Top Kentucky Derby horses and a surprising long shot
Which horse could win the Kentucky Derby? From favorites to a Japan-based long shot, here are the names to watch.
Editor’s note: Follow coverage of the 2026 Kentucky Derby throughout the day.
The horse that went off as a 38-1 long shot for his racing debut suddenly is the co-favorite for the 152nd Kentucky Derby.
The 3-year-old bay colt, So Happy, is 5-1 along with co-favorite Commandment. About a week ago, shortly after arriving at Churchill Downs in Louisville from California, his early odds were 15-1.
So how did the horse trained by Mark Glatt and ridden by Mike Smith make the improbable ascent?
Like a lot of humans, it turns out So Happy is not at his best in the morning. Or, more specifically, he’s unimpressive during morning workouts. And those workout times are available to the bettors.
“He’s never been a horse that’s flashy in the morning,’’ Smith, the Hall-of-Fame jockey, told USA TODAY Sports before the Kentucky Derby. “He just seems to do what he has to do.’’
In addition to the pedestrian workouts, So Happy’s sire, Runhappy, had underperformed as a stallion. So Happy sold for just $20,000 as a yearling before Glatt bought him for $150,000 and sold him to two of his clients, Ana and Hans Maron. Norman Stables has also bought a share of the horse.
On Nov. 22, 2025, at post time of So Happy’s racing debut – a 6 ½ furlong Maiden Special Weight race at Del Mar racetrack in Southern California – bettors sent him off at 38-1. Likely based in part on more underwhelming morning workouts
“He kind of likes his company,’’ Smith said, referring to a horse another is paired with during a morning workout. “He doesn’t blow him away or open up on his company, even though he can. He just never has been that kind of horse. That’s why I think he paid so much because there was another horse that he was working with.”
That horse was Vivo.
So Happy looked lackluster against Vivo during workouts. But on race day, So Happy beat him by 10 lengths and won the race by 3/4s of a length.
“When I told him to go, man, he went,’’ Smith said of the ride. “And I couldn’t believe that because he’s so laid back in the morning.’’
Ever since, So Happy has been off to the races.
A story of heartbreak
Mark Glatt, a 53-year-old accomplished trainer from California, has the first Kentucky Derby horse of his career. So Happy clinched the spot with a victory in the Santa Anita Derby less than eight weeks after Glatt’s wife, Dena, died of heart failure.
Glatt now wears a bracelet with some of his wife’s ashes inside of it.
“That way I always have her with me,’’ he told USA TODAY Sports.
Jockey aims to break record
Bill Shoemaker, the late Hall of Fame jockey who was 54 when he rode Ferdinand to victory at the 1986 Kentucky Derby, remains the oldest winning jockey in the race’s history. Smith would break that record if he wins aboard So Happy at age 59.
“It might be a record that sticks for a while, man,” Smith said. “These young guys are catching all my other ones. This is one that’d be tough to get.”
Of course, So Happy will have to carry Smith across the finish line.
“I think we’re just starting to see the best him,’’ he said.
