How strong could this El Niño grow?
Given that experts are confident we’re on the cusp of an El Niño, all attention now is on how strong the event will grow.
Many folks want to know if we’re on the brink of a so-called “Super El Niño” this summer. While that term isn’t used in any official capacity, it usually refers to a very strong event during which water temperatures are running at least 2°C warmer than normal, like we saw in 1997-98 and 2015-16.
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A couple of degrees above seasonal may not seem like much, but abnormally warm (or cold) water can have a significant impact on the atmosphere. It helps to think about how much the small temperature spike of a fever affects the human body.
Current observations and computer model guidance suggest that we may experience a strong or possibly even very strong El Niño later this year. The CPC’s forecast gives a one-in-three chance of a strong El Niño by this autumn. But there is a catch.
“El Niño and La Niña have a long history of defying expectations during spring, more so than any other season,” said Dr. Doug Gillham, a senior meteorologist for The Weather Network. This uncertainty is often called the spring predictability barrier.
Dr. Gillham noted that while there’s plenty of evidence that El Niño is on its way, “it is premature to have confidence in the eventual strength.”
