North Jersey could see repeated showers and thunderstorms through Aug. 3, bringing heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding.
Rain chances will increase in the afternoon on Aug. 2, but the better chance for thunderstorms will come at night and throughout the day on Aug. 3, said Brian Ciemnecki, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in New York.
“The main threat with this rain is going to be the potential for flooding,” Ciemnecki said.
About three-quarters of an inch is expected across the region, although thunderstorms and heavy downpours could produce higher totals in some areas.
The forecast applies to the entire North Jersey region, which faces a complex weather system with both a warm front and a cold front. That will keep the region cloudy and be hard to predict, Ciemnecki said. Forecasters were uncertain where the heaviest rain will fall.
There’s a slight risk of excessive rainfall on Aug. 3, a Level 2 on the Weather Prediction Center’s four-level scale. That means forecasters will be on the lookout for scattered flash flooding. Residents in places that flood should watch for future alerts.
“If they are in an area that’s prone to flooding, they should certainly be weather aware and be cognizant that heavy rain could lead to flooding,” Ciemnecki said.
Thunderstorms are most likely in the afternoon on Aug. 3, he said.
“We have to watch where these heavy rain bands set up, if they even set up over northern New Jersey,” Ciemnecki said.
That uncertainty means one town could see heavy rainfall while a nearby community sees much less. There’s currently no need to change plans, but residents should check conditions before heading out into rapidly changing weather.
While tornadoes and heavy wind gusts aren’t expected to be a widespread problem, a severe thunderstorm could produce damaging gusts.
“You could get wind gusts as much as 60 miles an hour in some of the strongest storms. But It’s not the primary threat with this event. The primary threat’s going to be the potential for flooding,” Ciemnecki said.
The rain should slow in the evening on Aug. 3. Drier conditions are expected on Aug. 4. Rain will pick up again mid-week.
High temperatures will remain in the low to mid-80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s because of the cloud cover.
