Our NBA player prop projections are set for tonight’s showdown between the New York Knicks and Houston Rockets, with the model pinpointing several standout opportunities.
By analyzing the data and comparing it to current market lines, we’ve uncovered the bets with the highest value.
For those building their cards, here are the model’s top NBA picks for Tuesday, March 31.
Knicks
Rockets
Brunson u24.5 points
-112
Durant u25.5 points
-120
Bridges o1.5 threes
-125
Sengun u8.5 rebounds
+105
Hart o6.5 rebounds
-130
Thompson o4.5 assists
-120
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Knicks computer picks
Jalen Brunson Under 24.5 points (-112)
Projection: 24.6 points
Over their last 10 road games, opposing starting point guards have averaged just 12.8 points per game against the Houston Rockets — the second-lowest mark in the NBA — making this a difficult offensive matchup, particularly for Jalen Brunson.
Additionally, the New York Knicks have played at the slowest pace in the league over their last five games. They’re likely to see even fewer possessions against a Houston team that ranks as the second-slowest offense in terms of pace this season.
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Mikal Bridges Over 1.5 threes (-125)
Projection: 1.7 3-pointers
Mikal Bridges has eclipsed 1.5 made threes in five of his last 10 games, and this matchup sets up well for him to build on that trend against the Rockets.
While Houston plays at a slower pace, their defensive scheme often prioritizes protecting the paint and limiting high-percentage looks inside. That naturally shifts opportunities to the perimeter, where Bridges thrives as a catch-and-shoot weapon.
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Josh Hart Over 6.5 rebounds (-130)
Projection: 7.4 rebounds
Josh Hart has gone Over 6.5 rebounds in six of his last 10 games, and the Knicks’ strong presence on the glass should continue to boost his rebounding outlook.
New York ranks fifth in the NBA with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game this season, creating extra opportunities for Hart to capitalize on the boards.
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Rockets computer picks
Kevin Durant Under 25.5 points (-120)
Projection: 24.2 points
From a scoring standpoint, the Rockets have struggled at home, averaging just 109.9 points per game over their last 25 contests — the second-lowest mark in the NBA.
They also operate at the second-slowest pace in the league this season, a combination that could limit possessions and make it tougher for Kevin Durant to clear his points prop tonight.
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Alperen Şengün Under 8.5 rebounds (+105)
Projection: 8.4 rebounds
The Knicks have operated at the slowest pace in the league over their last five games.
This should limit possessions for the Rockets and cut into rebounding chances for Alperen Şengün, especially after he’s gone Under in five of his last 10 games at an 8.5 rebound line.
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Amen Thompson Over 4.5 assists (-120)
Projection: 5.2 assists
Amen Thompson has gone Over 4.5 assists in four of his last 10 games, and tonight’s matchup against the Knicks sets up favorably for him to continue that trend.
Thompson thrives when he can push the pace, and with the Knicks playing at the slowest tempo in the league over their last five contests, defensive rotations will be critical — opening passing lanes for a quick, athletic playmaker like Thompson.
His ability to penetrate and draw attention often forces collapses that create open opportunities for teammates, giving Thompson plenty of chances to rack up assists.
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How to watch Knicks vs Rockets tonight
Location
Toyota Center, Houston, TX
Date
Tuesday, March 31, 2026
Tip-off
8:00 p.m. ET
TV
Peacock
Not intended for use in MA.
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