Of the many important issues on the agenda when Trump and Xi meet in Beijing this week, among the most important is Taiwan.
The questions of whether China will attempt to take back the island, and what America and its allies could do to stop it, loom over the summit.
And they have grown only more urgent in recent months. In December, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted its “Justice Mission 2025” military drill, which choreographed a maritime blockade of the Taiwan Strait and the island’s key ports. That same month, the Trump administration announced an $11 billion arms deal with Taiwan, but it hasn’t been approved by Congress. And while Trump was emboldened by the audacious capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro in January, the president is now busy fighting a war with Iran.
We asked some experts on the power struggle between the U.S. and China to tell us how Trump and Xi might take on the fraught subject of Taiwan this week. Their responses were lightly edited for clarity and length.
—Tanner Nau
There Is No Real Deal to Make on Taiwan
By Peter Mattis
What is really stopping the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) from launching an invasion is the decision-making of Xi Jinping. It’s the only voice that matters. For the last 70 years, the PLA has been incapable of launching an effective invasion of Taiwan due to a lack of military capability. Today, while the PLA still may not have the ideal set of capabilities for launching a massive amphibious invasion and airborne air assault, could someone present Xi Jinping with a plan to make that happen? Yes.
