Bob Baffert has never been the villain in a post-Kentucky Derby Triple Crown story.
The Hall of Fame trainer had three Triple Crown bids spoiled in 1997 (Silver Charm), 1998 (Real Quiet) and 2002 (War Emblem) before sweeping the series in 2015 with American Pharoah and 2018 with Justify. Sure, he beat Kentucky Derby winners Monarchos and Super Saver in 2001 with Point Given and 2010 with Lookin At Lucky, respectively, but those two Preakness winners had been the Kentucky Derby favorites.
This year, Baffert has as many as three potential starters for the Preakness on May 16 at Laurel Park, led by Pat Day Mile (G2) winner Crude Velocity and supported by Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up and Kentucky Derby also-ran Potente and maiden winner Cherokee Nation.
Crude Velocity is unquestionably the biggest threat to derail Golden Tempo’s Triple Crown bid should the Derby winner’s connections opt to contest the Preakness. Believers in Crude Velocity’s talent want nothing more than trainer Cherie DeVaux to commit to the Preakness as it would unquestionably help the price on a horse some think might be the best in the crop.
Without Golden Tempo, Crude Velocity could go as low as odds-on. He would be a certain underlay in that situation because of the presence of Taj Mahal, the Tesio Stakes winner who has gotten good figures relative to this group and is likely to be undervalued with or without Golden Tempo participating.
As for Golden Tempo’s value proposition, it is rare that the Derby winner is playable in the Preakness, but the celebrity this year’s winner has gotten makes it especially unlikely. The good news for his backers is that there looks to be plenty of pace signed on for this year’s Preakness, so that shouldn’t be an excuse.
No one else really excites me yet. Either Golden Tempo is in the race and Crude Velocity becomes the likely play or Golden Tempo is not and Taj Mahal is the probable value. If neither Golden Tempo nor Crude Velocity run, then I still think there will be opportunity on Taj Mahal.
Horse
Trainer
Ed’s fair odds
Cherokee Nation
Bob Baffert
15-1
Chip Honcho
Steve Asmussen
15-1
Crude Velocity
Bob Baffert
3-1
Crupper
Donnie Von Hemel
125-1
Express Kid
Justin Evans
50-1
Golden Tempo
Cherie DeVaux
8-1
Great White
John Ennis
125-1
Iron Honor
Chad Brown
12-1
Napoleon Solo
Chad Summers
50-1
Potente
Bob Baffert
10-1
Pretty Boy Miah
Jeremiah Engelhart
39-1
Silent Tactic
Mark Casse
27-1
Taj Mahal
Brittany Russell
8-1
Talk to Me Jimmy
Rudy Rodriguez
30-1
Talkin
Danny Gargan
40-1
The Hell We Did
Todd Fincher
50-1
