Did you catch another subtle sign of spring from the last few days? The NHL standings page added an “If Playoffs Started Today” link at the top of the page. And it doesn’t just go to a page that says “… it would be way too early, calm down.”
That’s because we’re almost there. There are just three weeks left in the NHL season, and while that’s plenty of time for teams to shift around the standings, it’s close enough to the playoffs that we can start thinking ahead to potential matchups. And as always, some are better than others.
Today, let’s have a look at some of those first-round matchups that are realistically in play, with a ranking of the 10 best. We’ll use the numbers from HockeyStats.com and limit our list to matchups with at least a 10 percent chance of happening (heading into last night’s games).
We’ll count them down, working our way to the best possible matchups — most of which, of course, will not happen because we’ll have jinxed it. We’ll get there, but let’s take this from the top …
No. 10: Utah Mammoth vs. Anaheim Ducks
The odds: 61.0 percent, one of the highest we’ll see on this list, so we might as well try to sell it.
The history: None, given this will be the Mammoth’s first postseason appearance, although the Ducks did face the Arizona Coyotes in one playoff series way back in 1997.
Why it could be great: Most of the usual stuff we look for in a great matchup isn’t here, but that’s OK because there’s something to be said for novelty. And it would be oddly fun to see the Ducks be the old established franchise staring down the punk kids with the weird name. Beyond that, these are two up-and-coming teams who’ve spent most of the year silencing doubters. And while the Ducks would probably be slight favorites thanks to home ice, it’s a winnable matchup for the Mammoth, which keeps the door open for our dream of seeing them hang a banner for winning a division they’re not in.
No. 9: Nashville Predators vs. Colorado Avalanche
The odds: 40.5 percent, by far the most likely of several possible matchups for the Avs.
The history: They’ve split two meetings, a Preds win in 2018 and an Avalanche sweep in 2022.
Why it could be great: Whether it’s Nashville, Utah, the Los Angeles Kings or someone else, the narrative for Colorado’s first round will be the same — the overwhelming favorite against the scrappy underdog nobody thinks has a real chance. Given that, the Predators are probably the best casting choice for the role of David going up against Goliath. They’re not even supposed to be a playoff team, and sure seemed to be selling at the deadline just a few weeks ago. But they’ve emerged as the favorite to grab the last spot in the West, and they didn’t even need Bono this time.
Could they beat the Avalanche? It wouldn’t make one bit of sense if they did. And given how this season is going, that means there’s a good chance it happens.
No. 8: Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins
The odds: 21.2 percent. By the way, there’s going to be a lot of the Sabres in this post. You’ve been warned.
The history: There’s a ton, as they’ve met eight times in the postseason, most of them in the Adams Division days. The most recent came in 2010, a series the Bruins won and maybe wish they hadn’t.
Why it could be great: This matchup would feature two of the season’s most surprising teams, so any attempt at predicting how it would go would seem pointless. It’s probably the most interesting matchup available for the Bruins now that their odds of drawing the Montreal Canadiens are close to zero.
You’d get the dynamic of a rookie head coach against a guy who’s been doing it forever, a goaltending matchup that would favor the underdog, and a ton of playoff debuts (probably including James Hagens). We could all do a lot worse.
And the winner moves on to the second round, meaning their playoff run would get to see a few May days.
No. 7: Detroit Red Wings vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
The odds: 11.4 percent, which is a lot more than the “zero” you might expect based on Tuesday night.
The history: They faced off in back-to-back years in surprisingly feisty series in 2015 and 2016, with the Lightning winning both. Those are the two most recent playoff series the Red Wings have played.
Why it could be great: It would be an interesting battle between a young-ish team trying to build something and an old one trying to squeeze as much as they can out of a diminishing contention window. But the real fun here would be the Steve Yzerman factor, as the Wings GM could claim partial credit for building both teams. He was hailed as a genius when he left Tampa and eventually came home to Detroit; that reputation has been tarnished by the lack of results so far. No better way to flip that narrative than beating your old team, right? Maybe, but Julien BriseBois might not agree.
(By the way, speaking of Tampa homecomings: Honorable mention honors go to the Lightning facing Martin St. Louis and the Habs in what would be a rematch of a recent Stanley Cup Final, something you don’t often get to say about divisional rivals.)
No. 6: Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres
The odds: 37.2 percent, with two paths to get there — either the Canadiens drop to a wild-card, or the Sabres drop to second in the division.
The history: They were rivals in the classic Adams Division days and have faced each other seven times in the postseason, although the most recent was back in 1998.
Why it could be great: Do you like exciting young teams? How about offense? Can I interest you in two crazy loud buildings? Cool, you’re in, because this would be fantastic.
Really, this one pretty much sells itself. I’m not sure the ceiling is quite as high as some other matchups, but the floor feels like a six-game classic at minimum.
No. 5: Ottawa Senators vs. Buffalo Sabres
The odds: 23.6 percent, nestled in between the Hurricanes and Lightning as the Senators’ second most likely matchup.
