Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson speaks during Monday’s rally at Thompson’s Point in Portland on Monday. (Daryn Slover/Staff Photographer)
A new independent poll suggests that undecided voters in Maine’s gubernatorial primaries are making up their minds, leading to a surge in support for former Senate President Troy Jackson among Democrats.
The University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll, conducted May 21-25, showed a 12-point jump since February for Jackson, who is now tied at 28% with former Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention Director Nirav Shah, the perceived front-runner.
Republicans, meanwhile, appear to be coalescing around lobbyist and former government official Bobby Charles, who was the first-place choice of 37% of those surveyed. Healthcare executive Jonathan Bush is showing movement, increasing his support from 5% in February to 18% in May, but he still has a lot of ground to make up, the poll shows.
The survey comes less than two weeks before the June 9 primaries. It’s the first poll showing Jackson in first place. Even his own internal poll in March showed him trailing Shah by 13 points.
Such polls are not predictive, and only represent voter sentiment at a certain point in time. Polling in Maine is difficult, especially when trying to assess the views of a smaller sample of primary voters. Ranked-choice voting also complicates surveys.
Jackson’s campaign manager touted the poll in a written statement.
“Mainers want Troy Jackson because Mainers are tired of bullshit,” Robin Logsdon said. “Troy is the only candidate for governor taking on the billionaires. That’s why Bernie Sanders, Graham Platner and over forty labor unions support him. That’s why his fellow candidates Shenna Bellows and Hannah Pingree cross-endorsed him. And that’s why he’s surging in the polls.”
Secretary of State Shenna Bellows polled at 13% — a six-point drop since February. But her showing was enough to maintain a one-point lead over former Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree, who increased her support to 12%.
Green energy entrepreneur Angus King III came in at 7% — up two points since February.
The percentage of undecided Democratic primary voters dropped from 23% in February to 11%.
Jackson, Bellows and Pingree have formed an alliance, urging supporters to rank all three candidates on their ballots in hopes of toppling Shah in an instant runoff.
In a ranked-choice election, voters can rank the candidates in order of preference. If no one wins a majority of first-place votes in the first round, the last-place finisher is eliminated, and their votes are reallocated to the other candidates in an instant runoff.
A voter’s ballot stays with their first choice until that candidate is eliminated. Then their next choice is counted. The instant runoff process repeats until a candidate gets a majority.
King is the only Democratic candidate whose net favorability rating was underwater — at minus-six points. Shah had the highest net rating at plus 52, followed by Bellows (plus 46), Jackson (plus 45) and Pingree (plus 39).
UNH surveyed 595 likely Democratic primary voters, a relatively small sample size. The results have a margin of error of plus/minus four points.
On the Republican side, Charles has increased his support to 37% — up from 28% in February, the poll showed.
But Bush appears to be making a late move. His support increased by 13 points to 18%. But he still has a lot of ground to make up, trailing Charles by a 2-to-1 margin, the UNH poll showed.
Former fitness franchise executive Ben Midgley nearly doubled his support to 11%, while former Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason, whose campaign has been fueled by outside spending, dropped three points to 9%.
Real estate developer David Jones held steady at 7%, while retail manager Robert Wessels increased two points to 6% and healthcare entrepreneur Owen McCarthy doubled his support to 2%.
The percentage of undecided voters on the Republican side dropped from 31% in February to 9%, the survey showed.
UNH surveyed 465 likely Republican primary voters. Those results have a margin of error of plus/minus 6.3 points.
