A few weeks ago, our own Ryan Mathews broke down what it would cost if the Detroit Lions were to trade up in the 2026 NFL Draft. Now let’s look at the other side of the coin.
The Lions may be more interested in trading down this year. Entering the draft without any picks between 51 and 117, trading down in the first round could be a relatively easy way for Detroit to regain a third-round pick and add another player who could contribute this year.
So I looked at all the recent first-round trades that happened somewhat near Detroit’s current 17th overall pick to see what the team could fetch if they opt to move down. Those are split into three categories: minor trade downs, medium trade downs, and massive trade downs.
Minor trade downs (1-4 spots)
2023: Patriots trade down from 14 to 17
- 17th overall pick
- Fourth-round pick (120 overall)
2022: Ravens trade down from 23 to 25
- 25th overall
- Fourth-round pick (130 overall)
Looking at a couple of slight trade-downs from the last three drafts, it’s clear that if the Lions wanted to move down to somewhere around 20th in the draft, they could add a fourth-round pick, giving them a third selection in that round.
Medium trade downs (5-8 spots)
2024: Jaguars trade down from 17 to 23
- 23rd overall pick
- fifth-round pick (167 overall)
- 2025 third-round pick
- 2025 fourth-round pick
2024: Cowboys trade down from 24 to 29
- 29th overall pick
- Third-round pick (73 overall)
- 24th overall pick
- 2025 seventh-round pick
2022: Commanders trade down from 11 to 16
- 16th overall pick
- Third-round pick (98)
- Fourth-round pick (120)
2022: Patriots trade down from 21 to 29
- 29th overall pick
- Third-round pick (94th overall)
- Fourth-round pick (121)
There is a wealth of examples of medium-sized trades, but the value of those trades is a bit all over the place. The Jaguars got a bounty for trading back from 17 to 23, but two of those picks were in future years—only netting a fifth-round pick in that year’s draft.
The more common medium trade-downs have resulted in an extra third-round pick or a third and fourth-round pick.
Massive trade downs (9+ spots)
2022: Vikings make massive trade down from 12 to 32
- 32nd overall pick
- Second-round pick (34th overall)
- Third-round pick (66th overall)
- 12th overall pick
- Second-round pick (46th overall)
2021: Vikings trade down from 14 to 23
- 23rd overall pick
- Third-round pick (66)
- Third-round pick (86)
- 14th overall pick
- Fourth-round pick (143)
2021: Giants trade down from 11 to 20
- 20th overall pick
- Fifth-round pick (164)
- 2022 first-round pick
- 2022 fourth-round pick
Note on this trade: This was the Bears trading up to grab Justin Fields, so they may have overpaid to get their “franchise” quarterback.
Lions fans will be familiar with the first example—their massive trade up to get Jameson Williams. Oddly, that only resulted in an upgraded second-round pick and an extra third-round pick for the Vikings. That still looks like terrible value four years later.
The other two examples are far more conservative trade-downs—nine spots instead of 20—, but the returns are inconsistent. The Vikings got a third and upgraded a fourth to a third in 2021, but the Giants got a massive haul in their nine-spot trade down. While they only picked up a fifth-round pick in that year’s draft, they added a future first-round pick and a fourth-round pick. But as noted below the trade, this was the Bears trading up for a quarterback (Fields), so they may have overpaid.
This history of massive trade-ups isn’t sufficient to draw any strong conclusions about what the Lions could acquire if they traded down to 26 or lower. A massive trade down could result in anything from a future first-round pick to a pair of third-round picks.
