Griffin Wong gives his best first goalscorer bet on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s World Cup Play-Off match between Slovakia and Kosovo.
While club football dominates headlines as the Champions League is down to the quarterfinals and each of Europe’s top five domestic leagues are closing in on a title chase, attention turns once again to international football, where the final six teams participating in this summer’s FIFA World Cup will be determined — two in the Intercontinental Playoffs and four more through UEFA Play-Off paths.
Arguably the match most of interest for Americans is the 3:45 p.m. ET (8:45 p.m. local) match between Slovakia and Kosovo in Bratislava, as the winner of that match will host the winner of Türkiye-Romania in the Path C final. The winner of next Tuesday’s match will then enter Group D with the United States, Paraguay, and Australia.
Given how talented each of these teams are and how important momentum is in football, it’s feasible that the United States will end up facing whichever team scores first between the Falcons and the Dardanians on June 25 at SoFi Stadium.
Slovakia is a +110 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-190 to make the play-off final), with a draw available at +220. Kosovo is +285 (+140 to make the play-off final).
With the Falcons a clear favorite in the match overall, it’s not a surprise that the three players with the shortest odds of being the first goal scorer all come from Slovakia, with Dávid Strelec (+550) the favorite and Samuel Mráz (+600) and Adrian Kaprálik (+600) tied for the next-shortest odds. After that comes the Dardanians’ main man, Vedat Muriqi (+650), with his teammate Fisnik Asllani (+800) trailing somewhat behind.
Muriqi is my favorite value option. The Falcons had a well-balanced attack during the group stage, as Strelec was among six players who scored exactly one goal, and no Slovak player found the back of the net multiple times. Strelec’s status as the betting favorite makes sense, given that he started in the No. 9 role in all six of the Falcons’ qualifying matches, but given his low on-target rate and his inconsistent status for Championship side Middlesbrough, it’s hard to trust him. It’s also hard to trust Mráz, who barely plays for Swiss side Servette, or Kaprálik, who plies his trade in the German second division.
Muriqi should be the best player on the pitch, especially with Slovakia’s captain, Milan Škriniar, sidelined. The 31-year-old has plenty of top-flight experience, including five seasons in La Liga, and he currently trails only Kylian Mbappé in La Liga goals for a Mallorca team that’s fighting relegation. By on-target percentage, shots on target per 90 minutes, and goals per shot on target, Muriqi has had among the finest seasons of his career, and it wouldn’t be a surprise for him to keep it up.
It won’t be the easiest task in the world, as Slovakia has a solid defense and only allowed seven goals from open play during the group stage, but given that the Falcons allowed an above-average number of shots on target per 90 minutes, they’re definitely vulnerable, especially without Škriniar. Martin Dúbravka has been in cold form for a Burnley team that looks certain to suffer the drop.
The Pick: Vedat Muriqi (+650)
