar Heels gassed, especially in overtime.
The other 11-seed is Texas, which won the play-in against NC State before handling BYU in the round of 64 thanks to strong perimeter defense that forced a good BYU team to shoot just 4 of 22 from three. The Longhorns have their hands full with No. 3 Gonzaga next, but this Longhorns team is very well-coached under Sean Miller and has the athletes to play with a Bulldogs team that is good, but not as elite as other Mark Few–coached teams.
No. 5 seed St. John’s will blow by Kansas and prove its grossly underseeded
St. John’s entered the NCAA tournament winners of 19 of its last 20 games. The lone defeat, a 32-point debacle at UConn, was avenged in the Big East tournament title when the Red Storm took down the Huskies by 20 for their second win in three meetings this season.
So why exactly was St. John’s put on the five-line entering the NCAA tournament? A lack of quality nonconference wins is what’s easiest to point to, as the program’s best win outside of Big East play was likely a 15-point win over Baylor the week of Thanksgiving.
But the Johnnies are flat-out good. The defense is suffocating, and the offense can be difficult to contain with the presence of Bryce Hopkins and Zuby Ejiofor in the lineup, even if the unit struggles to make threes at times.
The Red Storm defense, after shutting down Northern Iowa, will have similar success against Kansas. Jayhawks lead guard Darryn Peterson will be contained, and the Jayhawks will have trouble functioning consistently on offense. After an emphatic St. John’s win, the committee will wish they would have seeded Rick Pitino & Co. higher heading into the second weekend.
No. 3 Michigan State will expose No. 6 Louisville’s offensive flaws and punch ticket to Sweet 16
Louisville has struggled at times offensively this season when star freshman guard Mikel Brown Jr. was out of the lineup.
With a lingering back injury that sidelined him down the stretch of the regular season and ACC tournament, the Cardinals were hoping to get Brown back for the round of 64 win over South Florida. Louisville shot 54% against South Florida, including 52% from three, and beat the Bulls by only four with Brown sidelined.
On Saturday against No. 3 Michigan State, the absence of Brown will be more pronounced. Don’t count on the Cardinals to shoot it that well again, especially against a Spartans club ranked No. 40 nationally in scoring defense. I don’t expect Louisville to play quite as well offensively once again without Brown, and the Spartans will move on to another Sweet 16 under Tom Izzo.
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