MLB Power Rankings: The best and worst surprises we’ve seen so far

Every week, we ask a selected group of our baseball writers — local and national — to rank the teams from first to worst. Here are the collective results.
I am struggling to remember a time when a baseball season started quite this topsy-turvy. As of Monday morning, the Astros, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mets and Cubs were all in (or tied for) last place in their division, while the Athletics, Rays, Twins and Pirates were all in (or tied for) the division lead.
Voting to power rank these teams at this time is like asking us to rank our favorite bands, but based only on their charitable contributions — the deeper the research, the more wrong the list looks.
So yeah, it’s been a season of surprises, team and individual. This week, we’re looking at a few of those — for better or worse.
All stats are through Monday morning unless noted.
Record: 12-4
Last Power Ranking: 1
Early surprise: Andy Pages
With all of that weaponry on the Dodgers, all that largesse, who’s leading the National League in batting average, on-base percentage, hits, RBIs and OPS? Why, the humble Pages, who is also zipping around center field like a water bug and earning his defensive keep. He’d need a 2.00 ERA to be the Dodgers’ best player, but he’s doing as much as he possibly can otherwise.
Pages has had a similar start to a season back in 2024, and his current BABIP (.526) might be a teensy bit inflated, so you shouldn’t get too goofy about his star potential yet. He’s still just 25, though, and star potential is something that he clearly has. — Brisbee
Record: 9-7
Last Power Ranking: 2
Early surprise: Ben Rice
In all of baseball, nine hitters entered this week already worth at least 1.0 fWAR. One of them is a Yankee, but probably not the one you’re expecting. It’s Rice, the first baseman, who had a breakout 2025 season and continues to rake this year. He leads all qualified hitters in wRC+, which might be a bigger deal for the Yankees if not for the fact that five of their lineup regulars — Trent Grisham, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Austin Wells, Ryan McMahon and José Caballero — have a wRC+ well below 100. — Jennings
Record: 10-7
Last Power Ranking: T-3
Early surprise: Mauricio Dubón
Dubón was Plan B. The Braves traded for him early in the offseason, but when they re-signed Ha-Seong Kim a month later, Dubón was back to the utility role he’d so capably filled in Houston. Then Kim got hurt, and Dubón was the everyday shortstop (who then began playing some center field when Michael Harris got hurt). Wherever he’s played, he’s been excellent with a top-30 fWAR, a 163 rRC+ and the fifth-most Outs Above Average at shortstop. The Braves were one of three teams to get through the weekend with double-digit wins. Matt Olson has been their stud (.993 OPS) and Drake Baldwin their run producer (league-leading 17 RBIs), but Dubón has been their solution to multiple problems. — Jennings
Record: 8-9
Last Power Ranking: 6
Early surprise: Cal Raleigh
Let’s be very, very clear: Raleigh was never going to repeat his 2025 season. When an already prolific home run hitter almost doubles his output, it’s fun as heck, but it’s almost certainly unsustainable. He’s probably not going to hit 50 homers again, much less 60, but he’s still an All-Star and an MVP candidate in every season until further notice.
Just not yet. There are other Mariners struggling mightily — Josh Naylor is still looking for his first extra-base hit of the season, more than 60 at-bats in — but Raleigh’s struggles are always going to get more attention. As he goes, so do the Mariners. — Brisbee
Record: 8-7
Last Power Ranking: T-3
Early surprise: Chad Patrick’s ERA
It’s not a surprise that SP Chad Patrick is good this year — he finished 7th in NL Rookie of the Year voting last year, after all. What is a surprise is that through his first three games, he has allowed a grand total of one earned run in 12 1/3 innings. That’s an 0.74 ERA.
There are reasons to believe this might be a mirage. Just about every stat suggests that his results should be a little worse this year than last. Check this out, from Baseball Reference.
