Griffin Wong gives his best first goalscorer bet on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s World Cup play-off match between Poland and Albania.
For Poland and Albania, it all comes down to this. Whichever team can outlast the other through the end of 90 minutes on the pitch this afternoon will be just 90 minutes away from the World Cup, but it’ll be some of the most grueling, pressure-packed 90 minutes of football that either team has ever played. The winner of tonight’s 3:45 p.m. ET (8:45 p.m. local) tie in Warsaw will go on to face the winner of Ukraine and Sweden next Tuesday, and the winner of that game will join the Netherlands, Japan, and Tunisia in a very doable Group F.
Getting off to a strong start will be critical, as whichever team takes the lead will send the other on the back foot, forcing aggressive attacking play and mistake-free football. I expect both of these teams — each of which typically sets up in an attacking formation, in Białoczerwoni’s case a 3-4-3 and in Kuqezintjë’s a 4-2-3-1 — to play aggressively after kickoff, so while both teams have strong defenses, a goal should come eventually. But which player will score?
Poland is a -150 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-330 to make the play-off final), with a draw available at +265. Albania is +475 (+235 to make the play-off final).
The top seven players with the shortest odds of finding the back of the net first all wear the home team’s red and white. Robert Lewandowski (+245) is a clear favorite, with his teammates Karol Świderski (+550), Krzysztof Piatek (+550), Kamil Grosicki (+750), Jakub Kamiński (+950), and Filip Rózga (+950) following closely behind. In fact, there are shorter odds that the match will finish in a 0-0 draw (+700) than for any Kuqezintjë player to find the back of the net first: Jasir Asani, Armando Broja, and Myrto Uzuni are all at +1200.
Given how solid Albania’s defense is — like Białoczerwoni, it allowed just five goals from open play during the group stage, and Thomas Strakosha is a pretty solid goalkeeper with plenty of high-level experience — Broja is probably the best value option, even though his supporting cast in the attack isn’t great. It’s not like Poland’s defense is untouchable; while it had high tackle and interception rates, it still allowed just the 19th-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes and will be without first-choice goalkeeper Łukasz Skorupski. There’s a world in which Broja finds a way through, especially on a fast-break.
But this one isn’t worth overthinking. Lewandowski is one of the greatest strikers of his generation, having terrorized Bundesliga defenders for more than a decade, and even at the age of 36, he’s still been highly effective at Barcelona this season, smashing home 11 league goals in 12 starts and 12 substitute appearances. The 0.40 goals per shot on target he’s averaged this season is actually the eighth-highest mark of his career. He led the team with four goals during qualifying, starting six of eight matches.
Lewandowski is a virtual guarantee the main man up front tonight, and as long as he’s set up with a reasonable chance in front of net, he’s a good bet to put it away. Kuqezintjë allowed an above-average number of crosses during the group stage, and they aren’t equipped to stop it should one of those crosses find Lewandowski’s head.
The Pick: Robert Lewandowski (+245)
