The ATP Masters 1000 Madrid second round on April 25 features several matchups where underdogs could offer value. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer’s strong run gives him a chance to stay competitive, Fabian Marozsan could exploit Daniil Medvedev’s discomfort on clay, while Alexander Bublik’s playing style may give him the edge against an out-of-form Stefanos Tsitsipas.
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid 1/32-Finals
Budkov Kjaer – Shapovalov: 25.04.2026 17:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer has won three of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, the Norwegian qualified for the main draw of the tournament. In the opening main draw round, Opelka retired in the opening set against Budkov Kjaer.
Denis Shapovalov has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Munich, Shapovalov lost to Molcan in the quarterfinals in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Budkov Kjaer is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He dominated in all three matches this week in Madrid. On the other hand, Shapovalov rarely succeeded on clay. We expect Budkov Kjaer to keep this match close.
That being said, Budkov Kjaer covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer +2.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365
Medvedev – Marozsan: 25.04.2026 19:00 CEST
H2H: 3-0
Daniil Medvedev has lost three of his last five matches. The last match he played was in Monte Carlo, where he lost to Berrettini in the opening match in straight sets.
Fabian Marozsan has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Munich, Marozsan lost to Shapovalov in the second round in straight sets. This week in Madrid, the Hungarian defeated Quinn in the opening round in two tiebreaks. He served well, offering and saving only one breakpoint.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Marozsan is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Berrettini demolished him 6-0, 6-0 in the opening match. The Russian hates playing on clay. We expect Marozsan to keep this match close if he serves well.
That being said, Marozsan covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Fabian Marozsan +2.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Bublik – Tsitsipas: 25.04.2026 21:30 CEST
H2H: 0-2
Alexander Bublik has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Munich, Bublik lost to Molcan in the opening match in straight sets. Last season in Madrid, Bublik lost to Mensik in the fourth round in straight sets.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Munich, Tsitsipas lost to Marozsan in the opening round in three sets. He is in terrible form and currently ranked outside the top 70. This week in Madrid, the Greek defeated Kypson in three tight sets after playing for almost three hours.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Bublik is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Tsitsipas struggled against Kypson in the opening round. On the other hand, Bublik enjoys playing on fast clay courts. If he serves well and stays focused, we expect him to win.
That being said, Bublik winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alexander Bublik winning @1.62 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images