So I suppose we can say that it’s a good surprise that he’s not allowing runs. But we should not allow ourselves to be Bad-Surprised if he doesn’t keep this up. — Weaver
Record: 8-8
Last Power Ranking: 7
Early surprise: Justin Crawford
At this point, it’s hard to be surprised by Cristopher Sánchez, Jhoan Duran, Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper. They’ve been great, because of course they have. But the 22-year-old Crawford was a huge unknown, making his debut on Opening Day as the team’s much-needed solution in center field. His start has been encouraging with terrific offensive numbers, including a .408 OBP through his first 14 games. The defensive metrics aren’t nearly as encouraging — negative OAA and DRS — but his high-contact approach is working at the plate, and that’s helpful, especially when Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott are off to horrible starts. — Jennings
Record: 10-6
Last Power Ranking: 17
Early surprise: Mason Miller
It’s not a surprise that Miller is good, mind you. He throws the baseball 105 miles per hour (91 knots per hour against the Mariners), and he’s always been good at missing bats. It’s just that his current rate is both absurd and somehow entirely believable: He’s faced 24 batters and struck out 19 of them. He’s allowed just one hit and one walk so far, and the hit was to Luis Arraez, who shouldn’t count.
The human body can throw a baseball only so hard, and Miller is approaching that theoretical maximum. It’s apparently enough, though, to break baseball when it’s paired with a little command. If Miller faces as many batters as he did in his rookie season and keeps this rate up, he’ll have a legitimate chance at 200 strikeouts, which is the silliest thing I’ll type all month. — Brisbee
Record: 7-9
Last Power Ranking: T-9
Early surprise: Alex Bregman’s -0.1 bWAR
If you want a positive spin, Nico Hoerner’s newfound ability to unearth extra-base hits has been a nice one, and Edward Cabrera’s tenure in Chicago has started really well. But I don’t think either of those is all that surprising. So it’s Bregman, who entered Monday night’s matchup against the Phillies hitting just .213 (.618 OPS).
It’s not as if Bregman has never slumped before, and for his career, March/April is the only split in which his career OPS is under .800 (.765).
This is a little worse than that, so it qualifies. But it would be a much bigger surprise if Bregman’s slash line looked like this by the end of May. — Weaver
Record: 7-9
Last Power Ranking: 11
Early surprise: Javier Báez posting a career-low K%
Báez’s redemption tour began last year, when he began playing center field, and — for the first time in a long time — provided some value with the bat as well. He faded quite a bit in the second half, though, and at age 33, he’s getting into prime fall-off territory.
Not yet, though. His 22.0 percent K-rate this year is the lowest of his career. What’s more, his .158 ISO is higher than it’s been since 2021. That was the year he split between the Cubs and Mets, and also the year he struck out more than any other year.
To excel at both at the same time is great for him, and for a Tigers team that could use the help, especially with Parker Meadows on the IL. — Weaver
Record: 7-10
Last Power Ranking: T-3
Early surprise: Francisco Lindor
Lindor finished in the top 10 in MVP voting the past four years in a row. He’ll play all of this season at 32 years old, which isn’t exactly end-of-career, fall-off-the-cliff territory. Yet, these first few weeks have been a dramatic underperformance. His offensive numbers are way down, and he’s made uncharacteristic mental mistakes. That slow start has coincided with the rest of the remade Mets infield struggling out of the gate, which — combined with a rough back of the rotation — has the team below .500 in the early going. Whatever you do, Mets fans, do not look up Brandon Nimmo’s numbers in Texas. — Jennings
Record: 10-6
Last Power Ranking: 13
Early surprise: I mean … [motions to everything]
Maybe the biggest surprise is that the Pirates have spent the last six months being normal. They spent money in free agency, they called up their mega-prospect (and then extended him) without bungling the timing in any way, and then they set out to win a few baseball games this year.
That this is a surprise is quite an indictment of how the Pirates have operated in recent years. But at the time of writing, they’re tied for first place. Let’s just enjoy letting a good thing happen while it’s happening. — Weaver
Record: 9-7
Last Power Ranking: 14
Early surprise: Nathan Eovaldi’s perplexing struggles
It’s not that there hasn’t been good. The Rangers are, after a win over the A’s Monday night, all alone in first place in the AL West, and are generally hitting the ball a lot harder than they did last year. But in the middle of a season that has otherwise been more up than down, the biggest surprise — at least before Monday — had been Eovaldi.
In his first two years as a Ranger, Eovaldi was very good and was a big part of the 2023 World Series team. But last year, he was a monster, going 11-3 with a 1.73 ERA. If not for a rotator cuff issue limiting him to 22 games, that would have been a league-leading ERA and he would have been a strong Cy Young contender.
But Evo’s first three starts this year left him with a 7.98 ERA, leading the AL in both earned runs and home runs allowed. Whether or not that has anything to do with a sports hernia surgery last October is anyone’s guess, but literally every one of his six pitches has gained velocity since last year, so … who knows?
