The Montreal Canadiens’ core has come under a fair bit of scrutiny over the years — not because they weren’t good, but because there were concerns about whether they would be good enough to win the Stanley Cup.
That’s a significantly higher bar to clear, which leads to questions about Nick Suzuki’s caliber as a franchise center, Cole Caufield’s dimensionality as a franchise winger and Lane Hutson’s sturdiness as a franchise defenseman. There were also questions about whether Juraj Slafkovský could cement himself in that group, whether they had a strong enough second layer beyond it and whether they had the goalie to tie it all together. Across the board, there were a lot of ifs and maybes going into this season.
Consider many of those questions answered emphatically in the right direction.
While I’m not sure the Canadiens are a Cup contender as we speak, the team is quickly progressing before our very eyes and that starts with a core that now looks genuinely elite.
In Suzuki, Caufield and Hutson, the Canadiens have three legitimate award candidates. Suzuki feels like a shoo-in for the Selke, Caufield is two goals behind Nathan MacKinnon for the Rocket and Hutson is right in the thick of the Norris discussion. All three have elevated the strengths of their games to new levels, where Suzuki’s defensive game, Caufield’s goal-scoring and Hutson’s exceptional dynamism have all entered the league’s upper echelon. But beyond that, all three have rounded out other areas to become even more imposing.
It’s not just that Suzuki’s Defensive Rating is pacing at plus-6.9, it’s that he’s on pace to score over 100 points and add a plus-15.3 Offensive Rating pace on top of that. For the year, he ranks ninth in Net Rating and has become one of the league’s most complete players. Caufield has been along for that ride on the top line, where he’s delivered so much more than just putting pucks in the net. He’s driving play, handling tough minutes and showing a more complete game which has him 12th in Net Rating. Then there’s Hutson, who has grown significantly in his off-puck play while becoming a point-per-game defenseman, leading to a top-five Net Rating at the moment.
Put that all together and the Canadiens have three players in the top 15, something only the Colorado Avalanche and Edmonton Oilers can match. Make that top 20 and the Tampa Bay Lightning join. Top 30 and so do the Minnesota Wild.
The performance of Montreal’s core has been right there with the absolute best in the league and that looks real. All three of Suzuki, Caufield and Hutson now pass the Cup Checklist test for their roles, something that wasn’t a certainty at the start of the season. Their combined projected Net Rating, which would take each player’s resume into account and regress to the mean, is plus-46. Among playoff-bound Big Threes, that ranks fifth behind the same teams just mentioned: Edmonton (plus-71), Colorado (plus-62), Minnesota (plus-52), and Tampa Bay (plus-50).
That bodes extremely well for Montreal’s Cup aspirations. The next step is building out the right support behind them, and the Canadiens are progressing well on that front, too. Slafkovsky is on the right track and on pace for a plus-10 Net Rating himself, Ivan Demidov is delivering a fantastic rookie season (plus-4.5) and Noah Dobson was a terrific addition (plus-8.5).
The cherry on top, though, is Jakub Dobeš, who has taken the starting reins and hasn’t looked back. For the year, he’s 12th in goals saved above expected with 13, with all of that coming after the Olympic break, where he’s been the league’s third-best goalie.
That run emulates what we’re seeing from the team’s high-end players, where all three of Suzuki, Caufield and Hutson have an average Game Score north of two since the break. Suzuki has 27 points in 17 games, Caufield has 15 goals in 16 games, Slafkovský has 21 points in 17 games and Hutson has been an absolute force at five-on-five.
Look at the big picture and Montreal’s most important players are delivering, reaching the level you’d expect from core players on a contender. Look closer at what’s been happening down the stretch and you’ll see exactly why.
There’s still work to be done around the edges, but the Canadiens, led by one of the league’s best cores, are on the cusp of something special.
16 Stats
1. Zacha’s consistent ability to elevate above expectations
In a previous edition of 16 Stats I mentioned Boston’s consistent ability to deliver a higher goal differential than expected. Pavel Zacha is a key catalyst of that. This season, Zacha has a 56 percent goal rate, 10.6 percentage points higher than his xG rate of 46 percent, an unusually exorbitant mark that has become Zacha’s normal. In three of his four seasons with Boston, Zacha has had a GF% at least 10 percentage points higher than expected. Some players have done that once or even twice, but no one else has done it three times.
2. Tavares since Matthews’ injury
Toronto’s former captain has stepped up a lot in Auston Matthews’ absence, especially after disappearing during the middle portion of the season. In nine games, John Tavares is one of a select few Leafs with an average xG rate (a big deal for a team at 41.5 percent) and has outscored opponents 8-5. He also leads the team with five goals and 10 points.
