The Mets, Phillies and Astros have deeper problems than their managers. That doesn’t mean they’re safe

Is there something in the air this season? I don’t know, but it sure seems like “The Curse of Samuel Joseph” might strike early.

Longtime readers are familiar with “The Curse of Samuel Joseph,” a potent spell aptly named by the late Jerome Holtzman of the Chicago Tribune.

Samuel Joseph is the oldest of my three children, born on May 21, 1991. On each of the first three days of his life, a major-league manager was fired. First the Chicago Cubs’ Don Zimmer, then the Kansas City Royals’ John Wathan, then the Baltimore Orioles’ Frank Robinson. So much for the joy of new fatherhood. I was covering the Orioles at the time.

Perhaps Sam, in honor of his 35th birthday, is bucking for an early present this year. His curse already is hovering over three managers: the New York Mets’ Carlos Mendoza, Philadelphia Phillies’ Rob Thomson and Houston Astros’ Joe Espada.

I’m not saying they will be fired. I’m not saying they should be fired. But seeing as how their respective clubs are carrying three of the game’s seven highest payrolls — and that their owners seem capable of pulling a Steinbrenner (George, not Hal) — I just don’t trust that they won’t be fired.

Oops, sorry for the double negative. I’ll be happy to apologize for botching the English language the moment the owners and heads of baseball operations of the Mets, Phillies and Astros take responsibility for the poor roster constructions that might lead them to scapegoat their managers.

In normal years, clubs typically start changing managers in mid-to-late May, when the season is about one-fourth complete, as opposed to the current one-eighth. The curse did strike a bit earlier last season, when three dismissals — the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Derek Shelton, Colorado Rockies’ Bud Black and Baltimore’s Brandon Hyde — occurred between May 8 and 17. None of those teams fully recovered. None was good to begin with.

In-season dismissals, then, are often unfair. But they are not always unwarranted. A classic example occurred in 2022, when — against my misguided recommendation — the Phillies fired Joe Girardi after a 22-29 start, replaced him with Thomson and made it to the World Series. They were then vanquished by the Astros, whose owner, Jim Crane, celebrated by parting with his general manager, James Click.

When players perceive a manager to be too tight, the way the Phillies did with Girardi, it’s time to go. The same is true when players perceive a manager to be too worried about retaining his job. And sometimes when a team looks like it needs new energy, fresh leadership, just something different.

The two earliest firings in major-league history occurred six games into the season — in 1988, when the Orioles dumped Cal Ripken Sr., and 2002, when the Detroit Tigers replaced Phil Garner and GM Randy Smith. The latter moves were orchestrated by none other than current Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who named himself GM in addition to remaining team president and eventually rebuilt the franchise.

If a team fires a manager this quickly, it probably should not have brought him back in the first place. But circumstances in baseball change quickly. Fans, particularly in large markets, grow impatient. And though the expanded postseason provides a safety net to teams that get off to poor starts, the noise surrounding Mendoza and Thomson, in particular, is getting louder.

The list that follows is not necessarily complete. The Boston Red Sox’s 8-13 record is the same as the Phillies’. But an early move with Alex Cora, who is in the second year of a three-year, $21.75 million contract, seems unlikely.

The three managers discussed below might be in greater short-term trouble.

Mendoza

The Mets’ 11-game losing streak matches their longest since 2002. They’re already eight games behind the Atlanta Braves. And lest anyone forget, FanGraphs estimates their payroll to be $370 million, second only to the Los Angeles Dodgers’.

Would the Mets really fire Mendoza when they’ve been without Juan Soto since April 3, going 3-11 in that span? That’s one good question. Should president of baseball operations David Stearns be under greater scrutiny for his overhaul of the roster? That’s another.

The projection models loved the Mets. Before the season, FanGraphs had them winning more games than every team but the Dodgers. The talent was there. The question was how that talent would fit together.

I wrote in January that the Mets had defensive concerns, injury concerns and perhaps chemistry concerns, too. I also wrote that with so many new players, “don’t be surprised if it takes this team time to jell.”

The Mets changed more than just players, too. They also brought in virtually an entirely new coaching staff, the type of turnover that often presages the firing of a manager. Two of those coaches, former pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and former first-base coach Antoan Richardson, moved on to the Braves (Richardson left when he and the Mets could not agree on compensation).

How’s that working out thus far?

The new players and coaches weren’t responsible for the Mets’ collapse last season. But they’re the ones living with the fallout from that collapse and the expectations Stearns raised after breaking up the team’s core. They didn’t have experience dealing with New York’s pressure. And to this point, at least, it all seems to be too much.

Two years ago, in his first season, Mendoza rallied the Mets from a 22-33 start to an appearance in the National League Championship Series. Friday, Stearns said Mendoza was “doing a really good job” putting players in position to succeed. And yet, during their losing streak, the Mets have been outscored 62-19. That’s right: Over the last 11 games, Bo Bichette and company are averaging 1.7 runs per game.

Stearns has never fired a manager in-season. Mendoza, who is in the last guaranteed year of his contract, was Stearns’ handpicked choice to replace Buck Showalter. So this ultimately might come down to Cohen’s willingness to stay the course.

The potential replacements for Mendoza would include farm director Andy Green, who managed the San Diego Padres from 2016 to ’19; bench coach Kai Correa, who has never managed; and newly elected Hall of Famer Carlos Beltrán, who has never coached or managed. The Mets hired Beltrán to take over for Mickey Callaway in 2020, but he stepped down over his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal without ever managing. Cohen bought the team later that year.

