Multiple Authors
All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Wednesday’s top batter prop bets
Roman Anthony | OVER 0.5 HR (+690)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.84 EV
Kyle Tucker | OVER 0.5 HR (+565)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.31 EV
Adolis Garcia | OVER 0.5 RBI (+226)
Projection: 34% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.72 EV
Will Benson | UNDER 0.5 H (+142)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.37 EV
Carlos Cortes | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+118)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.60 EV
Wednesday’s top pitcher prop bets
David Peterson | OVER 5.5 K (+118)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $31.21 EV
Tarik Skubal | UNDER 6.5 K (-121)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.14 EV
Taj Bradley | UNDER 2.5 ER (-133)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.23 EV
Chris Bassitt | OVER 4.5 K (+118)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.65 EV
Brandon Williamson | OVER 4.5 K (+127)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.62 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
PITCHER
MONEY
LINE
PROJ.
WIN%
VALUE %
RUN
LINE
OV
VALUE %
GAME
TOTAL
O/U
xRUNS
VALUE %
Drew Rasmussen
+100
45.7
-8.06
+1.0
-163
-8.24
7.0
O +100
7.68
6.22
Gavin Williams
-120
54.3
-0.95
-1.0
+124
-3.39
U -120
-14.04
Yusei Kikuchi
-126
55.1
-0.45
-1.0
-101
-2.17
8.5
O -115
9.33
-3.74
Erick Fedde
+104
44.9
-9.22
+1.0
-128
-9.44
U -105
-5.29
George Kirby
-131
48.5
-14.27
-1.0
-106
-19.06
7.5
O -116
8.74
2.67
Taj Bradley
+109
51.5
7.38
+1.0
-122
6.18
U -104
-12.01
Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz
-120
55.5
2.69
-1.0
+104
1.02
8.5
O -115
9.01
-8.60
Nathan Eovaldi
+100
44.5
-12.02
+1.0
-135
-12.13
U -105
-0.21
Brayan Bello
+113
49.0
4.37
+1.0
-140
0.90
8.5
O -102
9.29
1.40
Eric Lauer
-136
51.1
-11.50
-1.0
+108
-14.43
U -118
-9.84
Sandy Alcantara
+189
27.5
-24.63
+1.5
-115
-27.24
8.0
O -115
9.93
15.58
Tyler Glasnow
-232
72.5
5.78
-1.5
-105
19.25
U -105
-25.46
Jameson Taillon
-115
55.0
3.37
-1.0
+109
2.74
9.0
O -105
9.68
-4.33
Matt Waldron
-105
45.0
-12.71
+1.0
-142
-13.36
U -115
-4.65
Peter Lambert
+104
46.3
-5.73
+1.0
-146
-6.01
9.0
O -102
9.24
-10.70
Chris Bassitt
-126
53.7
-3.52
-1.0
+112
-6.25
U -118
1.44
Tomoyuki Sugano
+123
33.9
-26.97
+1.0
-117
-28.17
9.5
O +100
10.37
-1.94
Brandon Williamson
-149
66.1
12.38
-1.0
-111
16.47
U -120
-6.56
Andre Pallante
+129
44.2
0.94
+1.0
-119
-0.77
8.5
O -112
8.58
-14.08
Bubba Chandler
-156
55.9
-8.23
-1.0
-109
-11.64
U -108
5.17
Logan Webb
+129
38.9
-11.26
+1.0
-125
-12.75
7.0
O -112
7.65
0.17
Cristopher Sanchez
-156
61.1
0.51
-1.0
-104
1.08
U -108
-9.33
Cade Cavalli
+139
35.2
-16.59
+1.0
-112
-16.77
7.5
O -115
7.40
-17.51
David Peterson
-168
64.8
3.85
-1.0
-116
4.33
U -105
9.10
Tarik Skubal
-149
56.5
-5.08
-1.0
-120
-7.14
8.0
O -112
9.50
8.93
JR Ritchie
+123
43.6
-3.66
+1.0
-108
-4.96
U -108
-18.24
Eduardo Rodriguez
+104
47.6
-2.59
+1.0
-146
-2.39
8.5
O -115
8.76
-12.58
Brandon Sproat
-126
52.4
-6.28
-1.0
+112
-10.81
U -105
3.94
Michael Wacha
+100
45.8
-9.64
+1.0
-150
-11.30
10.0
O -110
10.79
-5.35
Luis Severino
-120
54.2
0.50
-1.0
+115
0.58
U -110
-3.74
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last season’s play.
Tampa Bay Rays Run Line:
The Rays are in the middle of a six-game winning streak. (+8.15 Units / 107% ROI). Current odds: 1 @ -163
Athletics 1st 5 innings (F5) Moneyline:
The Athletics have won this bet in five straight games. (+5.90 Units / 113% ROI). Current odds: -115
Atlanta Braves Team Total OVER:
Atlanta has hit this over in six consecutive home games. (+6.05 Units / 88% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -105
St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline:
The Cardinals have gone 8-2 in their last 10 road games. (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI). Current odds: +129