For the season, Tavares has scored at a 31-goal, 70-point pace while being one of the team’s top play drivers. For the Leafs to get out of this mess next season, they need Tavares to maintain as much of that production as they can. A plus-7.9 Net Rating still puts Tavares firmly in top-six territory, and he may have even more to give with a shift to the wing.
3. Revisiting Hagel on the top power play
I’ve mentioned often over the past two years how flummoxing it is that Brandon Hagel doesn’t have a regular role on Tampa Bay’s top power play. Here are the latest numbers now that he’s starting to earn more runway with the top unit.
Tampa Bay power play with Nikita Kucherov and Hagel
GF/60: 11.1
Tampa Bay power play with Kucherov and without Hagel
GF/60: 8.9
4. Florida’s tank
Even when the object is losing, the Panthers find a way to come out ahead.
That feels evident by the way they’ve managed injuries down the stretch, with the likelihood that much of their core will be shut down for the rest of the season. Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Brad Marchand, Anton Lundell, Evan Rodrigues, Niko Mikkola and Uvis Balinskis all not playing does a lot for Florida’s loss probability.
Just how big is the difference? Florida’s roster on Tuesday against the Ottawa Senators had a Net Rating of minus-57.2, one of the five worst marks in the league. With a fully healthy roster, that shoots up to plus-37.8, a top-five mark. (They still won 6-3.)
We’ll never know whether any of those players would’ve been ‘playoff healthy,’ but either way, it’s the best course of action for an elite team in an off-year with a top-10 pick hanging in the balance. The Panthers currently have an 89 percent chance of hanging on to it.
5. New roles for Dahlin and Power
Since the Olympic break, all eyes have been on Rasmus Dahlin, who has snuck into the Norris conversation with some otherworldly play. He has 19 points in 18 games and a 60 percent xG rate to go with 74 percent of actual goals. Those are big changes at five-on-five, specifically in terms of chance generation, where the Sabres have gone from 2.81 xGF/60 to 3.64 with Dahlin on the ice.
A lot of that is on Dahlin, one of the game’s best defensemen, but there’s been a shift in usage underneath the hood that’s aided that: shifting shutdown responsibilities to Owen Power. Since the break, Power has faced the toughest assignments for the Sabres and not far off some of the meatiest minutes in the league. That’s shifted Dahlin’s focus toward a more offensive slant (similar to how Roman Josi, Victor Hedman and Quinn Hughes have been used in the past) and the results certainly speak for themselves.
I’m not sure whether Power is up for the challenge yet (47 percent xG), but it’s worth letting him grow into it if this is what the Sabres are getting out of Dahlin as a result.
6. Karlsson is still at his best
Two Erik Karlsson facts from an extremely impressive season:
First, he’s on pace for a plus-2.2 Defensive Rating, which would be a career best. Rarely has Karlsson been pushed into matchup duty, but that’s been exactly the case this season on a pair with Parker Wotherspoon. He’s thrived, earning 59 percent of actual goals and 52 percent of expected goals. Relative to teammates, it’s the first time in his career he’s been on the ice for fewer expected goals against and goals against. Doing that in a difficult context is impressive.
Second, he hasn’t really had to sacrifice production to do so. Over his past 10 games, that’s been put in hyperdrive at five-on-five. In that time, Karlsson has scored 12 points at five-on-five, good for 4.05 points per 60, a top-15 mark in the league — and not just among defensemen. Even wilder: It’s the first time Karlsson has scored over four points per 60 over any 10-game stretch over his entire career.
7. Mantha’s rising market value
The Pittsburgh Penguins took a strong gamble on Anthony Mantha in free agency last season with a one-year, $2.5 million “show me” contract. Well, he’s sure shown everyone with a career year, scoring 30 goals and 58 points in 75 games. But the biggest thing he proved is that he can stay healthy.
Last year, our contract model would’ve pegged his value at $4.7 million on a one-year deal, expecting a plus-1.2 Net Rating. Essentially, it expected a decent middle-six winger when healthy with the caveat that availability was a big enough issue to warrant a discount. Mantha’s current market value for next season: $7.5 million with a projected Net Rating of plus-6.3. Talk about a return on investment.
That’s not to say Mantha will command that much; his injury track record is still spotty. But he’s proven himself as a legitimate top six winger and the going rate for that is a lot pricier than the $2.5 million he’s currently earning.
8. Drysdale emerging as a legitimate top-four guy
One of the major criticisms of Jamie Drysdale in his first few seasons was his weak defensive play. Whether he was thrown to the wolves in tough minutes with the Anaheim Ducks or sheltered with the Philadelphia Flyers, Drysdale struggled to limit chances and goals against relative to his context. In 70 games last year, Drysdale had a minus-4.8 Defensive Rating and, for his career, was at minus-8.2 per 82 games. That would be one of the lowest marks in the league.