The Mets’ problems, which include $340 million shortstop Francisco Lindor playing as if he’s in an occasional daze, go far beyond Mendoza. But that’s almost always the case when a team fires its manager. And with Mendoza, the question might no longer be if but when.

Thomson

All you need to know about the Phillies was on display Saturday night when Citizens Bank Park emptied in the late innings despite the home team only trailing the Braves 3-1.

Fans in Philly are known to boo. But the evacuation of CBP, in a sense, was worse. Braves ace Chris Sale was out of the game. A Phillies comeback was still possible. Yet, the fans seemed to have no faith.

That’s not a good sign for Thomson, who replaced Girardi in early June 2022 when the team was in the same type of malaise. The core of that club remains, from Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto to Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. But they’re all four years older now, and after repeated disappointment in the postseason, the underlying fear is that this group has already peaked.

If that indeed proves the case, Dombrowski would be more to blame than Thomson. The Phillies’ pitching should be fine, particularly after Wheeler returns from thoracic outlet decompression surgery, possibly next weekend. The staff entered Sunday ranked second in walk rate and third in strikeout rate, and it ranked 27th in ERA in part due to poor luck. The .357 batting average on balls in play by the Phillies’ opponents was the highest in the league by 32 percentage points.

The offense is a greater concern. The lineup beyond Trea Turner, Harper and Schwarber is thin. Each of those players is in his age-33 season, and Realmuto is in his age-35 season. None of them is necessarily fading. Neither is Wheeler, who turns 36 next month, nor Nola, who turns 33 in June. But at the very least, all are approaching the end of their prime.

The Phillies do not entirely lack upside. They are incorporating two rookies this season: pitcher Andrew Painter and outfielder Justin Crawford. Infielder Aidan Miller, the team’s top prospect, might have joined as an alternative to either struggling second baseman Bryson Stott or third baseman Alec Bohm. But Miller has been sidelined all season with a back injury.

Projecting calm is one of Thomson’s strengths, and the team in December extended him through 2027, partly with that in mind. But owner John Middleton is sensitive to fan reaction. And Dombrowski has shown he will not hesitate to act if he believes a change is necessary.

The Phillies won 95 and 96 games the past two seasons with essentially the same cast. Like the Mets, they are talented enough to snap out of it. If they don’t, they could replace Thomson with their first-year bench coach, Don Mattingly, who previously managed the Dodgers and Miami Marlins.

It’s not known whether Mattingly would want the job. His son Preston is the Phillies’ GM, creating a potentially awkward situation. Thomson’s staff includes other possible replacements, starting with third-base coach Dusty Wathan.

After Sunday night’s 4-2 loss to the Braves, the Phillies are 5-10 at Citizens Bank Park, where they had the best home record in the majors in each of the past two seasons. Their schedule will not get any easier, with the next seven games coming on the road against the Chicago Cubs and Braves.

Girardi in 2022 got 51 games. Thomson is at 21 and counting. Something needs to change in this team’s performance, and soon.

Espada

If ever an owner should understand the value of patience, it’s the Astros’ Jim Crane.

In 2024, Espada’s first season, the Astros started 12-24. They ended up winning the AL West at 88-73 before getting swept by the Detroit Tigers in the Wild Card Series.

At 8-15, the current Astros arguably are in worse shape than the ’24 collection was. Espada, though, is hardly to blame.

Fourteen Astros players, the most of any club, are on the injured list. The group includes five starting pitchers, including staff ace Hunter Brown, plus three-time Trevor Hoffman Award-winner Josh Hader and 2025 All-Star shortstop Jeremy Peña. On top of that, The Athletic’s Chandler Rome writes that the roster assembled by GM Dana Brown is not exactly a functional masterpiece.

The problem for Espada and Brown is that they are effectively on notice, operating with votes of no-confidence. Both are in the final years of their contracts. Their team faces the possibility of missing the playoffs in two straight seasons for the first time since 2013-14. And they’re working for an owner who famously said in 2021, “While I’m here, the window always will be open.”

Translation: We’d better win.

Heck, even that might not be enough. Crane, as detailed earlier, had no problem saying farewell to a World Series-winning GM. He routinely has done the same with star players, losing George Springer, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman and Framber Valdez to free agency (the Astros have since reacquired Correa). Kyle Tucker, traded to the Cubs the year before he hit the open market, was another significant loss. But Crane’s expectation is that the team will keep thriving, as it always has.

Well, the Astros haven’t won a playoff game since 2023. They had a seven-game lead in the AL West last July 6 and lost it, ending their run of eight straight postseason appearances, in part due to injuries to Hader and designated hitter Yordan Alvarez. Now their injuries are mounting to an even greater extent, with a dubious silver lining: Peña’s lack of availability for more than half the games has prevented the Astros’ infield glut from becoming an issue.

Correa, the team’s dominant voice, said last Monday: “I don’t want to attach our failures to injuries. Our injuries are because we’re playing s—-y baseball. We’re a good club playing bad baseball.”

Correa seemed to be pointing the finger more at the players than Espada; the Astros are not playing like a poorly managed club. But his comment was the type that might only embolden Crane, particularly when Alvarez, the major-league leader with 10 homers, and Jose Altuve, batting .298 with an .880 OPS, are healthy.

If nothing else, Crane might want to create sizzle by replacing Espada with bench coach Omar López, who just managed Venezuela to the World Baseball Classic title. Such a move, though, might amount to little more than a temporary distraction.

The Astros’ problems, like the Mets’ and Phillies’, run deeper than the manager.