Welterweights
BETTING ODDS: Brown (-122), Holland (+102)
Holland’s rollercoaster of a UFC career continues. He came to the
UFC in 2018 as a late replacement and made a name for himself as an
entertaining undercard fighter, but he had his true breakthrough in
the back half of 2020. Holland’s willingness to keep an active
schedule and talk trash as much as possible were a perfect fit for
the time. The UFC was scrambling to fill spots that Holland (28-15,
15-12 UFC) was more than willing to step into, with the added plus
of providing his own commentary in a mostly empty warehouse.
Holland racked up five wins in seven months to enter 2021 as one of
the promotion’s rising stars but instead wound up winless on the
year, mostly thanks to his opponents exposing his lack of takedown
defense. Rather than try to shore up those weaknesses, Holland
instead decided to drop down to welterweight. Holland found some
success at 170 pounds, though he did seem to regress as a fighter.
There were less flashes of his prior technical craft, as Holland
was now more than content to lean on his massive size advantage to
try and swing for the knockout. Holland has spent the last few
years bouncing between weight classes, with 2025 providing the
whole of the Kevin Holland Experience. He managed to squeeze five
fights into the year, got out-grappled handily by Reinier
de Ridder, looked sharp against Gunnar
Nelson and Vicente
Luque, lost an exciting but shockingly sloppy war against
Daniel
Rodriguez and then coasted to a loss against Mike Malott
while suffering the aftereffects of a brutal low blow. After taking
a rare six-month break, it’s unclear what form Holland will turn up
in for this fight against Brown. That’s part of the fun.
Brown (20-7, 14-7 UFC) came to the UFC in 2016 as a 6-foot-3 ball
of potential who was capable of anything, which has been a blessing
and a curse over the last decade. Brown has often suffered for his
wealth of options, cycling through ideas that few fighters can pull
off while failing to focus on a winning game plan. That cost “Rude
Boy” a lot more in the first half-decade of his UFC career, as he
has been on a sneakily consistent run of success over the past few
years, with his win over Nicolas
Dalby about a year ago serving as the clearest example of the
corner he has turned. Brown formerly would have been taken apart by
a dogged and durable pressure fighter like Dalby, but he instead
effectively played sniper before landing a particularly brutal
knockout in the second round. Brown’s last fight against Gabriel
Bonfim showed that the Queens native still has a ceiling.
Bonfim effectively shredded the former Ring of Combat champion’s
legs before laying down the hammer, but even playing a range game
against Brown and his lanky frame is far from a guaranteed success
as a strategy—as evidenced by his obliterating Muslim
Salikhov in short order near the beginning of 2024. Brown’s
comparative lack of durability is a worry, but with Holland
increasingly aimless, the lean is that Budokan Martial Arts Academy
product is sharp enough at this point to eke this out, particularly
since he’s one of the few welterweights who can match “Trailblazer”
in terms of length. The pick is Brown via decision.
Continue Reading »
Pico vs. Freire
Brown vs. Holland
Gamrot vs. Ribovics
Suarez vs. Godinez
Padilla vs. Mederos
Gastelum vs. Luque
Radtke vs. Prado