While some young defenders show more defensive aptitude early, there are many who need time to develop and we’re starting to see the fruits of that labor with Drysdale. He did well in sheltered minutes through the first half of the season and was promoted to the top four in late January. He’s taken off ever since.
Among regulars, Drysdale leads the Flyers’ defense with a 57 percent xG rate, allowing just 2.07 xGA/60, an elite mark that has carried over on the scoreboard. His Defensive Rating this season: plus-1.1 in 71 games. This feels like a genuine breakthrough for the 23-year-old and that’s a big deal for Philadelphia’s future.
9. Hischier’s defensive game has returned
The post-break New Jersey Devils have been a very different team. Jack Hughes has been a big part of that, looking even better than his vintage self (apologies for questioning that two weeks ago) with 27 points in 17 games. Perhaps just as important, though, is that Nico Hischier has looked closer to himself, too.
Hischier is scoring at a point-per-game pace and the underlying process looks a lot stronger with a 58 percent xG rate aided by allowing just 2.31 xGA/60. That’s nearly 0.5 fewer expected goals against per 60 compared to where he was before the break.
10. Cole Hutson’s debut
The good: Cole Hutson has five points in seven games with Washington. They may all be on the power play, but that’s not a bad thing for a team whose power play has been struggling. Hutson has shown some similar puck-moving flash to his brother Lane and looks like a future game-changer.
The bad: The production may be there, but there’s still a lot of room to grow at five-on-five. Defensively, he’s been solid enough, but the Capitals are generating just 2.03 xGF/60 with Hutson on the ice, close to a team low since he’s arrived. Given his raw talents, finding the right risk/reward balance is the next step in unlocking his strengths.
11. Carlson thriving in Anaheim
I loved the John Carlson fit in Anaheim and he’s showcasing exactly why. He’s averaging over 25 minutes, has nine points in eight games and is dominating at five-on-five with 58 percent of expected goals. On the power play is where he’s shone most with the Ducks landing in the top 10 since the trade with 9.2 goals per 60, up from a 26th-ranked 6.2 before his arrival. All of that is good for a team-leading average Game Score of 1.48.
12. The Kings under DJ Smith
The Kings fired Jim Hiller on March 1 and those expecting a new coach bump have been met with the same mixed bag. The Kings are 5-5-4 under DJ Smith with a slightly worse xG rate — and that’s with Artemi Panarin playing every game, a luxury Hiller didn’t have. The Kings still have a strong shot to make the playoffs, thanks in part to a weak schedule, but it’s time to get their act together. This roster shouldn’t be this bad.
13. Pettersson sinking to further lows at five-on-five
It’s hard to evaluate anyone on the sinking ship in Vancouver, but it’s also hard to ignore how much further Elias Pettersson’s production is dwindling at five-on-five. Since the trade deadline, he has just two points in 12 games and hasn’t scored a five-on-five goal since Jan. 13. From that point forward, he’s earned just 1.16 points per 60.
14. Josi getting crushed defensively
The Nashville Predators are miraculously in the playoff hunt, but are notably getting buried in Roman Josi’s minutes with just 35 percent of expected goals in March. And they’ve received similar results on the scoreboard, too. The big issue is Josi has been stuck in his own end a lot, allowing 3.83 xGA/60. That’s the second-worst mark in the league ahead of only Chicago’s Alex Vlasic.
15. Does Broberg have more offense to show?
The Blues hit a home run when they took a gamble on Philip Broberg with an offer sheet; he’s turned into a legitimate No. 1 defenseman at 24 years old thanks to his defensive acumen. The big question for him is whether he has an offensive gear to go along with it.
That’s the main thing currently separating Broberg from many of the franchise defensemen who have won Stanley Cups — they do it all. The Gustav Forsling trajectory works too if the defensive game is that good, but the lack of offense is generally an exception to the rule.
The Blues have seemingly been looking into that by promoting Broberg to run the top power play after the trade deadline. The personal results so far are great: Broberg has eight points in 12 games at all strengths and has been a factor on every power-play goal scored with 7.7 points per 60. But in terms of helping the team, it’s still a work in progress. During that time, the Blues rank 25th in GF/60 and dead last in xGF/60.
16. Colorado power play since the deadline
No shock here, Colorado’s power play is on fire since adding Nazem Kadri. Since the deadline, the Avalanche are third in the league, scoring 11.7 goals per 60 with the man advantage. The top unit itself is up to 14.5 goals per 60. That’s not quite at the same level as Edmonton’s top unit this year (15.9 goals per 60), but it’s in the ballpark. For the best five-on-five team in the league, that’s a game-changer.
Data via Hockey Stats, Hockey Stat Cards, Evolving Hockey and NHL
