Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday’s Sonego-Buse men’s singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives Buse a 57% chance of defeating Sonego at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Buse has a 54% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Sonego (+2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Ignacio Buse odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
Bet Type
Sonego
Buse
Moneyline
+146
-166
First Set
+130
-164
Game Spread
+2.5 (-112)
-2.5 (-118)
Total Games
o22.5 (-112)
u22.5 (-118)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sonego vs. Buse picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
Bet Type
Pick
Bet Now
Moneyline
Sonego
+146
First Set
Buse
-118
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 22.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sonego vs. Buse updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Lorenzo Sonego and Ignacio Buse is scheduled to start on Thursday at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Lorenzo Sonego vs. Ignacio Buse
- Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026
- Approx. Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men’s Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Ignacio Buse, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat Lorenzo Sonego at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
