Multiple Authors
ESPN’s basketball daily cheat sheet is your pregame destination before you lock in daily fantasy and betting decisions for that night’s games. Here you’ll find our top insights for the slate, including players to target for your daily fantasy rosters, along with game-by-game injury reports.
What you need to know for Sunday
Editor’s Picks
With only 15 teams in NBA history having ever erased a 3-1 playoff series deficit, the San Antonio Spurs have no intention of becoming the 16th. The Spurs host the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight at 8 p.m. ET with a chance to even the Western Conference Finals.
Health continues to be a factor in this series. The Thunder won’t have Ajay Mitchell due to a calf injury, while Jaylen Williams is questionable with a recurrent hamstring issue. The Spurs didn’t include Dylan Harper or De’Aaron Fox on the injury report, but the eye test from Game 3 suggests both are dealing with limiting injuries. The status of Williams and this Spurs duo will prove critical to this contest.
The onus is on the Spurs to adjust in multiple ways. The Thunder have found great success deploying Isaiah Hartenstein and additional bodies to keep Victor Wembanyama off the glass, pinning him to the baseline whenever possible. How can they get Wemby going on both sides of the ball? The core theme is a Spurs team running out of answers and bodies.
San Antonio also needs to figure out how to approach Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a player who becomes even more effective the more attention you afford him. The Spurs thrive with pace and chaos. The Thunder prefer methodical, half-court contests, allowing SGA to read and orchestrate. Whoever dictates the tempo dictates this game.
With an eye toward uncovering compelling betting angles and daily fantasy decisions, let’s take a look at the day ahead.
McCormick’s Bets for Sunday
Stephon Castle OVER 6.5 assists (-134)
Averaging 16 potential assists the past two games, Castle has taken on more on-ball playmaking duties given the injuries to his backcourt peers. As the premier downhill bully for the Spurs on offense, Castle’s ability to put pressure on the rim and kick to willing shooters could surface in the assist column.
Total points UNDER 218.5 (-110)
San Antonio hasn’t been able to spur chaos and transition freedom since Game 1, as the Thunder have successfully slowed recent games to the deliberate pace they prefer. The Thunder’s recent success from beyond the arc feels unsustainable, while the Spurs’ bench has been essentially non-functional. With the caliber of defenders in this series and with the onus on the Spurs to counter, this reads like a game where buckets are tougher to get.
Top Daily Fantasy Values of the Day
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$15,000+ Salaries
Victor Wembanyama, C, San Antonio Spurs ($19,200)
The price is steep, but we’re only a few games removed from 84 DraftKings points. It’s unlikely we see a repeat of Game 1’s epic numbers, but Wemby is also due for positive regression since some quiet lines the past two games. The Spurs need to free Wemby up to clean the glass and get the ball earlier in possessions on the block; motives that should show up in the box score.
$11,000-$14,900 Salaries
Stephon Castle, SG, San Antonio Spurs ($13,500)
The Spurs simply have less depth and fewer capable ball-handlers assuming at least one of Harper or Fox isn’t at full capacity tonight. This means more concentration of usage and touches for Castle, making him a more predictable and prolific option for fantasy production.
$1,500-$10,900 Salaries
Jared McCain, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder ($6,600)
The Thunder have incredible depth, confirmed by McCain becoming a high-volume movement shooter in Game 3. Willing to drive and attack close-outs, McCain is more than just a shooting specialist. He’s also supremely confident and willing to take on shots from all angles and depths. The price reflects the potential for a quiet game, while we know the upside is present.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs
8 p.m. ET on NBC
Line: Thunder +2.5 (-105) | Spurs -2.5 (-115)
Money line: Thunder +120 | Spurs -142
Total: 219.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Spurs by 1.1, straight up 54%, 220.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Thunder: Jalen Williams, (GTD – Hamstring); Ajay Mitchell, (OUT – Calf); Thomas Sorber, (OFS – Knee)
Spurs: David Jones Garcia, (OFS – Ankle)
