Bold predictions for Round 1 of 2026 NFL Draft: Chiefs provide top-10 surprise; 3 receivers go early

QB + RB + TE = WR? Don’t sleep on the less-heralded talent pools

Look across the football media spectrum and you’ll find mocks consistently projecting between five and six receivers will go within the first 32 picks. There’s a lot less enthusiasm around quarterback, running back and tight end, though. Outside of Fernando Mendoza, Jeremiyah Love and Kenyon Sadiq — the consensus QB1, RB1 and TE1, respectively, in this year’s class — there doesn’t seem to be much shared confidence in another player at any of the three positions coming off the board on Night 1. So why am I bucking the experts with this bold take? Because I think there are too many QB-needy teams out there for Alabama’s Ty Simpson to slip out of the first round. And with multiple teams slated to select in the back end of the round needing an RB or TE, I could see at least one of those squads falling in love with the likes of Jadarian Price (Seahawks?) or Eli Stowers (Eagles, Patriots, Chiefs?). And that would bring the total to five, which is my magic number. According to NFL IQ’s draft data, the QB-RB-TE first-round total has hit five or more in 72% of drafts since 2008; WRs, on the other hand, have reached five or more in just 41% of drafts during that same time frame. And though that wideout number has trended higher in recent first rounds, I think we’re in store for some late-round surprises this year.