The Cincinnati Reds (23-21) and the Cleveland Guardians (24-21) kick off a 3-game interleague series Friday at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze MLB odds around the Reds vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
2025 season series: Reds won 5-1
The Reds won 15-1 against the Washington Nationals Thursday as moderate favorites (-158) as the Over (7.5) cashed after losing the first 2 games of the series. LF JJ Bleday led the way going 3 for 6 with 2 homers and a career-high 6 RBIs. CF Dane Myers went 1 for 4 with a 3-run HR, while 2B-SS Matt McLain was 2 for 3 with a double, a 2-run HR, walk and 3 runs scored. The Over has cashed in 3 in a row, and 6 of the past 8 outings.
The Guardians doubled up the Angels 4-2 Wednesday as moderate favorites (-156) as the Under (7) cashed behind LHP Parker Messick (6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 7 K). CF-LF Angel Martinez went 1 for 4 with a solo homer and 2 runs scored. Cleveland has won 6 of its past 8 games, while the Over has a 4-3 edge in the previous 7 outings.
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Reds at Guardians projected starters
LHP Andrew Abbott vs. RHP Tanner Bibee
Abbott (2-2, 4.47 ERA) makes his 10th start of the 2026 season. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 46 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 5-0 home victory vs. Houston Astros Sunday
- 2026 away splits (3 starts): 0-0, 2.87 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 0 HR, 9 BB, 9 K, 1.60 WHIP
- 2025 vs. Guardians (2 starts): 2-0, 0.00 ERA (14 IP, 0 ER), 7 H, 4 BB, 10 K
- Career vs. Guardians (4 starts): 3-1, 2.11 ERA (21 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 1 HR, 4 BB, 16 K, 1.17 WHIP, 6.8 K/9
Bibee (0-5, 4.17 ERA) will also make his 10th start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 45 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 1 H (1 solo HR), 2 BB, 9 K in 2-1 home loss in 11 innings Saturday
- 2026 home splits (5 starts): 0-2, 1.63 ERA (27 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 2 HR, 11 BB, 26 K
- 2025 vs. Reds (1 start): Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER (5 R), 10 H (2 HR), 1 BB, 4 K in 5-4 road setback May 16, 2025
- Career vs. Reds (3 starts): 1-2, 4.42 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 4 HR, 4 BB, 22 K, 1.20 WHIP, 10.8 K/9
Reds at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:41 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Reds +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Guardians -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-200) | Guardians -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -102 | U: -118)
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Reds at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Guardians 4
The REDS (+115) are a solid play as slight underdogs in this Battle of Ohio interleague matchup.
Cincinnati dominated the series last season, winning 5 of 6 meetings. The Reds routed the Nationals last time out, while the Guardians completed the sweep of the Angels Wednesday. However, with the winless Bibee on the bump, let’s back Abbott and the Reds by a slight margin.
The Reds +1.5 (-200) will set you back 2 times your potential return, which is way too much risk. Even as part of a multi-leg parlay, it’s a little too expensive.
AVOID.
OVER 8 (-102) is the lean, but roll with a half-unit play at best.
The Over has cashed in 3 in a row for the Reds, while going 10-6 in the past 16 road outings.
For the Guardians, the Over has cashed in 4 of the past 7 games, while splitting 3-3 in the past 6 home outings, so tread lightly.
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