The CBO said the system “would not be an impenetrable shield or be able to fully counter a large attack that Russia or China might be able to launch.”
Anastasia Obis
May 12, 2026 4:42 pm
3 min read
A new analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Golden Dome missile defense architecture consistent with President Donald Trump’s executive order would cost roughly $1.2 trillion over the next two decades, far exceeding the White House’s $175 billion estimate.
While the new report provides Congress with one of the most detailed independent assessments yet of what a missile defense architecture based on the systems and capabilities outlined in the executive order could look like, the office said it is “impossible to estimate the long-term cost of the GDA system being contemplated by DoD” since the department has publicly provided limited details about the project’s architecture.
The CBO estimated that acquisition costs alone would total just over $1 trillion, with the space-based interceptor layer being the single most expensive component, which would account for roughly 70% of acquisition costs.
Last month, Space Force Gen. Michael Guetlein, Golden Dome’s program manager, told Congress that space-based interceptors, which are a particularly challenging aspect of Golden Dome, might not make it into the final design due to high costs.
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“I do believe that the technology exists to get after that threat today, and we believe we can solve it. What we do not know today is can we do it at scale and can we do it affordably,” Guetlein said during a House Armed Services subcommittee hearing on April 15. If the Defense Department cannot do it affordably, Guetlein said it will not move forward with production.
The system CBO evaluated would provide coverage of the entire United States, including Alaska and Hawaii, and would be able to fully engage an attack from a regional adversary with limited capabilities, such as North Korea. But that kind of system would be “overwhelmed by a full-scale attack mounted by a peer or near-peer adversary.”
“Although the notional national missile defense system analyzed by CBO would be far more capable than defenses the United States fields today, it would not be an impenetrable shield or be able to fully counter a large attack of the sort that Russia or China might be able to launch,” the CBO said.
“As a result, the strategic consequences of deploying an NMD system with the capacity considered here are unclear because they hinge on an adversary’s perception of the defense’s capability and how that adversary chose to respond. Such a deployment could prompt regional adversaries to increase their inventories of long-range missiles or to pursue more effective countermeasures to improve their chances of penetrating the NMD system,” it added.
While Trump said the Golden Dome would be nearly 100% effective and cost approximately $175 billion, Guetlein recently said the price tag would likely be around $185 billion.
The CBO said the difference between its estimate and the department’s projected price tag suggests that the Defense Department’s Golden Dome architecture is far more limited than the one outlined in Trump’s executive order, or that the Pentagon expects “significant funding from other accounts to contribute to the Golden Dome.”
“For example, procurement of interceptors might be funded directly through the services’ missile procurement accounts instead of the Golden Dome fund,” the CBO said.
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Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), who requested the CBO to provide a detailed cost estimate of the effort, said the Golden Dome is “nothing more than a massive giveaway to defense contractors paid for entirely by working Americans.”
“It will do little to advance American national security, while wasting at least $1.2 TRILLION of taxpayer dollars … I will continue to work with my colleagues in the Senate to prevent another dime from flowing to this racket,” Merkley said Tuesday.
Last year, Merkley urged Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth not to build the Golden Dome, arguing that it would “waste billions of taxpayer dollars, ignite a nuclear arms race, and aggravate corruption.”
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