AccuWeather’s first hurricane season outlook says the number of storms may be unremarkable, but warm water temperatures can cause surprising dangers.
What are the chances we could have a super El Niño this year?
Forecasters expect El Niño to take over from La Niña by late summer of 2026, potentially reshaping hurricane season. But what does that really mean?
Early hurricane season forecasts have begun rolling out and will continue over the next several weeks, with the June 1 start to the season in the Atlantic just 68 days away.
AccuWeather, a private weather company, released its seasonal outlook March 25. Its forecast will soon be followed by the research team at Colorado State University, typically in early April, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration later in May, among many others.
With confidence increasing for a strong El Niño forming over the summer, the forecasts are expected to take into account the dampening effect that Pacific Ocean climate pattern can have on storms in the Atlantic basin. However, some of the nation’s most destructive hurricanes have plowed into the U.S. mainland during an El Niño. Think Hurricane Michael in 2018 or Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
For the average person living within reach of a hurricane, similar preparations are advised every year, no matter the seasonal outlook. Also, Hurricane Helene and others show the path of a hurricane and its effects might reach much farther inland and be far more devastating than many imagine.
Seasonal forecasts were “never designed to tell a family whether their home is going to be hit,” said Craig Fugate, a former FEMA administrator and former state emergency management director in Florida. “People hear ‘El Niño will suppress activity’ or ‘below-average season’ and translate that into ‘I’m probably safe.’ History says otherwise.
“Seasonal forecasts are about how busy the ocean might be. Disasters are about where one storm goes,” Fugate said. “El Niño may change the numbers, but it doesn’t change your risk. Prepare the same every year, because it only takes one.”
For example, the 1992 season had just seven named storms − but it included Andrew, one of the more destructive U.S. hurricanes on record.
What is AccuWeather’s hurricane forecast for 2026?
Warm ocean water and rapid intensification of storms close to the U.S. coast are two key concerns for this hurricane season, AccuWeather’s forecast warns. But the formation of an El Niño in the Pacific Ocean may hold tropical activity to near or below historical average numbers as the season progresses.
The outlook from the team at AccuWeather, a private weather company, released March 25, predicts a season that could be near or below the historical average. The forecast includes:
- 11 to 16 named storms
- 4 to 7 hurricanes
- 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater)
- 3 to 5 direct U.S. impacts
Northern and eastern portions of the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas face a higher-than-average risk of direct hits this season, AccuWeather says, while central and southern Texas could see a lower-than-average risk.
The 30-year historical average for named storms in the Atlantic is 14. AccuWeather predicts a 40% possibility of more than 14 named storms in 2026 and a 15% possibility of more than 16 storms.
Alex DaSilva, the company’s lead hurricane expert, emphasized the need to prepare. “It’s very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of the forecast,” DaSilva said.
Will El Niño affect the hurricane season?
When an El Niño forms along the equator in the Pacific, it tends to weaken trade winds over the Pacific. That increases a rising air motion that tends to drop shearing winds over the Atlantic that can disrupt the structure of tropical cyclones.
But it doesn’t eliminate hurricanes or prevent impacts, “particularly in the Gulf,” Fugate said. “The Gulf plays by different rules.”
“Once a system gets into the Gulf, local conditions matter far more than seasonal signals,” he said. And short timelines compress: “You can go from a tropical storm to a major hurricane near landfall faster than people can adjust.”
‘Exceptionally warm’ waters cause hurricane season worries
Warm water is an essential ingredient in hurricanes and can help fuel rapid intensification in the storms. Already, sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal in parts of the Atlantic basin, DaSilva said, and they’re forecast to “reach exceptionally warm levels again this summer.”
That can cause storms that spin up near the coast to pose bigger threats, with less time to react, he said, and could increase chances for preseason or early-season storm development.
The expanse of orange and yellows on sea surface temperature maps “is a very concerning trend as we get ready to head into hurricane season,” DaSilva said. If the pattern continues with water temperatures above historical averages, it’s “a recipe for rapid intensification.”
That’s what happened with Hurricane Michael. Its maximum sustained winds rapidly intensified from 115 mph to 160 mph in under 24 hours.
Looking back on the 2025 season
For the first time in a decade, the U.S. mainland did not experience a hurricane landfall in 2025, but the season did produce three powerful Category 5 hurricanes. The storms included Hurricane Melissa, a name recently retired because of its impacts across Jamaica and the Caribbean. At least 95 people died.
The season produced 13 named storms, five hurricanes and four major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or more.
2026 hurricane season storm names
Here’s a list of the names for any tropical storms or hurricanes that do form this summer, and how to pronounce them. Not every letter in the alphabet is used.
Wilfred – WILL-fred
Arthur – AR-thur
Bertha – BUR-thuh
Cristobal – krees-TOH-bahl
Dolly – DAH-lee
Edouard – eh-DWARD
Fay – fay
Gonzalo – gohn-SAH-loh
Hanna – HAN-uh
Isaias – ees-ah-EE-ahs
Josephine – JOH-seh-feen
Kyle – KY-ull
Leah – LEE-ah
Marco – MAR-koe
Nana – NA-na
Omar – OH-mar
Paulette – pawl-LET
Rene – re-NAY
Sally – SAL-ee
Teddy – TEHD-ee
Vicky – VIH-kee
Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about violent weather, climate change and other news. Reach her at [email protected] or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.
