Every new season promises new surprises. Teams and players will drastically under- or overperform projections. Part of the fun of being a fan is planting your flag ahead of time and predicting the next breakout or disappointment (less fun).
For example, I think Masyn Winn is going to overachieve every projection system this year and put up a 5 WAR season. I could cite any number of statistics, narratives, or hunches to support my opinion, but the point is that I have a clear picture of how I think his season will go. If it deviates from that picture, I will be surprised or disappointed.
On the flip side, there are players that I simply don’t know what to make of. Nolan Gorman could hit 40 home runs this year or be DFA’d by the All-Star break, and I wouldn’t be shocked by either outcome. This list is subjective, but here are the five major leaguers and five minor leaguers that can’t surprise me in 2026.
Nolan Gorman
It may be cliché, but this is truly a make-or-break year for Gorman and the Cardinals. He only has three years of team control left, so the idea that he can incrementally improve and work his way back into the long-term picture is not realistic. No, he will need a full-blown breakout in his age-26 season. I don’t see the Cardinals sticking with Gorman into the second half if real changes to his contact and ability to translate his power into games are not evident in the early going. By the All-Star break, Gorman could be a DFA candidate or a core piece of the offense.
Andre Pallante
Pallante is such an interesting pitcher because he is elite at managing damage on contact but struggles to generate enough swing-and-miss to be viable as a starter (or reliever). As currently constructed, he has to walk a very fine line to be effective, but if he can add or refine an off-speed pitch to generate swing-and-miss, there could still be upside left. Pallante, with a little more control and a reliable off-speed pitch, is a mid-rotation starter. The Pallante we saw last year is not going to be pitching important innings on a contending club.
Dustin May
May’s injury history and inconsistencies have been well documented. He has also had a healthy and impressive spring training, with his fastball velocity up over two miles per hour year over year. If he combines the velocity and stuff from his early Dodger days with his health from last year, the Cardinals will have a massive asset on their hands. Every pitcher carries the risk of injury, but May is one of the few who has legitimate ace upside.
Nathan Church
At this time last year, expectations for Church were low to nonexistent. After a breakout 2025, he still might just be a AAAA player or fourth outfielder. Or… he might be Harrison Bader in the outfield and Brendan Donovan at the plate. He is particularly tough to project because he changed his profile to include more power last season in the minor leagues, but then completely faceplanted offensively during his major league time.
Thomas Saggese
Saggese has stayed under the radar a bit over the last couple of seasons. He was a top-100 prospect after his excellent 2023 season, but he did not have the pedigree of a Jordan Walker or Nolan Gorman. Still, upside remains, as Saggese has shown himself to be a competent defender at the major league level and is still just 24 years old. The question is whether he can get to the power that he showed in the minor leagues. Saggese excels at hitting balls at the right angles but will need to find more consistency to have real offensive impact.
These are not necessarily all the highest-upside prospects in the system, but they could all be top-100 prospects in baseball, or not even ranked in the Cardinals system a year from now.
Yairo Padilla
Best Case Scenario: Padilla moves up to Low-A and starts showing power commensurate with his athletic 6’4” frame and impressive exit velocity numbers. With a good plate approach and athleticism to dream on, Padilla may still be the highest-upside player in the system.
Worst Case Scenario: Padilla has hit for essentially no in-game power in his first two professional seasons. If he fails to impact the baseball again this season, he will start to look more like Jeremy Rivas as a prospect than Fernando Tatis Jr.
Deniel Ortiz
Best Case Scenario: Ortiz continues to build on his impressive debut season. Ortiz is a prospect in the same vein as Joshua Baez in that he has excellent batted-ball data (launch angle and exit velocity), but there are questions around his contact ability. Ortiz still has extremely limited experience against high-level competition as a junior college draftee, so concerns about his contact rate against good velocity may be overblown. He improved throughout last season and could be primed for big numbers in the hitter-friendly environment at Springfield once he arrives.
Worst Case Scenario: If Ortiz’s contact issues persist and he cannot handle third base, he will quickly move from top-100 breakout candidate to an afterthought as a prospect.
Chen-Wei Lin
Best Case Scenario: Lin possesses a fastball that can touch 100 mph and intriguing enough secondaries that he might stick in the rotation if everything clicks. He never got into a rhythm in 2025 due to injuries and inconsistencies, but he finished with a flourish in his last two Double-A starts, striking out 15 in seven innings. Listed at 6’7”, Lin may need a little longer to develop, but entering his age-24 season, a delayed breakout is still very possible.
Worst Case Scenario: Another injury or walk-plagued year could lead to Lin falling into the non-prospect tier.
Braden Davis
Best Case Scenario: Davis gets his control ironed out and rides his spectacular changeup to becoming a top-100 prospect in baseball. Davis was second in the minor leagues in K% while throwing over 100 innings in his debut season, so the durability and swing-and-miss foundation you want to see in a starter are there.
Worst Case Scenario: If Davis’ command does not improve, or his stuff backs up, he will look more like a hopeful reliever than a potential strikeout-oriented mid-rotation starter.
Best Case Scenario: We just lived through the Rainiel Rodriguez breakout season in his first year stateside, so the precedent has been set for DSL players. Rodriguez was ahead of Dos Santos in comparable DSL metrics in wRC+ (185 to 158) and ISO (.338 to .258), but this is still impressive production from a middle infielder who was not known for power coming into the season. To make a real splash, Dos Santos will need to dominate the Florida Complex League and earn a promotion to full-season ball.
Worst Case Scenario: There is essentially no “floor” on a prospect who has yet to play in the U.S., but if the power does not come with him, Dos Santos will be just another player fighting to get out of the lower minors.
We spend all spring trying to project how a season will unfold, but some of the most important outcomes come from the players we can’t confidently project. So who do you have the least feel for right now?
