What are the chances we could have a super El Niño this year?
Forecasters expect El Niño to take over from La Niña by late summer of 2026, potentially reshaping hurricane season. But what does that really mean?
- The AccuWeather hurricane forecast for 2026 has arrived.
- AccuWeather is forecasting less hurricane activity than it did in 2025.
- El Niño could play a big role in how this hurricane season plays out.
The AccuWeather hurricane forecast for 2026 has arrived.
After a relatively slow hurricane season in 2025, AccuWeather is scaling back its hurricane predictions for 2026, forecasting a near-to-below-historical-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, but added “the risk of U.S. impacts remains elevated.”
“It’s very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of the forecast,” AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said in a written statement. “Even if it’s expected to be a slightly below average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States.”
Here’s what to expect.
What is AccuWeather predicting for hurricane season in 2026?
AccuWeather is forecasting the following for 2026:
- Forecast: 11–16 named storms
- Hurricanes: 4–7
- Major hurricanes (Category 3+): 2–4
- Direct U.S. impacts: 3–5
What elements will affect this hurricane season?
El Niño is one of the primary factors that could lessen the number of storms this season, according to AccuWeather.
NOAA stated in an update last week that the chance of El Niño developing has risen to 62% for this June, July and August.
El Niño is a weather pattern when the winds that blow east to west in the Pacific Ocean weaken, causing warmer water to pool across the eastern Pacific’s equatorial region, impacting weather throughout the U.S.
Typically, the stronger the El Niño, the more shear that occurs in the Atlantic Ocean, according to Weather.com.
“Hurricanes hate shear in the atmosphere, so El Niño occurring during the summer and lasting into the fall can lead to weaker and a lower frequency of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin,” the website says.
AccuWeather added in a release that “there is a 15% possibility of a Super El Niño developing in the second half of the hurricane season,” which would create even less hurricane activity.
When is hurricane season?
It runs from June 1 until Nov. 30 annually.
What was the last hurricane to make landfall in Massachusetts?
The last hurricane to make landfall in Massachusetts was Hurricane Bob in 1991.
“AccuWeather considers a direct landfall, a storm passing within 60 miles of the coast, tropical-storm-force winds on land, flooding from a tropical system, or more than 2 feet of storm surge as a direct U.S. impact,” according to a release from AccuWeather.
Expert warns against being complacent in hurricane season
DaSilva stressed that just because the hurricane forecast has been scaled back this year, that doesn’t mean people up and down the East Coast shouldn’t be prepared.
“Water temperatures across much of the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic are forecast to reach exceptionally warm levels again this summer,” DaSilva said in a written statement. “That heat extends hundreds of feet below the surface, providing additional fuel for storms. As a result, we are very concerned about the risk of rapid intensification this hurricane season.”