Anyway, it may be a moot point. Eovaldi went seven scoreless against the A’s on Monday, striking out seven and dropping his ERA to 5.40. It’s a good reminder for all of these surprises, actually: it’s still early. — Weaver
Record: 6-10
Last Power Ranking: 12
Early surprise: The lineup
The Red Sox built some momentum over the weekend, taking two of three from the Cardinals immediately after back-to-back wins against the Brewers. Ranger Suárez and Brayan Bello finally pitched well, and Willson Contreras has been a middle-of-the-order stud alongside Wilyer Abreu. But most of the Red Sox lineup remains underwhelming. Roman Anthony has not been the instant sensation many expected, but the bigger issue is the left side of the infield.
Only eight qualified major-league hitters entered this week with a -0.4 fWAR or worse, and two of them were the Red Sox shortstop and third baseman: Trevor Story and Caleb Durbin. The offensive struggles are deep enough that Durbin — who has a 1 wRC+ but at least doesn’t chase a ton of pitches — has recently moved into the No. 2 spot in the order. — Jennings
Record: 6-9
Last Power Ranking: 8
Early surprise: The record
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has almost twice as many walks as strikeouts. Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease have ERAs below 2.50. Jeff Hoffman has a ton of strikeouts, his home run rate is way down and his setup men have been terrific. The surprise, then, is that the Blue Jays are below .500 with one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball, and what stands out is the quality of their injured list, which includes Trey Yesavage, Cody Ponce, Shane Bieber, José Berríos, Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger, Anthony Santander and — most recently — George Springer.
The Blue Jays opened the season with three straight wins against the Athletics, and they’ve since gone 3-9, including losing five of six to the Rockies and White Sox. Rough start for the defending AL champs. — Jennings
Record: 9-7
Last Power Ranking: 16
Early surprise: A relatively sluggish start from Pete Alonso
The Orioles added two big right-handed bats this offseason. Taylor Ward has been terrific — first player to have double-digit doubles this season — but Alonso was supposed to be a bigger difference maker, and he’s struggled out of the gate, slugging below .300 with one homer and five RBIs through his first 15 games. (Editor’s note: Alonso did hit another homer on Monday night.) With Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Adley Rutschman and Tyler O’Neill hurt, the Orioles have done well to keep their heads above water — Gunnar Henderson has been a stud again, and Trevor Rogers has picked up where he left off from last year’s breakout — but Alonso and young Samuel Basallo have not been the immediate difference makers the Orioles were expecting. — Jennings
Record: 8-7
Last Power Ranking: 21
Early surprise: Chandler Simpson
Yandy Díaz has been one of the best all-around hitters in baseball (1.025 OPS through 15 games), and Jonathan Aranda has been one of the most productive (14 RBIs), but it’s the left fielder who was the early American League leader in hits. The speedy left fielder was also among the leaders in stolen bases, in no small part because he was hitting above .400 and getting on base enough to use his elite speed. The Rays’ bullpen has struggled, and Carson Williams continued his offensive struggles at the major-league level, but Simpson has provided a huge boost, including a three-hit game to finish off a three-game sweep of the Yankees on Sunday. — Jennings
Record: 10-7
Last Power Ranking: 18
Early surprise: José Ramírez vs. Austin Hedges’ slash lines.
If you know one thing about the Guardians, it’s probably that Ramírez is their best hitter, and there’s nobody else particularly close (or at least there wasn’t, until Chase DeLauter arrived).
Another detail you’re probably aware of: Hedges is one of their most important players, despite the fact that he can’t hit a lick. If I hadn’t already spoiled the answer, this would make a great “Player A vs. Player B” blind pick, but you already know, so here’s what each guy was hitting going into Monday:
Ramírez: .180/.275/.328 (.603 OPS), 5 runs scored
Hedges: .389/.421/.500 (.921 OPS), 4 runs scored
Will this keep up? Absolutely not. One or both will regress to the norm. But it’s still surprising to me, even just 10 percent of the way through the season. — Weaver
Record: 10-7
Last Power Ranking: 25
Early surprise: Austin Martin and Josh Bell
I was tempted to put Taj Bradley in here, with his 3-0 record and 1.25 ERA, but I liked Bradley quite a bit when he was with Tampa Bay, and I’m not super surprised that he’s been very good.
