Updated:
Apr 3, 2026 , 04:40 PM ET
• 4 min read
Ponnaiya’s prediction: Oklahoma’s red-hot offense will torch a weak Baylor D in the College Basketball Crown semis on Saturday.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Oklahoma Sooners guard Xzayvier Brown brings the ball up court.
The Oklahoma Sooners face the Baylor Bears in the College Basketball Crown semifinal on Saturday afternoon.
The Sooners ended the regular season with momentum, and my Oklahoma vs. Baylor predictions expect that to continue in this tournament.
Here are my best college basketball picks for this April 4 clash, with tip-off at 1:30 p.m. ET from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Oklahoma vs Baylor prediction
Who will win Oklahoma vs Baylor?
Oklahoma: Both teams have highly efficient attacks, but the Baylor Bears are worse on defense, and the Oklahoma Sooners came into this tourney playing their best ball of the year.
Oklahoma vs Baylor best bet: Oklahoma -1 (-110)
The Sooners picked up steam down the stretch, going 9-3 SU and ATS in their last 12 games with wins against NCAA Tournament teams Vanderbilt, Georgia, Texas, and Texas A&M.
Meanwhile, the Bears weren’t even on the bubble and are 4-7 in their last 11.
The Sooners are subpar on defense, but they’re still nowhere near as bad as Baylor, which is 334th in the country in opponent eFG% (56.7%) since the start of February.
The Bears are also weak on the interior, while Oklahoma has quality bigs in Tae Davis, Derrion Reid, and Mohamed Wague.
COVERS INTEL: Over the last two months, Oklahoma is seventh in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency per Bart Torvik while Baylor ranks 16th.
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Oklahoma vs Baylor same-game parlay
Both teams have potent attacks that have performed at an elite level since the start of February. However, they’ve both also been awful on defense.
Over their last 12 games, the Sooners are averaging 83.6 ppg while shooting 40% from deep. They’ll torch a Baylor squad that struggles to defend the arc.
Likewise, Oklahoma won’t have any answers for the Bears duo of Cameron Carr (19.0 ppg) and Tounde Yessoufou (17.9 ppg).
With KenPom projecting 161 points and Bart Torvik projecting 165, the Over 157.5 makes sense.
Oklahoma vs Baylor SGP
Oklahoma vs Baylor odds
- Spread: Oklahoma -1 | Baylor +1
- Moneyline: Oklahoma -115 | Baylor -105
- Over/Under: Over 157.5 | Under 157.5
Oklahoma vs Baylor betting trend to know
The Sooners have gone Over their team total in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 45% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Oklahoma vs. Baylor.
How to watch Oklahoma vs Baylor
Location
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Date
Saturday, April 4, 2026
Tip-off
1:30 p.m. ET
TV
FOX
Oklahoma vs Baylor key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it’s little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics. He’s also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted “The Chez and Ro Show” with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.
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