The 2026 Kentucky Derby odds say Bob Baffert’s horses won’t win. But Potente appears to have the most potential to claim another Baffert victory.
Top Kentucky Derby horses and a surprising long shot
Which horse could win the Kentucky Derby? From favorites to a Japan-based long shot, here are the names to watch.
- Trainer Bob Baffert has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby, including the longshot contender Potente.
- Potente is considered a value pick by experts due to Baffert’s track record and the horse’s strong pedigree.
- The colt’s inexperience and a late fade in the Santa Anita Derby are potential concerns for handicappers.
- Potente’s morning line odds were 24-1 for the 2026 Kentucky Derby.
Editor’s note: Follow coverage of the 2026 Kentucky Derby throughout the day.
Bob Baffert is usually one of the star attractions at the Kentucky Derby. He’s the trainer of a record-tying six horses to have won the Run for the Roses, including two of the 13 Triple Crown winners in the history of the sport. Last year, he was back at Churchill Downs for the first time since a three-year suspension when 2021 Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit failed a post-race drug test.
In 2026, however, Baffert is floating under the radar around the stables ahead of the Kentucky Derby, or at least as under-the-radar as one of the biggest figures in horse racing can be around the track. Baffert has two horses in the field at the 2026 Kentucky Derby, and neither are considered top contenders by oddsmakers and handicappers heading into the race on May 2.
How they perform will nonetheless loom large with Baffert on the verge of Kentucky Derby history if he makes another trip to the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs. Potente appears to have the most potential of Baffert’s two entries, and he’s among the more intriguing horses this week for bettors looking at value plays at the 2026 Run for the Roses.
Why Kentucky Derby experts like Potente as longshot pick
It’s just not usual to see a Baffert-trained horse at this value ahead of a Triple Crown race. Potente had 24-1 morning line odds for the 2026 Kentucky Derby as of Thursday afternoon, with nine of the 20 horses in the field listed with better odds to win.
In addition to Baffert’s exceptional track record at the Kentucky Derby, Potente has strong pedigree in relation to the track at Churchill Downs. He was sired by Into Mischief, the horse that has sired three Kentucky Derby winners this decade, including Sovereignty in 2025. Potente also has ties to 1998 Breeders Cup Classic winner Awesome Again.
The 3-year-old colt sold at auction for $2.4 million, more than any horse in the 2026 Kentucky Derby field. Potente also had a strong workout at Churchill Downs last weekend, according to multiple reports, going five furlongs in 57.80 seconds.
“It’s impossible to knock the pedigree of Potente as far as the Kentucky Derby is concerned,” wrote TwinSpires.com. “He’s bred to relish racing 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May.”
Potente won the first two races he entered at Santa Anita Park, beginning with his maiden race on Jan. 31 and then the San Felipe Grade 2 stakes race in March at 1 1/16 mile. Potente finished second to So Happy at the Santa Anita Derby on April in his only other race and led much of the way before fading down the stretch.
“It was a good, tough race for him. He needed that,” Baffert told reporters this week.
“With a more passive strategy early,” wrote Betting Pros, “this horse could be in the mix late.”
“Speed figures across the board have rated the Santa Anita Derby as one of the fastest prep races this season, which makes Potente a live longshot,” added CBS Sports. “… Baffert says that Potente is better when he’s not setting the pace, and he’s not likely to set the pace on Saturday with Six Speed and Litmus Test in the field.”
Potente “is also showing steady progression on multiple speed figure scales,” Fanduel Racing noted, “meaning if he takes another step forward, he can be fast enough to be in the mix.”
Why Potente is a Kentucky Derby sleeper
Potente’s longshot odds are due to his relative inexperience with only three career races, as well as his performance down the stretch at the Santa Anita Derby.
Racing on a 1 1/8-mile track, which is shorter than the 1 1/4-mile Derby at Churchill Downs, Potente faded late against a field not nearly as strong as the one he’ll be up against in a Triple Crown race. Kentucky Derby handicappers have marked that as a potential “red flag” leading up to Saturday’s Run for the Roses.
“He has enough speed to be on the lead if asked, but that doesn’t appear to be where he’s most effective,” Racing Dudes wrote about Potente. “He’s better when sitting just off the front and making his move turning for home. That tactical style can be dangerous in a race like the Derby, especially if the pace isn’t overly contested, but the big question is whether he has the finishing punch to hold off deeper closers in the final furlong against this level of competition.”
When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby?
The 2026 Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday, May 2, with broadcast coverage from Churchill Downs beginning at 2:30 p.m. ET. Post time for the Triple Crown race is scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET.
Kentucky Derby live odds for 2026 field
Here’s a look at the current odds for all the favorites and long shots in the field at the 2026 Kentucky Derby:
Odds as of 3 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 30, according to kentuckyderby.com.
- Renegade (5-1)
- So Happy (6-1)
- Commandment (7-1)
- Further Ado (7-1)
- The Puma (8-1)
- Chief Wallabee (10-1)
- Emerging Market (11-1)
- Danon Bourbon (14-1)
- Wonder Dean (20-1)
- Fulleffort (19-1) (scratched)
- Potente (24-1)
- Right to Party (26-1)
- Incredibolt (27-1)
- Great White (33-1)
- Litmus Test (35-1)
- Silent Tactic (38-1) (scratched)
- Golden Tempo (40-1)
- Six Speed (41-1)
- Albus (50-1)
- Pavlovian (51-1)
- Ocelli (50-1)
- Intrepido (57-1)
KENTUCKY DERBY TICKETS: How much will it cost to watch the 2026 Run for the Roses?
Kentucky Derby 2026: TV, streaming and where to watch
- Date: Saturday, May 2
- Coverage starts: 2:30 p.m. ET
- Post time: 6:57 p.m. ET
- TV: NBC
- Stream: Peacock
- Location: Churchill Downs (Louisville, Kentucky)
Watch the Kentucky Derby with Peacock
