The Boston Red Sox (18-26) and Atlanta Braves (31-14) meet Friday for the second of a 3-game interleague series in Atlanta, Georgia. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze MLB odds around the Red Sox vs. Braves and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
2025 season series: Tied 3-3
The Braves picked up their MLB-leading 31st win Friday night, edging the Red Sox 3-2 in extra innings as -154 home favorites while the total stayed Under 7.5. RF Mike Yastrzemski delivered the game-winner with a leadoff RBI double in the 10th inning to score automatic runner SS Ha-Seong Kim. CF Michael Harris II and DH Drake Baldwin each added solo homers while SP Spencer Strider (5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K) looked sharp despite getting a no-decision.
The Red Sox lost for the fourth time in 5 games despite a decent outing from SP Connelly Early (5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 6 K, 2 HR) in a no-decision. 2B Marcelo Mayer provided the lone spark offensively with a solo HR, but Boston struggled to cash in on chances, finishing just 1 for 10 with runners in scoring position while leaving 7 men on base.
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Red Sox at Braves projected starters
LHP Payton Tolle vs. RHP Bryce Elder
Tolle (1-2, 1.99 ERA) makes his fifth start. He has a 0.84 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 22 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K (81 pitches) in 4-1 home loss vs. Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday
- Has never pitched against the Braves
- 2026 road splits: 1-1, 2.31 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.77 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 2 starts
Elder (4-1, 1.81 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 54 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 4 BB, 8 K (83 pitches) in 7-2 win at Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday
- Only start vs. Red Sox: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 K (81 pitches) in 3-1 home defeat June 1, 2025
- 2026 home splits: 2-0, 1.84 ERA (29 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 in 5 starts
Red Sox at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Braves -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-190) | Braves -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Red Sox at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Red Sox 2
PASS. I like the Braves (-135) to win but I’ll take the better odds on the run line.
BET BRAVES -1.5 (+155).
The Braves run line is the play on Saturday. Atlanta owns the best record in baseball at 31-14 and has been excellent at home with a 15-7 record. Boston, meanwhile, continues to battle injuries and just hasn’t looked like a very consistent team all season.
The biggest edge here is probably on the mound with Elder. He’s having a terrific bounce-back year, sitting at 4-1 with a 1.81 ERA, and hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in any start this season. He’s also coming off another scoreless outing and the Braves have won each of his last 2 starts.
Tolle has pitched OK overall, but the Red Sox have still dropped 3 of his last 4 starts. Add in Atlanta’s powerful lineup and how good the Braves have been at home, and this feels like a spot where they can win comfortably again Saturday night.
BET UNDER 8 (-115).
The Under feels like the move again with Edler’s dominant numbers. and the trends back the Under, too: the Under has cashed in 7 of the last 10 meetings, while both the Red Sox and Braves have hit the Under in 8 of their last 10 games.
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