There was a moment where it appeared Mercedes’ near-certain run to a third successive pole could hit the buffers. Throughout the majority of Q2, it was Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri who had factored at the top of the timesheets, until Kimi Antonelli slipped a late 1m29.0s through the door as the middle stage of qualifying closed for business.
From there, Mercedes held enough of an advantage in Q3 to maintain its now-usual position on the front row, but it hadn’t been entirely plain sailing. Antonelli found the increase in wind to be a trickier customer compared to the final free practice session, while George Russell’s side of the garage had made a change to the rear end of the car between FP3 and qualifying.
This shifted Russell’s balance forward; the Briton got a car that was more ‘on the nose’, but the now-wayward rear was difficult to handle. Thus, he was vocal about the less-than-welcome sensation throughout the earlier stages of qualifying, suggesting that the lack of grip at the back of the car almost felt “aerodynamic” in scope.
Still, Antonelli managed to find a 1m28.778s in his first run of Q3, finding that his balance had settled through the progression of the session. Russell was a scant 0.002s faster through the opening sector, the Esses requiring a particular approach with the current day machinery; given that the drivers want to expend minimal energy through here, this is the opportunity for them to minimise the use of the MGU-K to save it for the rest of the lap.
Actually, the approach on the pedals through the Esses isn’t all that different until you get to the approach to the Dunlop Curve (Turn 7). Out of Turn 6, the throttle is more delicately pressed to the maximum, before another lift is needed at Turn 7 prior to the run to the Degners.
Russell and Antonelli were evenly matched through the Esses, but their approaches to the Degners were significantly different.
Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes
Photo by: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / AFP via Getty Images
Antonelli opted for the traditional brake-accelerate-brake for the pair of right handers ahead of the overpass, while Russell chose to roll through the first right-hander and then use all the braking for the second. Antonelli found over 0.15s in the second sector overall, including through the hairpin and the Spoon Curve, and then completed the remainder of his advantage in the final stage of the lap.
Russell felt he was compromised by the changes that he had to make to the front end to rebalance the car, most likely taking out a bit of front wing flap to remove some of the pointiness of his W17.
“It was really odd, to be honest,” the championship leader stated. “We made a set-up adjustment just going into qualifying and the car just did not feel the same as it has been the whole weekend. My first laps in Q1, I was down in P7, P8, and we had to make a massive adjustment during qualifying with the front wing to adapt.
“The team have already had a look. We don’t know whether something incorrect was done or what happened.
“We made a mechanical issue to the car on the rear end and it was just mainly through the Esses. I couldn’t attack any of the corners. The rear was trying to step out on me throughout. I’m sure we’ll try and see what happened. There’s not really anything we can do now, but [second is] a good place to start for tomorrow.”
Antonelli, meanwhile, found his pole time on the first effort and was unable to improve on the second. His mistake at the hairpin killed off any improvement on his follow-up, and put that down to continuing gusts and the overall drop in track temperature.
George Russell, Mercedes
Photo by: Andy Hone/ LAT Images via Getty Images
The resurfacing in the second half of the circuit, effectively the follow-up to the first-half resurfacing that had been implemented last year, delivered plenty of grip in standard conditions. But when the temperature drops in Japan, it really drops quite quickly – and it was not a surprise that the new layer of asphalt started to deliver a bit less grip later in the afternoon.
Piastri claimed third on the grid, and this time will hope that he can assume it for the start of the race. The Australian outqualified both Ferraris, as the SF-26s seemed to run out of pace at the end of the session once more; Charles Leclerc had two lurid slides on his final lap and was unable to break into the top three.
Like the Mercedes duo, Piastri was unable to improve on his final effort. “I think I just tried too hard, tried to push a bit too much and the rear end said no a few times,” was his frank assessment of his second Q3 run.
Many drivers came to the conclusion that it was quicker to push less through Suzuka qualifying, a notion that rather demonstrates the qualifying fixes that are sorely needed with the current 2026 cars. While the per-lap energy allowance was reduced to 8MJ to reduce the amount of super clipping seen over the lap, the drivers felt that the driving challenge across the Suzuka lap was somewhat neutered.
Yet, we remain hopeful that those in control can implement something to ensure qualifying gets its mojo back. It’s fine if Sunday’s race is exciting, and it cannot surely be any worse than last year’s procession, but dare we dream to have our cake AND eat it?
Oscar Piastri, McLaren, George Russell, Mercedes, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes
Photo by: Sam Bloxham / LAT Images via Getty Images
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