The ATP Masters 1000 Monte Carlo continues with the 1/8-Finals, where the level starts to rise, and matchups become more competitive. With clay-court specialists gaining momentum and top seeds finding their rhythm, these matches offer strong betting opportunities based on form, surface advantage, and recent performances.
ATP Masters 1000 Monte Carlo 1/8-Finals
Auger-Aliassime – Ruud: 09.04.2026 12:30 CEST
H2H: 6-4
Felix Auger-Aliassime has won four of his last five matches. This week in Monte Carlo, the Canadian defeated Cilic in the opening round in straight sets. He trailed 1-3 in the opening set, but turned it around. This is his first clay-court tournament this season. He has never made it past the second round here in Monte Carlo. Last season, Auger-Aliassime lost to Altmaier in the opening round in straight sets.
Casper Ruud has won four of his last five matches. This week in Monte Carlo, Ruud won the opening match against Popyrin in straight sets. He offered and saved three breakpoints. In the second round, the Norwegian defeated Moutet in straight sets. He trailed 3-5 in the opening set, but turned it around. Ruud was the finalist here in 2024, losing to Tsitsipas in the final. Last season, Ruud lost to Popyrin in the third round in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be an almost 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Auger-Aliassime has never reached the third round in Monte Carlo and has rarely succeeded on clay. On the other hand, Ruud is a clay-court specialist and enjoys playing here. We expect him to win.
That being said, Ruud winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Casper Ruud winning @1.80 @bet365
Machac – Sinner: 09.04.2026 12:30 CEST
H2H: 0-3
Tomas Machac has won three of his last five matches. This week in Monte Carlo, Machac beat Altmaier in the opening match in three sets. In the second round, the Czech upset Cerundolo in straight sets. He struggled on his serve, offering 13 break points. Machac saved three consecutive set points in the opening set. Last season in Monte Carlo, Machac lost to de Minaur in the second round in three sets.
Jannik Sinner has won thirteen straight matches. He has won consecutive Masters 1000 titles in Indian Wells and Miami. This week in Monte Carlo, Sinner demolished Humbert in the opening match in straight sets. He served well, not offering any breakpoints. The Italian reached the semifinals here in 2023 and 2024, which were also his best results here. Around this time last season, Sinner was suspended for doping.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Sinner is the heavy favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Machac struggled with his form for the past few weeks. On the other hand, Sinner is in great form and has lost only three games in the opening match. We expect him to dominate in this match.
That being said, Sinner covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Jannik Sinner -6.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images
