Golf betting tips: Turkish Open final round
1.5pts Ugo Coussaud to win the Turkish Airlines Open at 11/1 (General)
1.5pts win Guido Migliozzi to win the Turkish Airlines Open 12/1 (General)
1pt Coussaud and Migliozzi to win their three-balls at 13/2 (bet365, BOYLE Sports)
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While at the time of writing Cameron Young looks set to produce a commanding victory at Doral, potentially removing all intrigue in surely the low point of Signature Events so far, we have ourselves a Sunday on the DP World Tour. There are three players within five of Young’s halfway lead in the Cadillac Championship. In Turkey, just six shots cover the top 40 on the leaderboard.
What’s particularly fun about it is that the joint leaders, Daniel Rodrigues and Mikael Lindberg, are very different golfers. There is absolutely no doubt that this course has proven to be more Rodrigues than Lindberg – that is to say more fairways and greens than attack through power – yet one of the handful of players who can match Lindberg’s length is Rocco Repetto Taylor, and he’s one shot behind in a share of third.
My pre-tournament analysis was ultimately wrong, but the presence of Repetto Taylor and Lindberg does leave me frustrated that David Puig hasn’t holed putts in the way he usually does. The Spaniard is four behind and that means you’ve a chance, but having 16 players to pass is a big problem. Nobody on three-under is more likely but we’ll need a heck of a lot of fortune to win from there, and certainly a putt or two.
The leaderboard does have a lovely look to it from a betting perspective. Yes, there are a dozen or more viable champions, but the final group features three maidens, one of whom is a talented rookie, but a rookie nonetheless. Lindberg has all the ability but has looked decidedly sketchy in positions like this at times, including in a lower grade, so perhaps the pick is UGO COUSSAUD.
This 33-year-old Frenchman is a rock-solid operator who has won on the HotelPlanner Tour and generally held firm when in the mix on this one, while the fact he’s recovered from an opening 74 shows how well he’s played since. He came here on the back of third place in India and 17th in China before that, while sixth place in Bahrain came at a course, like the one in India, where you have to manage your mistakes.
That’s certainly true here in Turkey and with echoes of Club de Campo, where he was fifth last year, and Wentworth where he was seventh in 2024, it’s not a surprise to see his name towards the top of this leaderboard. From one behind his playing partners I’m not sure he should be as much as three-times the price in places, as his overall body of work at this level is the strongest of the trio.
Rodrigues is a player I have written about in several other previews including a look at the Q-School graduates. He’s justified the intrigue and having been a very good amateur, it’s impressive how quickly he’s taken to life as a professional. There are some echoes of Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen and while not quite as promising, already he looks good enough to win at what looks a very suitable golf course.
Still, the final group is a tough place to be and when grouped with Neergaard-Petersen when last out in round three of the Australian Open back in December, he couldn’t find a single birdie. Better has to be expected and this is a less prestigious tournament, but 9/2 on such a stacked leaderboard is no gift. I’d actually argue he’s no more likely to win this than Coussaud and a couple more who begin the round just one behind.
Of those, Wenyi Ding was the one who made my pre-tournament shortlist and having been on him last time at half the price he was in Turkey, victory for the Chinese youngster would sting. However, his iron play was the snag and it remains a bit of a concern so with the market giving him plenty of respect, he’s overlooked in favour of GUIDO MIGLIOZZI.
This multiple DP World Tour winner dropped a bit of a hint last time out and has stepped up thanks to some excellent approach work. Waywardness off the tee is his weakness but these tight, tree-lined courses seem to help, as he’s won in Kenya and Belgium and was in the mix in Paris late last year. He’s won the Open de France at Le Golf National, too, and that requires pragmatism at a less-than-driver course.
Providing he can stay out of trouble, the player with a major top-five to his name should prove a big threat and I can’t fathom why he’d be chalked up at the same price as his compatriot Gregorio de Leo in this situation. The latter holed an 80-foot eagle putt in round three but made no other forward steps from the final group and while winning is sometimes overvalued, I don’t think experience in contention is.
Migliozzi has it in spades and on a wide-open Sunday, dutching him and Coussaud, one of the best maidens on the circuit, gives us an 11/2 shot with as good a chance as anyone else in my book.
Posted at 15:50 BST on 02/05/26
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