Instead, it’s the duo of Martin and Bell, who have led the Twins to a surprisingly good start out of the gates.
Going into Monday night’s game against the Red Sox, Bell was sporting a .926 OPS, which is his highest since 2019, his lone year as an All-Star, back in Pittsburgh. For Martin, this seems to be a continuation of a slow-and-steady improvement since breaking into the big leagues in 2024. Average, on-base and slugging all improved from 2024 to 2025 and have so far carried over.
Throw in some good pitching performances, and the Twins are, themselves, quite a surprise. — Weaver
Record: 9-8
Last Power Ranking: 19
Early surprise: Sandy Alcantara
One of the great unknowns heading into this season was the viability of Alcantara as a top-of-the-rotation starter. For the most part, he’s looked very much like his old self. Even after a letdown Sunday against the Tigers, Alcantara came into the week with the most innings and lowest expected ERA in the majors. He’s not striking out a lot of batters, but that was never his biggest strength, and he’s helped keep the Marlins competitive in the early going. If they do fall off in the coming months, Alcantara could yet again be one of the most talked-about trade chips in the game. So far, his value is on the rise. — Jennings
Record: 6-11
Last Power Ranking: T-9
Early surprise: The entire starting rotation
At the very beginning of the season, Hunter Brown made two starts that justified his lofty status in the Aces Project. Tatsuya Imai was coming off a strong spring, and there was a chance that the Astros got the steal of the offseason. Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. were back. If you squinted, it was the rotation of a contender.
Cut to the middle of April, and three of the four are on the IL. Only McCullers is healthy, but he’s sporting a 5.87 ERA. That isn’t much worse than the other two healthy members of the current rotation, Mike Burrows and Cody Bolton, both of whom also have ERAs over 5.00. It’s quite the mess, and there aren’t any quick fixes. — Brisbee
Record: 7-9
Last Power Ranking: 15
Early surprise: Bobby Witt Jr.
Through the Royals’ first 16 games, Witt has 16 hits and 10 walks for an on-base percentage of .371. Additionally, he has stolen a league-leading eight bases, so while he’s not hitting for much power yet (only 3 XBH’s, all doubles), he’s still getting into scoring position.
And yet, he has scored precisely one run, back on March 29 against Atlanta.
Witt scored 99 of the Royals’ 651 runs last year. That’s 15.2 percent, a pace only exceeded by five other players: Shohei Ohtani (17.7, Dodgers), Aaron Judge (16.1, Yankees), José Ramírez (16.0, Guardians), Fernando Tatis Jr. (15.8, Padres) and Juan Soto (15.7, Mets).
The 651 runs ranked 26th out of 30 teams last year. This year, they’re tied for 26th. So it’s not like there’s been a drastic change in runs scored. It’s just not Witt scoring them, for some inexplicable reason. — Weaver
Record: 9-8
Last Power Ranking: 20
Early surprise: Geraldo Perdomo
Perdomo is on the José Ramírez career path, where he’s on every “most underrated” list until it’s clear that he’s on a Hall of Fame trajectory, at which point he becomes very properly rated. He’s one of the best players you don’t think about that often, someone who gives the Diamondbacks a possible-if-distant chance to catch the Dodgers.
At the moment, however, he is awful, making outs at the plate and on the bases, and leading all baseball with five double plays hit into. This will not continue, and the Diamondbacks — still performing well enough — have something to look forward to. — Brisbee
Record: 8-8
Last Power Ranking: T-26
Early surprise: Nick Kurtz
To be clear, it’s not like anyone should be worried about Kurtz or — and you have to pretend that I’m waving my arms wildly, here — literally any healthy player mentioned in this entire article just yet. It’s not even Tax Day yet.
The surprise here is that the Athletics are on something of a roll, humiliating various New York teams on a wildly successful trip, and they’re doing it without Kurtz, who can’t get anything going other than his walk game so far. Just imagine if he resumes whomping like he’s whomped before. All of this goes for Tyler Soderstrom, Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker, too. If the A’s are currently having a good season without them … just imagine what they could be with them. — Brisbee
Record: 9-7
Last Power Ranking: 22
Early surprise: Andrew Abbott
C. Trent Rosecrans wrote about Abbott — and the rest of the Reds’ rotation, for that matter — in much more detail here, but the short version is: he just has not looked at all like last year’s All-Star who finished 8th in NL Cy Young voting.
