Breaking down Blackhawks’ odds entering NHL Draft Lottery: Shot at Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg on the line
By this point, Blackhawks general manager Kyle Davidson probably has memorized the draft-lottery odds for the NHL’s 31st-place team. This is the third straight year the Hawks are in that spot with those odds as they head into the lottery at 6 p.m. Tuesday.
They have a 13.5% chance of getting the No. 1 overall pick, a 14.1% chance of getting No. 2, a 30.7% chance of getting No. 3 and a 41.7% chance of getting No. 4 — the furthest they could fall. After landing the No. 1 pick in 2023, they picked No. 2 in 2024 and No. 3 in 2025 — a pattern they obviously hope doesn’t continue, even if it’s all blind luck.
The last-place Canucks have the highest odds (25.5%) of receiving the top selection, while the Rangers (11.5%), Flames (9.5%) and Maple Leafs (8.5%) round out the rest of the top five. The stakes are particularly high for the Leafs because if they fall out of the top five (a 56.2% probability), they’ll forfeit their pick to the Bruins.
Last year’s draft lottery was full of surprises, with the Islanders — 10th from last place — landing the top pick with 3.5% odds and the Mammoth — 14th from last — landing the second pick with 3.1% odds. So anything can happen.
For the Hawks, what’s at stake is the chance to draft one of the consensus top-two players, forward Gavin McKenna or forward Ivar Stenberg, either of whom is likely to develop into a stellar addition to the top six.
If the Hawks slip outside the top two and neither McKenna nor Stenberg falls, they would have to choose between one of several acclaimed defensemen — Keaton Verhoeff, Chase Reid, Carson Carels and Alberts Smits — or fast-rising forward Caleb Malhotra. Every option will be analyzed extensively over the next seven weeks leading up to the draft, particularly at the draft combine June 6.
The Hawks would have had more to think about in the first round this year if not for the Panthers’ unexpectedly disastrous, injury-riddled season. By finishing 40-38-4 (eighth-worst), they activated the top-10 protection attached to the first-round pick they traded to the Hawks in March 2025, along with goalie Spencer Knight, for defenseman Seth Jones. They’ll now keep that pick, giving the Hawks their 2027 first-round pick instead.
Panthers general manager Bill Zito must be thrilled he attached top-10 protection and not top-five, as the Leafs did with the Bruins. The Panthers’ top-10 protection clause wasn’t publicly discovered until February, creating consternation among Hawks fans, but the teams were aware of it all along.
The Panthers enter Tuesday with a 12.4% chance of jumping into the top three. They can’t fall any lower than 10th. They conceivably could trade the pick again, taking advantage of its greater-than-expected value.
Barring any additional trades, the Hawks are slated to make only one first-round pick for the first time since 2021. They have three picks in the second round.
They already have three first-round picks for 2027: their own, the Panthers’ and the Oilers’, which the Hawks received for pending free agents Connor Murphy and Jason Dickinson in March as the Oilers prepared for a playoff run that ended with their first-round elimination last week. Davidson could use those three first-round picks as trade chips of his own a year from now.
NOTE: Negotiations between the Hawks and prospect Roman Kantserov are likely to begin soon after the 21-year-old forward’s playoff run in Russia ended Sunday. His contract with his Russian club, Metallurg Magnitogorsk, expires May 31.
Rinzel’s first full NHL season didn’t live up to his expectations, but that’s forgivable considering he hasn’t reached his physical peak yet.
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The Hawks would likely need to improve by 20-plus points next season to squeak into the postseason, although optimism is valuable in itself.
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The Hawks’ youngsters will see each other and train together frequently during the summer.
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