The history: Way more than you probably think, although you have to go back a ways. They faced each other twice in the pre-cap days, including the Senators’ very first playoff appearance back in 1997, which ended with a Game 7 overtime winner ripping through Ron Tugnutt’s glove. They split meetings in 2006 and 2007, including this all-time Team Chaos classic. Mix in some regular-season nastiness along the way, and this is one of those underrated rivalries that wouldn’t need a ton of heat to start simmering again.
Why it could be great: Our third and final Sabres pick isn’t the best possible matchup for Buffalo. That would be a battle of the bandwagons against the Blue Jackets, aka “Jarmo-geddon.” But that one’s hanging on by a thread, clocking in under 1 percent as a first-round meeting, and we promised we’d stay in the realm of the realistic.
Still, the Senators wouldn’t be a bad fallback. They’re a sneaky great team that would give the Sabres all they could handle. And if you think the Sabres’ bandwagon is full now, wait until Brady Tkachuk and friends are embracing the heel role.
No. 4: Montreal Canadiens vs. Carolina Hurricanes
The odds: 16.5 percent, which is higher than you’d think given it would require Ottawa or Boston passing Montreal on the standings and knocking them down to a wild-card.
The history: They faced each other twice, in 2002 and 2006, with Carolina winning both. But the real history here is more recent, with the whole offer sheet kerfuffle around Sebastian Aho and later Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Granted, that all happened under Marc Bergevin and Don Waddell, but some of the bad blood lingers, especially between the fan bases.
Why it could be great: Even putting aside the offer sheet stuff, this would be a fun matchup with serious upset potential. The Canadiens have played the Hurricanes twice this year and won both while scoring 12 times, which isn’t what you want to see if you’re a Carolina fan worried the goaltending could be a postseason weak link. (The two teams play again on Sunday.) Both teams have potent offenses and question marks in net, and the whole thing could even end up being a battle between Brandon Bussi and Jacob Fowler, two pure rookies who give off some serious Steve Penney vibes.
Also, if you combined Martin St. Louis’ thighs with Rod Brind’Amour’s upper body, you’d create the perfect human form. I’m not sure why this matters but I think it might.
No. 3: Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
The odds: 67.0 percent
The history: They’ve faced each other twice, in 2014 and 2017, with the Penguins winning both.
Why it could be great: First of all, because it involves Columbus. While the Sabres may be the greatest bandwagon team of all time, this year’s Blue Jackets aren’t all that far behind. They’ve only won one seven-game series in franchise history, so they’ve got the lovable underdog thing sewn up. But they’ve also been one of the best teams in the league since making a coaching change in January, so this could turn into a real run.
Standing in their way? Only the Penguins, the other half of what might be the most one-sided rivalry in the league. For Columbus fans, the Pens are the bullies who always show up to kick sand in their faces. But that animosity really only goes one way, with Pittsburgh fans focusing their ire on teams like the Capitals and Flyers. On this week’s podcast, Sean Gentille described it as the hockey version of that Don Draper meme, and he’s not wrong.
There’s one way to change that, and it’s with the Blue Jackets finally slaying the dragon. The storyline would write itself, especially if Columbus ends up hosting Game 1 for the first time ever. You’d have Dan Muse at 43 years old against Rick Bowness, who’s been coaching almost that long. Oh, and did we mention it could be Sidney Crosby’s last playoff run? Where’s Brandon Dubinsky when you need him. This series would absolutely rock.
No. 2: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Edmonton Oilers
The odds: 49.6 percent, which feels like it should be higher until you remember that both teams could still drop out of the playoffs entirely.
The history: Two meetings, with the Knights winning in 2023 and the Oilers getting payback last year.
Why it could be great: There would be a ton of star power, including 2015 draft cousins Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel crossing paths yet again. There’d be even more pressure, since a first-round exit would have to be viewed as utterly disastrous for both teams, almost certainly costing some people their jobs. And given the goaltending on both sides, it’s possible every game would finish 11-10.
Also, seeing Mitch Marner and Zach Hyman trade playoff goals would make Toronto Maple Leafs fans sad. OK, even sadder. What more could you want?
No. 1: Minnesota Wild vs. Dallas Stars
The odds: 98 percent, and it feels like it’s been that way since December.
The history: The Stars have beaten the Wild twice, in 2016 and 2023, both times in six games. But more importantly, Norm Green Sucks.
Why it could be great: Because while this is the obvious pick, it’s still the right one. These are arguably two of the three best teams in the league. And look, we all realize they shouldn’t be facing each other in round one. The playoff format is not ideal, and this is one of those years where it’s really going to yield some really unfortunate results.
That stinks. But also, it kind of rules, at least if you’re a neutral fan who just wants to watch an epic matchup in round one. Is it fair that one of these teams will be out right away? Not remotely. But it’s also true that winning a Cup means eventually going through the best of the best. That’s not an argument in favor of the current format, but it is a reason to give yourself permission to enjoy it anyway.
So sit back, forget about fairness and just enjoy two monsters going toe-to-toe. It would be just about the most star-studded opening round matchup we’ve ever seen. And there’d be no shortage of pressure — remember, the Wild haven’t won a playoff round since 2015 while the Stars fired their coach last year for losing in the conference final. The stakes couldn’t be higher, and it would be disappointing if we didn’t get seven games and multiple overtimes. You’re morally obligated to pretend to be outraged about the whole thing, but you’re still going to love every second of it.
