LANSING, Mich. (WILX) – Monday and Tuesday are First Alert Weather days, with warm and muggy weather in Mid-Michigan creating the potential for gusty thunderstorms and possible flooding.
Stay up-to-date on our First Alert Weather page.
Potential for gusty thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall has prompted the two First Alert Weather Days, which are conditional in nature.
There is a lot of available energy in this warm and humid airmass for storms to flare up. First there is a developing storm complex out west that races in on Monday, then a powerful cold front that sweeps over the Great Lakes on Tuesday.
Monday’s Severe Threat
A group of storms that gets going Sunday night in the Plains states will survive into Monday and that is what works into Mid-Michigan tomorrow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will work over the area and try to tap into a large, unused pool of energy given the high humidity and daytime heating over Michigan early this week.
This is a scenario where little to no storms will occur if we are unable to break through the atmosphere’s strong instability cap, but we would end up with numerous strong to severe storms if we can break through. Stay tuned for updates over the next 24 hours.
Monday’s primary threats are heavy rain leading to localized flooding and strong wind gusts capable of producing mild to moderate damage. Large hail is also possible, with a small but non-zero tornado threat. The SPC has Mid-Michigan in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather.
Tuesday’s Severe Threat
Another warm and muggy day on Tuesday will be the last such one of the week. This is because a powerful cold front barrels into the area and provides the lift necessary for storm development. Storms are more likely and widespread on Tuesday compared to Monday, but whether or not we reach the same intensity is being tracked.
Tuesday’s storms will depend mainly on the timing of this front, which looks to give us storms in the middle to late afternoon and towards the early evening, too. The Storm Prediction Center has another Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather, with gusty winds, heavy rain and hail again the primary threats for Mid-Michigan.
Behind the Tuesday cold front, it will turn much cooler and drier with sunshine on Wednesday and Thursday.
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