Ed Scimia
• Betting Analyst
17+ years betting experience
Updated:
Apr 12, 2026 , 12:30 PM ET
• 4 min read
With so many injuries littering the Hawks’ roster, and the Heat likely scaling back some usage for their stars ahead of the postseason, don’t expect a lot of scoring tonight at Kaseya Center.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Miami Heat forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. (11) drives to the basket as Washington Wizards forward Anthony Gill (16) defends
The Miami Heat will try to improve their Play-In seeding tonight as they host the Atlanta Hawks in the regular-season finale for both teams.
With many star players likely prioritizing rest over winning, I’m taking the Under in my Hawks vs. Heat predictions.
Keep reading to see how I’m approaching tonight’s game with my free NBA picks for Sunday, April 12.
Hawks vs Heat prediction
Hawks vs Heat best bet: Under 241.5 (-110)
Both teams have clinched a spot in the postseason — albeit in the Play-In tournament for the Miami Heat — and that will influence how each coach approaches tonight’s regular-season finale.
For the Atlanta Hawks, the injury report suggests we won’t see many of their biggest stars, as Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jonathan Kuminga, Onyeka Okongwu, and CJ McCollum are all listed as questionable.
Chances are, we’ll see someone from that list on the court. However, I seriously doubt they’ll play anywhere near their normal allotment of minutes as Atlanta prioritizes staying healthy for the postseason.
Fewer players are being held out for Miami, which makes sense, as the Heat are still playing for home-court advantage in their first Play-In game. Still, it remains to be seen just how much we’ll see Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and others.
Considering all the absences and the players likely to be limited, this game will lose a lot of scoring punch. It’s especially a problem for Atlanta, as it’ll be without many of its top playmakers against a Heat team prepping some different defensive looks ahead of the playoffs.
In three head-to-head matchups this year, these teams haven’t combined for more than 242 points, and the most recent matchup ended up with a 225-point total.
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Hawks vs Heat same-game parlay
While nearly the entire Hawks lineup is listed as questionable, the Heat will likely deploy many of their key players, including Herro (who is listed as available).
That makes me favor Miami to cover.
While I’m still staying away from their biggest stars for the most part tonight, I’ll take Jaime Jaquez Jr. (15.2 points per game) to score Over 13.5 points, something he’s done in eight of his last nine games.
Hawks vs Heat SGP
- Under 241.5
- Heat -5
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 13.5 points
Our “from downtown” SGP: Holding out for a Herro
For a long shot SGP, I’m going to bump Jaquez up to go Over 23.5 PRA, which he’s done in six of his last eight games, and to hit Over 1.5 threes after doing so eight times in 10 contests. Herro is also an excellent pick to hit his made threes prop, as he’s drained Over 2.5 shots from deep in four of his last five games.
Hawks vs Heat SGP
- Under 241.5
- Heat -5
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 23.5 points+rebounds+assists
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 1.5 made threes
- Tyler Herro Over 2.5 made threes
Hawks vs Heat odds
- Spread: Hawks +5 (-110) | Heat -5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Hawks +165 | Heat -200
- Over/Under: Over 241.5 (-110) | Under 241.5 (-110)
Hawks vs Heat betting trend to know
The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+10.59 Units / 20% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Heat.
How to watch Hawks vs Heat
Location
Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Date
Sunday, April 12, 2026
Tip-off
6:00 p.m. ET
TV
FDSN Southeast Atlanta, FDSN Sun
Hawks vs Heat latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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