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UFC Cage Locks: Ex-champ Sterling a slight underdog against Zalal

Aljamain Sterling and Youssef Zalal will look to make a statement this weekend.

The featherweight contenders are set for a five-round UFC Fight Night main event at the Meta Apex with the winner getting one step closer to a title shot in the 145-pound division.

Sterling, 36, is a former 135-pound champion who has looked strong in his new weight classes since and after three fights is already ranked as the No. 5 contender.

Zalal, 29, has won his past eight fights and has been steadily improving as he continues to face tougher and tougher competition.

The pair headline a 13-bout card Saturday in Nevada that also features a pivotal matchup in the women’s bantamweight division.

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Zalal has risen to No. 7 in the featherweight contender rankings and enters his matchup with Sterling as a slight betting favourite despite Sterling’s advantage in experience and strength of schedule.

The Moroccan fighter has closed as the betting favourite in his past five UFC wins, while the former champ from New York lost the last time he was the listed underdog (a close decision to Movsar Evloev in December 2024).

Both fighters successfully made weight Friday with Sterling weighing 146 pounds and Zalal 145.5 pounds to make their non-title matchup official.

The penultimate bout on the card is Brazil’s Norma Dumont taking on Panama’s Joselyne Edwards in the organization’s other 135-pound division.

Dumont, 35, has won six in a row, is the No. 3 women’s bantamweight contender and a more than two-to-one favourite over No. 11-ranked Edwards, who is on a four-fight winning streak of her own.

  • UFC on Sportsnet

    Featherweight contenders Aljamain Sterling and Youssef Zalal headline a card at the Meta Apex. Watch UFC Fight Night action on Saturday, April 25 on Sportsnet 360 and Sportsnet+ with coverage beginning at 6 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. PT.

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Our UFC panel got back on track with their Cage Locks parlay last week at UFC Winnipeg and looks to stay hot.

Below is the projected bout order for UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal (subject to change)…

— Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal

— Norma Dumont vs. Joselyne Edwards

— Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez

— Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti

— Montel Jackson vs. Raoni Barcelos

— Marcus Buchecha vs. Ryan Spann

— Rodolfo Vieira vs. Eric McConico

— Jackson McVey vs. Sedriques Dumas

— Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Michelle Montague

— Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden

— Francis Marshall vs. Lucas Brennan

— Max Griffin vs. Victor Valenzuela

— Talita Alencar vs. Julia Polastri

Ahead of each UFC event in 2026, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

Cage Lock: Spann vs. Buchecha ends inside the distance -600

Favourite: Montel Jackson -175

Underdog: Ryan Spann +125

Dart Throw: Lucas Brennan +450

Buchecha and Spann will both look to prioritize the finish and I do not expect both of them to have the gas tank to go the distance. I would be surprised if this fight gets to the third round. … Jackson seems to alternate from being overvalued to undervalued and, in this spot, I think that he is undervalued. … Spann is the more well-rounded martial artist and while Buchecha can be dangerous with his grappling, Spann is one of the better grapplers at heavyweight and I think that he finds a finish here. … Brennan was added to the card for a short notice assignment and I think that there is a lot of value on the Bellator MMA vet, who continues to improve each time out.

Cage Lock: Francis Marshall to win -588

Favourite: Alexander Hernandez -130

Underdog: Raoni Barcelos +150

Dart Throw: Bueno Silva by decision +500

It’s a short notice fight for both Marshall and Lucas Brennan which should benefit the more experienced fighter in this one. “Fire” Marshall has looked great in his last two bouts despite coming up on the losing end of close split decision versus Mairon Santos at UFC 313. He followed that up by making quick work of Erik Silva by submission and I expect a similar result this Saturday. Rather than locking into a finish, Marshall to win outright is the safest play on the card in my opinion.

Alexander Hernandez has taken his game to another level in the last year and is coming off back-to-back KO wins with devasting right crosses. His opponent Rafa Garcia also packs a punch but gives up a slight height and reach advantage to his opponent which could be pivotal if they decide to stand and trade for three rounds. You also have to go back almost four years to find the last time Hernandez has been knocked out. I’m not saying Garcia can’t do it, but recent history tells us Hernandez has the edge here. … At 38 years old I think Raoni Barcelos’s age is impacting the moneyline here. He has won four bouts in a row and is an accomplished mixed martial artist. Montel Jackson has looked like an absolute killer at times but a split decision loss to Deiveson Figueiredo has shown that he can be beaten, albeit barely. If Barcelos is able to avoid catching stray shots and get this to the mat, he may be able to grind out another decision victory or possibly snatch a limb in deep waters. … Mayra Bueno Silva is only two years removed from fighting for a title. Michelle Montague appears to be full value for a win and is coming off a decision over Luana Carolina in her UFC debut. But the secret’s out now, and Bueno Silva desperately needs this win to halt a four-fight losing streak. I expect “Sheetara” to call on all her experience here and grind out a victory by any means necessary.

Cage Lock: Michelle Montague to win -415

Favourite: Davey Grant -125

Underdog: Aljamain Sterling +140

Dart Throw: Joselyne Edwards by KO/TKO/DQ +1400

While I understand why Zalal is a small favourite here – he’s younger, taller and on quite the streak, he should have a speed and striking advantage on the feet – but Sterling is one of the true professionals in this sport. At featherweight, he has looked like a stronger and more refined version of the fighter who won the bantamweight title and picked up wins over Petr Yan, Henry Cejudo and he put Cory Sandhagen to sleep. The line has gotten closer as the week has progressed so I feel extra good about this number on a championship-level fighter who’s facing a much less experienced opponent.

Sure, Davey Grant is 40 and coming off a brutal stoppage loss to Charles Jourdain in October but he’s got a great chance to get back into the win column here against an opponent who’s relatively green in the sport by comparison. Grant has been in the UFC since 2013; Adrian Luna Martinetti made his amateur debut in 2016. Martinetti got into the UFC with a fun three-round win over Mark Vologdin on Dana White’s Contender Series six months ago but Vologdin is pure toughness and nowhere near the level of Grant or Grant’s opponents. Unless Grant’s durability is completely shot at this stage of his career, I see him having the skill edge in all areas. … Don’t love the lopsided odds on Michelle Montague but she is ascending and Bueno Silva hasn’t won a fight in three years. It’s an unfriendly style matchup for Bueno Silva who has lost four in a row. … Have been impressed with Joselyne Edwards on her current hot streak. Dumont likes to strikes and although her defence is solid early, I could see Edwards landing some big shots throughout the bout and hurting Dumont. It’s more interesting for the division if Dumont wins but I think Edwards is a live dog and a threat to make a big statement in the Apex.

Three legs: Spann vs. Buchecha ends inside distance + Marshall + Montague

Parlay odds: -144 (to win: $69.40)

2026 STANDINGS AFTER 12 EVENTS

2026 winnings: -$441.04 (on $100 bets)

AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS (21-27, -4.43 units)

Cage Lock: 6-6 (-$479.94)

Favourite: 8-4 (+$56.10)

DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS (25-23, +3.84 units)

Cage Lock: 11-1 (+$79.03)

Dart throw: 2-10 (+$550)

MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS (19-28-1, -16.13 units)

Cage Lock: 10-2 (+$44.10)

Favourite: 6-6 (-$187.56)

Dart throw: 0-12 (-$1,200)

Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)

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