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UFC Winnipeg: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott continues on the main card with a fight between Thiago Moises and Gauge Young in the lightweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Moises-Young prediction and pick.
Thiago Moises (19-9) needs a bounce-back performance after suffering a brutal first-round knockout loss to Jared Gordon last May. Before that setback, the Brazilian grappling specialist secured a hard-fought decision win over Trey Ogden. His chin will be heavily tested by a high-volume prospect, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Gauge Young (10-3).
Gauge Young (10-3) is looking to build upon his first promotional victory. After dropping a tough short-notice decision to Evan Elder, the American prospect rebounded strongly by besting Maheshate via unanimous decision, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Thiago Moises.
UFC Winnipeg Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Winnipeg Odds: Thiago Moises-Gauge Young Odds
Thiago Moises: +110
Gauge Young: -130
Over 2.5 rounds: -195
Under 2.5 rounds: +150
Why Thiago Moises Will Win
Thiago Moises holds a massive experience advantage in this lightweight contest, possessing the exact high-level grappling credentials needed to derail the surging Gauge Young. The Brazilian veteran has consistently faced the absolute elite of the 155-pound division, giving him a distinct edge in composure and tactical awareness under the bright lights.
While Young brings aggressive forward pressure and solid striking, he routinely leaves his head on the center line when throwing heavy combinations. Moises can expertly exploit this defensive flaw by slipping inside the American’s wide punches and immediately forcing grueling clinch exchanges against the fence.
Once the fight inevitably hits the canvas, the sheer discrepancy in elite submission grappling will become glaringly obvious. Moises is a highly decorated black belt who excels at seamlessly chaining submission attempts to overwhelm less experienced opponents who rely purely on raw athleticism.
Expect the seasoned veteran to weather any early striking storms before completely dictating the pace and location of the fight. Moises will comfortably secure a second-round submission victory, proving there are still distinct levels to the lightweight division.
Why Gauge Young Will Win
Gauge Young possesses the exact stylistic tools necessary to completely overwhelm the experienced Thiago Moises in this lightweight clash. The American prospect brings a relentless pace and high-volume striking attack that has historically caused severe problems for the Brazilian veteran.
Moises often struggles with his overall offensive output, frequently allowing aggressive opponents to dictate the terms of the fight. Young averages nearly six significant strikes per minute, which will let him easily outpoint his hesitant opponent and establish early octagon dominance.
While Moises desperately needs to drag this fight to the canvas to utilize his elite jiu-jitsu, he faces a truly daunting task. Young boasts an impressive takedown defense rate that will effectively force the Brazilian to engage in a frustrating kickboxing match.
By consistently stuffing those predictable grappling entries, the American can systematically walk down his opponent and unleash heavy combinations against the fence. Moises tends to shell up defensively when backed into the cage, offering Young a stationary target to land damaging body shots.
Ultimately, Moises simply lacks the striking firepower necessary to command respect or slow down the surging prospect’s forward momentum. Expect Young to secure a massive victory by executing a pressure-fighting masterclass to earn a clear, dominant unanimous decision.
Final Thiago Moises-Gauge Young Prediction & Pick
The highly anticipated lightweight clash between Thiago Moises and Gauge Young at UFC Winnipeg offers a classic stylistic battle between a seasoned grappler and an explosive striker. Moises brings massive octagon experience into the Canada Life Centre, eager to utilize his world-class jiu-jitsu against a rising prospect.
Young enters his first main card appearance carrying significant momentum after securing his first promotional victory over Hayisaer Maheshate. The American prospect heavily relies on his aggressive forward pressure and high-volume kickboxing to establish control and systematically break down opponents.
However, Young’s tendency to leave his head on the center line when throwing heavy combinations presents a dangerous opening for his veteran opponent. Moises is highly adept at ducking under looping strikes to force grueling clinch sequences and secure his heavily favored takedowns.
Once this matchup inevitably hits the canvas, the stark difference in high-level submission experience will heavily dictate the terms of the fight. Young possesses solid takedown defense, but defending relentless grappling transitions from a decorated black belt is incredibly exhausting over fifteen minutes.
Expect the Brazilian veteran to weather an early striking storm from Young before effectively turning the contest into a grinding grappling masterclass. Thiago Moises secured the mid-fight submission, relying on his elite ground game to derail the young prospect.
Final Thiago Moises-Gauge Young Prediction & Pick: Thiago Moises (+110), Under 2.5 Rounds (+150)
UFC Winnipeg: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott continues on the main card with a fight between Thiago Moises and Gauge Young in the lightweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Moises-Young prediction and pick. Thiago Moises (19-9) needs a bounce-back performance after suffering a brutal first-round knockout loss to Jared Gordon last May.