The Reds’ offense has not been good enough to carry the team, but I expected their rotation to keep them in the hunt all year, and Abbott was a huge part of that belief. With Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo on the IL, they need the borderline-ace they saw last year if they want to make a run at what appears to be a very winnable NL Central. — Weaver
Record: 7-9
Last Power Ranking: 28
Early surprise: The lineup
If we’re singling out one player, it’s probably Foster Griffin, the 30-year-old prospect bust who spent the past three years in Japan and signed with the Nationals in December. Through three starts, he has a 1.76 ERA (and those three starts were no pushovers against the Phillies, Dodgers and Brewers). But the broader surprise is probably the Nats’ lineup, which ranks fourth in the majors in wRC+ (behind only the Dodgers, Astros and Braves). James Wood and CJ Abrams have been terrific, but they’ve gotten help, especially from some of the team’s role players. — Jennings
Record: 8-9
Last Power Ranking: 24
Early surprise: José Soriano
An 0.00 ERA is, by definition, the best that a pitcher can ever achieve, but there’s something even more impressive about a 0.33 ERA, like Soriano’s. It’s as if he allowed a single run out of mercy or pity, before resuming his unspeakable reign of sinker-fueled terror.
Soriano isn’t 0.33-ERA-good, if only because nobody is, but the Angels finally have a pitcher worth watching. The last time you could say that, the pitcher was also one of their only hitters worth watching, and that feels like six decades ago. — Brisbee
Record: 6-10
Last Power Ranking: 23
Early surprise: Logan Webb
Webb’s entire game is getting hitters to beat baseballs into the ground, so he’s going to spend his entire career running away from the BABIPdook. He’ll get away some of the time, and he’ll get devoured some of the time. But he’ll only ever be as good as the defense behind him, and the Giants’ defense (especially at first base) has been regrettable.
It’s not just the BABIPdook and bad defense that’s killing Webb, though. As the baserunners have piled up, he’s nibbled more and missed fewer bats. His strikeout gains from last season have mostly disappeared, and the team’s offensive struggles have him pitching like someone scared to give up a single run, which he should be. There’s no contending Giants team in 2026 without the real Logan Webb back. — Brisbee
Record: 8-8
Last Power Ranking: T-26
Early surprise: Jordan Walker
Walker has had hot stretches like this before, and they didn’t stick around for very long, so you’re not wrong to be skeptical. However, Walker is blessed with a rare epistemological condition where he is always two years younger than you think he is. The Cardinals have been waiting so long for him to break out, it feels like a typo to read that he’s still just 23.
Either way, Walker has more home runs already in 2026 than he did in either 2024 or 2025, and he’s looking like the All-Star who was promised. Another couple of weeks like his first two, and he’ll practically have a nod secured already. — Brisbee
Record: 6-10
Last Power Ranking: 30
Early surprise: Kyle Freeland
When Andrew Vaughn moved from the White Sox to the Brewers last season, one could imagine him walking around and saying things like, “Whoa, you have televisions in the clubhouse? And scouting reports?” It’s the easiest way to make sense of how much better he was when he went from an incompetent organization to a competent one.
Freeland didn’t have to go anywhere, but maybe the competent organization came to him. Baseball has changed a ton since he finished fourth in the 2018 NL Cy Young race, but this is the first time the Rockies have really reinvented themselves since then. Maybe they have a plan to help him and turn him into the best version of himself. Imagine such a thing. — Brisbee
Record: 6-10
Last Power Ranking: 29
Early surprise: Davis Martin
It’s easy, when a team has been bad for quite some time, to look at its roster and see names you don’t recognize. There are just more interesting things happening than keeping up with the White Sox’s 14th round pick from 2018 (no offense).
But Martin has been perfectly serviceable since his debut in 2022 (that’s actually a huge compliment, given how many White Sox have not cleared that bar in the intervening years).
This year, however, he seems to be finding a different gear. So far, he’s setting career-bests in a slew of numbers, including ERA (2.50). Looking into his pitch data, the only huge difference I can see is that he has ditched his sweeper, and he’s throwing his curveball about 4 mph faster than last year.
Is that a bit of a stretch for a surprise? Yes. But the White Sox are 6-10. They rank 30th in the league in runs scored and 25th in runs allowed. The surprises are few and far between. — Weaver




