Can Nathan MacKinnon and the Colorado Avalanche claim another Stanley Cup championship? Are the Buffalo Sabres ready to make their mark in the postseason after winning the Atlantic Division and ending a historic playoff drought?
With the Stanley Cup playoffs upon us, The Athletic polled its NHL staff on their picks for who will win each first-round series, the Eastern and Western Conferences, the Conn Smythe and the Stanley Cup, as well as picks for the most overrated team and a playoff dark horse.
To analyze and critique the picks, we’ve brought in senior writers Sean Gentille, James Mirtle and Mark Lazerus and analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman.
Lazerus: The Wild tied the NHL record for the fewest regulation wins (31) in a 100-point-plus season. And there’s no three-on-three or shootouts in the playoffs. I lean Dallas here based on that, and also because of its forward depth, goaltending and experience. But the Stars are banged up and Quinn Hughes is capable of taking over any game on his own. Should be fun — and, based on these predictions, long.
Goldman: If anyone says the playoff format is fine, show them this matchup. The Wild and Stars should face each other in Round 2 at the earliest, but here we are. It makes sense why we all see this one going long; Roope Hintz’s injury and the uncertainty around Miro Heiskanen only add to that closeness.
Mirtle: I picked up this stat elsewhere, but it’s worth repeating here: Eight of the NHL’s top nine teams are playing one another in Round 1! Dallas has enough advantages — including probably in goal — that it feels like the right pick, but this is probably coming down to a goal or two either way to decide it.
Gentille: I feel like the Stars are more likely to end it quickly, but the Wild are more likely to win a Game 7. That’s based on nothing and makes no sense, but whatever.
Lazerus: Beware the team that had to fight and scratch and claw just to get into the playoffs, because it has been in postseason mode for weeks. The Penguins have not. I don’t think the Flyers are all that good, but I’m still surprised this is so lopsided.
Goldman: I picked the Penguins, so I added to the lopsidedness of this, but the Flyers have Cinderella Story written all over them.
Mirtle: The story for Philadelphia all season has been its underrated defensive play and general stinginess (plus Dan Vladar’s surprising as a No. 1). If the Flyers can find a way to limit a Penguins team that’s been surprising the other way — piling up the offense — this will be a very close series.
Gentille: Vladar hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s been reliable. In a series against Stuart Skinner, that’s relevant.
Lazerus: Boston fans have had so much success in so many sports in the last decade-plus. Buffalo fans have … not. For fans of teams that missed the playoffs, this is the easiest bandwagon choice ever.
Goldman: The Bruins feel like such a wild card because some nights they look like such a threat, and other times it’s just patchy defense covered up by Jeremy Swayman. I think the Sabres are taking things — they’re a wagon after all — but I won’t be surprised if it goes seven.
Mirtle: Finally, it’s Rasmus Dahlin’s time to shine in games that matter — and I predict he does just that. That building is going to be a lot of fun come Game 1.
Gentille: The survey wouldn’t let me pick “Sabres in three.”
Lazerus: Covering a playoff game at the Bell Centre is on my journalism bucket list. This series could be closer than our picks suggest.
Goldman: Jakub Dobeš feels like such an X-factor to shake this series up, especially if playoff-mode Andrei Vasilevskiy doesn’t get back on track. But the Lightning are just a much stronger and more advanced version of the Canadiens.
Mirtle: Tough draw for Montreal — not much of a reward for a 106-point season. It feels like Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki are going to have to be otherworldly to win this one.
Gentille: The top of Montreal’s lineup is good enough to beat a lot of teams, but Tampa Bay’s depth is tough to pick against.
Lazerus: The Hurricanes are entering the postseason as a favorite but without a reliable goaltender? How original!
Goldman: The Senators have big dark horse energy, so I do not buy this one! I’m one of the 23.3 percent picking Ottawa.
Mirtle: As someone who covered their series last year, I wouldn’t call the Senators’ goaltending reliable either. A ton rests on Linus Ullmark, as he’s going to see a lot of rubber here.
Gentille: Ullmark’s been pretty good since he returned to the lineup, but I just can’t get there with the Sens overall. This feels like an overcorrection to previous Carolina disappointments.
