Baseball’s march to a likely lockout is underway.
Representatives from the commissioner’s office at Major League Baseball and their counterparts at the Players Association met Tuesday in New York City to start what’s expected to be a lengthy negotiation process en route to a new labor deal, a person briefed on the negotiations who was not authorized to speak publicly said.
This first meeting was not for formal proposals, but rather opening presentations. The players and owners were expected to lay out their view of the sport’s current operation. In subsequent meetings, the parties will make formal proposals on economics and other issues.
MLB and the MLBPA could not immediately be reached for comment.
The league is expected to propose a salary cap and salary floor, changes that owners will frame as a means of improving competitive balance. Players in the past have vehemently fought against a cap-and-floor system for a variety of reasons, many of them economic. If both sides now dig in, the ensuing fight could threaten the 2027 season.
The current collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1, and if a new deal isn’t in place by then, owners are likely to lock out the players, just as they did five years ago. But the likelihood of a deal by December seems low.
The more salient question is whether a contract will be reached in time to preserve a full season in 2027, which was the case the last time. During the 2021-22 lockout, the sides reached an agreement on March 10, 2022.
The lockout is an existential predicament for the industry because in many ways, baseball is enjoying a renaissance. Revenues eclipsed $12 billion for the 2024 season. Rule changes, including a pitch clock, have helped increase baseball’s popularity, and the superstardom of Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers has commanded worldwide attention.
But with a payroll above $400 million, those Dodgers also are flexing their financial might via free agency the way the New York Yankees did at the turn of the century under George Steinbrenner, and smaller-market owners and fans complain about an uneven playing field.
Baseball owners also have not seen their franchise values rise as quickly as the owners in leagues with capped labor costs, such as the NBA, NFL and NHL. At the same time, baseball franchises nonetheless continue to appreciate in worth. The league has new national media deals to negotiate for 2029 — contracts that MLB will not maximize if fans turn away from the sport because of a lengthy stoppage.
The entertainment landscape is more crowded than ever, giving both sides great incentive to reach a deal. And for a long time, they’ve found a way to do just that.
Players and owners fought bitterly about how many games should be played during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, settling on 60 games. But otherwise, labor disputes haven’t otherwise contributed to cancellations in the sport since the 1994-95 strike. That stoppage lasted 232 days and cost the sport the ‘94 World Series, a damaging progression of events.
The owners’ push for a cap was at the center of that fight too.
“It’s not new,” Bruce Meyer, the interim head of the players’ union, said in February. “Obviously they tried in 1994, but there are other times where they tried to get a cap-type system or limit salaries. So this is something they’ve always wanted.
“Our union historically has been against it and it’s because we believe it’s quite simply not good for players. That position is not going to change. But whatever they propose, I mean, we have a legal obligation to consider and analyze and present to our players and give our recommendations. But the short answer is, we are preparing for a concerted push on the other side for a salary cap, and we’re ready for it, and our players are ready for it.”
The sides will project strength throughout the bargaining process, but both the players’ and owners’ willingness to miss games won’t be fully tested until the spring of 2027. March is likely the final month a deal could be reached without shortening or significantly pushing back that year’s competition schedule.
A baseball CBA typically covers five seasons of play. Talks are expected to take place throughout the summer, but movement might not be significant until the winter. Last go-around, the process was slow: the union made its first economic proposals in May, and the league its first in August.
They don’t appear to be racing out the door here, either: This round of negotiations is opening a little later than the last. In 2021, the sides made opening presentations in April.
MLB has not explicitly said it will propose a cap but commissioner Rob Manfred has made many references to major economic change.
“The strategy is to get directly to the players,” Manfred said last summer. “I don’t think the leadership of this union is anxious to lead the way to change. So we need to energize the workforce in order to get them familiar with or supportive of the idea that maybe change in the system could be good for everybody.”
The union, historically considered the strongest in sports, has gone through an uncomfortable stretch of turmoil that led to the ouster of its longtime executive director, Tony Clark, in the spring.
Bargaining begins with the specter of a federal investigation looming over the union. The Eastern District of New York last year began probing Clark and the MLBPA for their handling of union finances and assets. The owners could be inclined to see just how strong the union is in the wake of the leadership change.
If owners again institute a lockout in December, the sport’s roster-building activities would effectively cease operating: there would be no trades or signings until a contract is agreed to.
No games, either.
