Welcome to our final edition of Power Rankings this season. With the playoffs less than two weeks away, let’s dive into the Canadian teams to see who may be a postseason threat and what went wrong with the teams that find themselves on the outside looking in.
Our highest-ranked Canadian team, coming in at sixth on our list, is the Edmonton Oilers. Our model weighs process and results, and while the Oilers rank 16th in the NHL in points percentage, there is good reason to believe they can make some noise in the playoffs.
Edmonton ranks 14th in goal differential but sits fifth in expected goal differential. The Oilers are still an offensive juggernaut, ranking first in expected goals and sixth in actual goals scored per game. No team spends more time with the puck in the offensive zone or creates more high-danger scoring chances.
Edmonton is tied with Vegas for top spot in the Pacific Division but owns the tiebreaker. The Oilers have a 46 per cent chance of winning the division, the Ducks sit at 33 per cent, while the Golden Knights have a 20 per cent chance according to Sportlogiq’s model.
The Montreal Canadiens, who had their eight-game winning streak snapped Sunday night, are 10th on our list. The Habs still have a shot of winning the Atlantic Division – two points back of the Tampa Bay Lightning, who have a game in hand. The two teams will face each other in Montreal Thursday night.
Cole Caufield is sitting on 49 goals and will have a chance to hit the 50-goal mark Tuesday at home against the Panthers. There is an 80 per cent chance the Canadiens will meet the Sabres in the first round and the way the Habs are playing lately, there’s no reason to believe they can’t make some noise in the postseason.
One spot behind the Canadiens, at 11th on our list, are the Ottawa Senators. The Sens, coming off an impressive win against the Carolina Hurricanes, are clinging to the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. Ottawa has a 76 per cent chance of making the playoffs with a huge game coming up against the Lightning Tuesday night.
If the Senators get in, they will present a real challenge to whomever they face. The Sens are one of the stingiest defensive teams in the NHL, allowing fewest expected goals against per game and the second fewest shots on net. Goaltending has been the biggest question mark this season, but it has been much better since the Olympic break.
The Winnipeg Jets, 5-3-2 in their past 10 games, sit 19th on our list. While the Jets sit three points back of the final wild-card spot in the West, their playoff hopes are hanging by a thread.
The Jets have a five per cent chance of making the playoffs as they will need to leapfrog four teams in their final five games of the season. If the Jets miss, scoring will be a main reason as Winnipeg ranks 25th in goals and expected goals this season.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are five games away from being able to put a disappointing season behind them. The Leafs, 28th in our Power Rankings, sit 26th in the league in points percentage.
There is no shortage of reasons why the Leafs slipped from division champs to one of the worst teams in the NHL this season.
Replacing Mitch Marner by committee didn’t work as the Leafs suffered offensively and defensively. The Leafs rank last in the NHL in expected goals against, shots, slot shots, rush chances and cycle chances against.
The only question remaining for Toronto is whether it will retain its top-five protected first-round pick or forfeit it to Boston.
The Calgary Flames land 30th on our list, which is where they sit in points percentage as well. After nearly qualifying for the playoffs last season, the Flames took a sizeable step back this year.
Strong goaltending last year masked some of the teams’ defensive issues, which showed more this season with regression in net. Additionally, goals have been hard to come by with Calgary sitting second last in goals per game.
Lastly, the Vancouver Canucks, who sit last in the NHL points percentage, goal differential and in our rankings. The Canucks have locked up the best odds to draft first overall in the upcoming NHL Draft.
While positives have been hard to come by for Vancouver this season, Brock Boeser and Marco Rossi have played well down the stretch. Boeser is averaging just over a point per game since the start of March, while Rossi has posted 16 points in 17 games.
RankTeamGoal DifferentialxG DifferentialPoints %1TBL.84.69.6712COL1.24.67.7243CAR.58.59.6754MIN.44.26.6495UTA.39.31.5666EDM.14.54.5657PIT.47.14.6158VGK.17.59.5589DAL.60.26.66210MTL.38-.20.64911OTT.23.52.58412PHI-.10.16.58413BUF.39.03.64914NJD-.25.16.53915BOS.23-.36.60916STL-.39-.10.51317NYR-.14-.26.48118LAK-.28.10.53319WPG-.20-.11.51320WSH.15-.14.55821CBJ-.01.08.57122DET-.10-.05.57123NSH-.34-.13.53324NYI-.03-.29.57125SJS-.49-.23.52726FLA-.47.18.50027ANA-.29-.27.56528TOR-.39-.64.50629SEA-.29-.53.50030CGY-.59-.58.47431CHI-.66-.80.45532VAN-1.28-.61.342