Lazerus: I’m far too lazy to look this up, but I have to think this is the first time we’ve ever had more than half the staff pick a sweep in a playoff series.
Goldman: Upsets happen, even to the most stacked teams (think Columbus over Tampa Bay in 2019 or Florida over Boston in 2023). It just feels unlikely here. Sorry, L.A., this is what you get for only having 22 regulation wins!
Gentille: That’s 11 fewer than the Blues. The Blues!
Mirtle: All the other top teams are playing clubs with 100 points or those with dark horse potential. The Avs are playing a team that had fewer points than four teams that missed the playoffs.
Lazerus: For those of us who wanted a Ducks-Sharks series because of the complete disregard for defense both teams have, this is a pretty adequate substitute.
Goldman: A true chaos series, here’s hoping we get six or seven games of it.
Mirtle: Lukáš Dostál has been somewhat meh this season, but he has the potential to steal a series. And I think he’ll need to in order to pull off the upset here — even though these teams’ records are so close.
Gentille: Sometimes, the Oilers are good enough to outscore their problems, and I think that’ll be on display here. They’ve also been oddly competent defensively down the stretch, so we’ll see how that goes.
Lazerus: I have Utah winning this one in my lone “upset” of the first round. The Mammoth would have run away with the Pacific Division this season.
Goldman: This feels like the only real potential upset in the West. Vegas is figuring it out, but the Mammoth have a lot of speed and high-octane offense.
Mirtle: I also picked the Mammoth to upset in what would not be a mammoth upset. The “Zammoth” vibes are one key reason why.
Gentille: I think I went Mammoth here too, largely to hedge against my preseason Stanley Cup pick, the Vegas Golden Knights.
Lazerus: Did I miss the Hurricanes signing a goalie? Honestly, these are reasonable predictions. The East is deeper than the West, but there are no great teams in the East. It really is wide open.
Mirtle: Yeah, I honestly didn’t know who to pick here; it feels like it could be almost anyone, especially given how hot teams such as the Sens and Bruins were down the stretch.
Gentille: I went with the Lightning, a team I also nearly picked to lose in the first round. That says something about the field.
Lazerus: The only thing that can stand in the way of the Avs (or the Stars, for that matter) is if the second round is so brutal that it softens them up for whoever emerges from the pillow fight. Well, that and Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
Goldman: One of the few who picked Dallas here — yes, it has to go through Colorado, but if that team is healthy … look out.
Mirtle: I’m hearing a lot of positive buzz for Edmonton. Hard to bet against McDavid and Draisaitl simply turning it on and dominating after what’s been an underwhelming year for the Oilers.
Gentille: Tiebreaker goes to the team most likely to get a free pass in Round 1. Congrats, Avs.
Lazerus: This is chalkier than those little Valentine’s Day heart candies.
Goldman: The Avalanche are a force, but to get through what is likely a gauntlet of a path and win it all … that would be impressive.
Mirtle: Stars should probably be higher.
Gentille: Nobody picked the Sabres? Gutless, all of us.
Lazerus: Jackson Blake! I love it. Shoot your shot.
Goldman: One of these picks is not like the other. I like it.
Mirtle: Were we supposed to be drinking when we made these?
Lazerus: Again, Utah should have been the pick here. That’s a dangerous lineup.
Goldman: I really feel like it could be anyone here, except for maybe Anaheim.
Gentille: Ducks have caught a lot of strays here, huh?
Mirtle: Penguins would be the funnest option.
Lazerus: If the Wild lose to the Stars, the second-best team in the league, is that really a disappointment? Well, yeah, I guess after eight straight first-round exits and the biggest trade in franchise history, it would be.
Goldman: Dallas-Minnesota isn’t fair here. Tampa Bay or Carolina feel like more fair picks, because on paper, those series look so lopsided in their favor.
Mirtle: This one proved a lot harder without the Leafs in the mix.
Gentille: To be clear, I think the Sabres are about to go 16-0, but there’s a world in which Swayman goes into sicko mode and they absorb a truly devastating first-round loss.
